Flip

400m. Should have a big opening (for an animated movie), but WOM shouldn't be good considering it's a few episodes of a TV series meant for Disney+

massive wildcard. Obviously has the holidays and the beloved IP behind it, but Sonic is direct competition and TLM flopped last year. 430m.

if it didn't it would be the second Pixar sequel to not increase from the original with the only other one being Toy Story 4, which makes since both due to stretching the premise far and being the 3rd sequel, not the first. China already didn't come out for the first one, so the worst case scenario is it only loses 10m from Inside Out, and the best case scenario is that it improves from the original's performance. Normally I would think that it would disappoint in Korea, but off the back of Elemental it should get a sizeable boost there, maybe not enough to match the original's admits, but likely enough to match the gross.

has ATP been rising in recent years or has it been steady?

Probably 650-660m. It should drop around 110m in China, and lose 25m from not having Russia, but there should be some small increases elsewhere (LATAM, SE ASIA) that can help to offset it

For now I’d say 260-285m, mainly because of China dropping and an increase elsewhere unlikely for the 4th installment of a franchise

Every movie having at least decent scores is kind of crazy, usually there’s one dud at the least

600m sounds like a good mark to aim for

Just wanted to compile some of the presales Oppenheimer did to be able to compare to Dune 2: T-16: 40.1k T-14: 48.3k T-13: 66.1k T-12: 77.9k T-11: 89.4k T-10: 102.7k T-9: 114.9k T-8: 129.1k T-7: 147.7k T-6: 165.1k T-5: 185.8k T-4: 211.3k T-3: 261.3k T-2: 318.4k T-1: 395.9k T-0: 572.7k As you can see, relatively steady growth until T-3, when it more than doubled the previous day's increase. It's opening day was a holiday so it was inflated and didn't have a strong multiplier.

since i think Dune presales have only been up for a day, this would mean that it's almost doubled Oppy's opening day of presales. With that I'd say 3m admits is 90% guaranteed

20 days out with 35k presales is crazy. The only caveat is that it could be an early fan rush to get seats for premium screens, and if so we'll see slower growth than normal over the next week and a bit more

behind TLJ and TFA? 😭

but when you're talking about frontloadedness comparing a biopic to a concert movie which has much more fan rush and less wide appeal doesn't track. I'm not surprised presales aren't that high, because it won't be driven by fans in the way Renaissance or The Eras Tour were. Marley should definitely have more appeal to causals beyond OD than Renaissance and even Color Purple did.

Wonka OD worst case scenario should be like 140k, best case scenario would be like 220k. Eyeball prediction I'd say around 180k, but we'll see.

if Anyone but You holds steady or increases next weekend 2m admits should be more likely than not

I don't get comparing Bob Marley to Renaissance, concert movies have abnormally low legs. Color Purple makes decent sense but musician biopics have had long legs in the last decade or so (Elvis, Rocketman, Bohemian Rhapsody)

Just for reference the last time two movies released on a Valentine’s Day Wednesday were Daddy’s Little Girls and Music and Lyrics back in 2007. DLG was a Tyler Perry release that got an A- cinemascore and had a 6.84x multiplier off its OD. Music and Lyrics was a Hugh Grant romcom with a B cinemascore that legged out to 12.17 from its opening day. I’d expect Madame web to fall between the two, probably closer to 10-11x opening day. Bob Marley could possibly do 14-16x, assuming it’s well-received.

I’d guess at the minimum 3m OD

Madame Web might be outselling Aquaman near me 🙃

14.2m Weekend, increases in Germany and Spain, good debut in Italy. 200m is definitely in sight

the problem with Wonka is that there aren't that many recent movies with presales tracked that would be good comps, but if I had to guess maybe 700k 5day OW? All I know is that 1m admits is guaranteed and 2m is likelier than not

10 highest grossing territories might be something like: France: $42M United Kingdom: $40M Germany: $37M South Korea: $24M China: $21M Australia: $19M Spain: $18M Italy: $18M Mexico: $14M Japan: $13M would be an increase of ~55m from Dune's 10 highest countries.

Poor Things should have enough legs to pass Menu for highest grossing searchlight movie, especially if it wins BP and stone wins best actress

410-430m sounds good, as has been already said Europe will go crazy, China should drop 50%, the real question is if SK, Japan and LATAM will come out to see it