Flip

Maybe this is controversial, but I feel like Frozen II was kind of a disappointment. Given how big the first one was it should’ve done over 500m and closer to what Mario did than Finding Dory numbers

It can definitely do more than that, Parasite did 53m as a foreign language film without a built in fan base.

Also, if both Michael and Passion of the Christ stick to April 18th, we might have two movies doing over 100m on the same weekend for the first time ever

My list right now (DOM): 1. Avatar 3 (140/715) 2. Zootopia 2 *5-day OW (160/440) 3. Superman Legacy (148/410) 4. Michael (102/345 5. Passion of the Christ 2 (90/325) 6. Fantastic Four (110/300) 7. Snow White (93/281) 8. Mission Impossible 8 (85/255) 9. Jurassic World 4? (97/250) 10. Minecraft (94/235) 11. Blade (80/215) 12. Fast X (70/170) 13. Elio (49/168) 14. Captain America 4 (64/163) 15. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (86/154) a lot of these movies I need to see trailers for before making an estimate (Kendrick movie, Karate Kid, Mickey 17, Dog Man, dirty dancing) and some like Wicked part 2 are dependent on how the installment that hasn’t been released yet does.

If you search it up I think it says it’s releasing next year

Franspeech on Twitter has estimates in dollars that aren’t perfect, but are close enough

Will get lost in the flurry of Fall Guy posts but Mobile Suit Gundam is selling good compared to Spy X Family, but it has much less showings and no PLFs

100 less theaters than the last installment but that released during summer (drive ins + more theaters overall are open) and pre pandemic so it’s probably a similar share

Hard to put too much stock into it rn, let’s see how the weekend goes before declaring Fall Guy a disappointment

93% CGV for Fall Guy, it debuted to 35k admits plus its previews, but today was a holiday (every movie increased a lot) so it won’t make too much. Roundup is chugging along though and will pass 7.5m this weekend

I agree, the fact that Kung Fu Panda has over 3x legs even as it’s the worst received entry in the series shows how people are clamoring for family movies

Overall similar to mine which are: 1. Inside Out 2 (170/530) 2. Deadpool 3 (185/460) 3. DM4 (135 5-day/ 360) 4. Horizon 1 (51/172) 5. Bad Boys (58/168) 6. Quiet Place (59/167) 7. Garfield (49/158) 8. Horizon 2 (55/155) 9. Twisters (50/150) 10. Planet of the Apes (49/143) 11. Furiosa (42/135) 12. Fall Guy (30/96) 13. Alien Romulus (36/92) 14. IF (30/90) 15. Trap (29/79)

*Monday not Friday

Not sure where they’re getting a 30m 4-day for Garfield. It’s pacing ahead of Trolls 3 and when you take into account a holiday weekend which means minimal drops on Sunday and Friday I’d guess closer to 45 or 50 million

Anime is good idea for comps, I’d expect walkups to be similar if not a little stronger for TPM

I feel like if Fall Guy fails it sets the bar for success very high for other original action movies. If a strongly reviewed movie with zero competition starring the guy who stole the show in the biggest movie of last year can’t even open to 35m, how are less appealing films going to succeed?

Are there any rereleases you’ve tracked?

Godzilla X Kong opened to less than Godzilla Vs. Kong, but not by too much so with golden week it can probably pass the previous one’s gross

He’s right, this would be a great movie to find an audience on streaming so part 2 can draw in more people. I think it would do great over the holidays as counterprogramming to Mufasa and Sonic

Not only backloaded but also way more walk up friendly.

I looked at two (non-plf) theaters near me, and for next Friday Phantom Menace has 99 tickets sold while Fall Guy has only 68 tickets.

4M admits will be hit by tomorrow

Off topic but what are you expecting for Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 since both the originals were massive here (~900k admits). Similar admits to Avatar 2?

Roundup 3 Friday: 651,133 (1,986,123) much better Friday than last years edition

Phantom Menace should have a good chance at #2 next Friday unless it’s in less than 2.5k theaters