JJ-8

B can correct if I'm wrong but my understanding that the worldwide weekends must fall within the limits of the game - so after 1st May. So for AOU - for game purposes, the first worldwide weekend that counts is May 1st to 3rd which will be whatever AOU opens in the US + its second overseas weekend. Grosses before don't count for that question. However those grosses DO count towards the total worldwide.

i'm not convinced as yet... F&F6 - yeah ok 58% - it also didn't have holidays cushioning the blow (it came off the queens birthday long weekend) F&F5 - 45% ? (ok there isn't a good comparison here either... given it burnt off demand on the wednesday no apples for apples again. but it did fall on the easter weekend but it also had a second bonus with ANZAC day on the same weekend. I just don't know.. we are in new territory with a film opening this big at this time of the year. yeah ok we have openers this big over the anzac day weekend (FF5 / TA etc) but Easter has never produced something this big. I'd normally agree with a big dip... but i think the holidays will help hold the film a little more flat that normal. (yeah 50% will be a good hold for this film) I think > 60% seems a little on the high side here.. very rare for films to drop that heavy in Australia.

given it should be above 17m (probably closing in on 18m at this rate) by the end of monday, anyone thinking that 40m might be possible here ?. lets see: WE1 = 14.6m / 14.9m Projections from here: WE2 = 7.3m (-50%) / 27.5m WE3 = 4.0m / 34.0m WE4 = 1.6m / 36.5m (Avengers opens this weekend - 23rd April) WE5 = 900k / 37.8m WE6 = 500k / 38.5m WE7 = 300k / 38.9m WE8 = 39.1m WE9 = 39.2m ~ estimated 39m - 39.5m (I think 40m is possible if it can hold slightly better than i've shown.

preparing my super secret spreadsheet with all the calculations on how to get the top 15 "wrong" Also, I'd say it's time to dust off the old excel spreadsheets and update with the latest scoring systems........ (B - I'll probably do some updates to them also to make them easier to calc these things! )

BOM have it as 11.2 USD. that is around 14.3m?

that sounds like close to 15m (maybe even more) for the 4 normal 4 days........ That is just insane. if it's getting close to 18m for the 5 days that is! FYI - how massive is this... this would be the at a minimum the 8th biggest opening of all time. (it will become the 8th film to open above 14m here).... I'm thinking as high as 3rd spot (> 15.3m) is possible based on this...but lets see how sunday pans out...

Some big numbers coming from down under too. All in AUD. 0.3m wednesday previews. 3.3m OD (Thursday) Friday reported to be going gangbusters. Tracking for 14m+ and one of the biggest all time OW ever here. Fantastic results everywhere ATM. Bond?

Woah. Massive start. I mean I expected big but this big??? Nice!

Here are your ten questions...answers are due, in this thread, by Wednesday at 11:59 pm forums time. 1) Will FF7 make more than 7.5 mill for the early shows? YES 2) Will FF7 open to more than 42 million on Friday (including early shows) YES 3) Will FF7 fall less than 25% on Sunday? YES 4) Will FF7 open to more than 100 mill? YES 5) Will FF7 open to more than 250 mill WW (yes I'm aware it opens early in many markets....whatever number is reported Sunday from all markets since it opened will count)? YES 6) Will Get Hard drop more than 46%? YES 7) Will FF7 open to more than 13.5 mill in UK? YES 8) Will FF7 open to more than 6.5 mill in Brazil? NO 9) Will FF7 open to more than 12 mill in Australia? YES 10) Will Kingsman fall less than 30%? YES What films finish is spots 4 The Divergent Series: Insurgent 5 Cinderella 7 Kingsman: The Secret Service 8 It Follows 10 The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 500 points each, 2500 bonus if you get all 5 spots right. That's part A. Part B] If you agree to go for this question, you must answer three of these right, and question five is mandatory. So you have to answer two other questions. If you decide to go for this and you answer it correctly, you get 15,000 points. If you get even one wrong, you lose 25,000 points. No exceptions. No points for abstaining. So just to make it clear, you have to choose two other questions to answer plus number 5. Here we go: 1) Will FF7 make more than 260 million? YES 2) Will FF7 gross more than 850 mill WW? ignored 3) Will FF7 gross more than 120 mill combined in Russia and China? ignored 4) Will FF7 gross more than 7 million in midnights/early shows? YES 5) Will FF7 gross come within 40 million of Jurassic World (it can be higher or lower than JW but it has to be within 40 mill)? NO Good luck!!

Insurgent is continuing to run around 30% higher than Divergent did last year...... not bad at all... I'd hoped for more but i should have known better. Insurgent should easily manage 12m at this rate possibly an outside shot at 15m. (Divergent fell short of 11m in the end opening in a similar timeframe to when easter fell but with a lot more competition around it) Not a bad start for Cinderella. Should see reasonable holds in the coming weeks with the holidays rolling out around the country. I would say a total north of 15m at this point but given it's holds stateside i'm not 100% sure yet... but i think it's still likely. Of course Home will do the same if not a few boosts if Spongebob doesn't still its thunder.... Home did dip 42% this weekend but a total north of 10m is still very likely at this point. Speaking of Spongebob... should open above 3m... but is 4m or more possible, especially given the fact it's opening in the shadow of Furious 7..... i'm not sure. and as for Furious 7. it's opening on Easter this year. F&F6 managed 11.3m for the 4 day weekend over the queens birthday long weekend. Furious 7 not only has the Monday public holiday but also the friday public holiday to make $ and it also opens on wednesday night in select theatres.... I get the feeling of an event film here... less than 10m for the 4 days would in my opinion would be a miss here... I going with around 12m as my conservative prediction for this but i could easily see an opening (thanks to the PW factor) > 15m.....

For some reason i'm just so excited about this years game........... Probably will still come in around 1000th place like always though

ok so Insurgent opens this weekend coming. Although i didn't see Divergent in cinemas, i'm seriously thinking about seeing this one though. (I've got Divergent on Blueray and i love it!) What does everyone think it will open with: for comparison: Divergent opened to 3.1m but that had a ton of competition especially given it opened in 3rd behind the 2nd weekends of The Lego Movie and Captain America The Winter Soldier. Even more so it faced TASM2 in it's second weekend (yeah ok that turned out to be not as strong) but still this is the case. Divergent also only got a 233 screen count which is quite for low for a film that was intended to be so much higher. Expecting a much higher count for insurgent (at least 300 possibly 400 given the lack of competition.) Is 6m too much to expect for Insurgent ? My predictions for the main openers this weekend: Insurgent - 6.2m Home 3D - 2.1m (expect a leggy run through easter for this one though) Run all Night - 680k

FSOG should wind up just past 24m at the rate it's dipping. Which disappointing given the size of the opening. But then again still very successful anyway. Kings man tracking still toying with 20m. (I'd say 19m + is tracking well. But 20m isn't dead yet. )

Am wondering if this game has completely died ...... ? could be convinced to pick it up again if there interest.....

I'm more impressed with Kingsman than how shades has performed... Shades: 10m+ OW ... will be lucky to reach 25m at this rate. Kingsman : 4m OW ... is going to get very close to 20m at this rate... though next 2 weekends (after the weekend we are in) could see some big hits... 19th March - Insurgent 5m+ ? (I think it could open bigger than the firsts 3.1m given less competition it now faces ~ Divergent faced The Lego Movie & CA2 in their 2nd weeks and TASM 2 opened the week after meaning it was sandwiched between all that.) 19th March - Home 2.5m (could be a surprise hit here given every time my kids see the trailer for this, they go nuts for it!) gonna be a leggy run though with easter coming up. 26th March - Cinderalla 10m (it could go as low as 6m but i'd consider it a miss at that point, but if the WOM on this is true - been good stateside so far - then 12m+ might even be possible here. 26th March - Shaun the Sheep Forgot this got made... i'm so there OW .... sorry just couldn't resist... this makes more than 1m ....... umm i dunno. either way expect some impressive holds over the easter holidays (ok save me i'm now singing the shaun the sheep tune........) It doesn't let up either: 2nd April - Furious 7 - 12m ... is that possible (especially if cinderalla does it a week earlier) - heck it could higher given the paul walker factor, and don't forget F&F 6 made 11.1m over it's first 4 days ~ it did on the queens b'day weekend but still impressive.) 2nd April - Spongebob If Furious wasn't opening on the same weekend then i'd go with 4m+ but i'm thinking 3m with legs through the easter holidays. ok nothing i can see after that for a few weeks until... (I'll just post up some numbers to chew on for now......) 23rd April - Avengers Age of Ultron (OD = 7m; OW = 16m ~ not going for the record just yet, but it's not impossible to believe) 14th May - Mad Max Fury Road (4m and i think i'm optimistic on this) 21st May - Tomorrowland (5m - this shows so much promise so i'm hedging my bets either way with this prediction... could go haywire or could blow this out of the water......) 28th May - San Andreas (6m - daring i know.. but i love the trailer and the fact it's filmed in my backyard ) (I won't go any further for now)

Mar 12th - 18th 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron 2. The Divergent Series: Insurgent 3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5. San Andreas 6. Jurassic World 7. Tomorrowland 8. Inside Out 9. SPECTRE 10. Furious 7

impressive start for Cinderalla.... i'd say a 70m+ OW is in order here...

Decided it's time to join in Mar 5th - 11th 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron 2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 4. San Andreas 5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent 6. Tomorrowland 7. Jurassic World 8. Inside Out 9. SPECTRE 10. Furious 7

loving this list too so far Tele... Loving Bill & Ted made the cut... damn i love that film too .... might have to go and watch it again

while it didn't reach the totals i posted earlier, the rain just kept on hanging around. The system actually got off the coast, started to strengthen again which meant it started wrapping the rain around hence it took ages too clear (why the game was cancelled.) Also highly doubt the movies were affected, I went to chermside shopping centre this afternoon... it was nigh on impossible to get a carpark there ... lol sure there were impacts on the smaller cinemas (eg. i doubt Rocky will be open for quite a while) but the bigger ones i doubt were affected in the end. anyway any news on how big the drop is for 50 shades (last bit of info was for thursday a few posts back)

hard to tell, but we are getting hourly totals of 25mm to 75mm depending where u are....... so far brisbane city (CBD guage) has had 84mm overnight + 18mm so far this morning but the main stormfront is still approaching the CBD (i'm on the northside and it's been constant for over 2.5 hrs now. Caboolture (to the north of me) has managed 200mm+ to 9am (overnight mostly this morning) with a further 60mm since 9am. (approx). radar shows it's just finishing up there in the past half hour or so. I would think that Brisbane City / Gabba area would be looking at 100mm - 200mm totals before the game even starts.. so the drainage will have to be pretty good i think.

yep. absolutely torrential on the northside of brisbane right up to the sunshine coast at the moment... at least the wind hasn't really picked up yet though. Hard to tell at this stage... but i think the Union game (Reds) will go ahead now .. but no sure. And Cricket is still up in the air, but if this clears quickly enough and it appears to moving a little faster this morning (EX TC that is), then we may get a 20 - 20 match at least. (the min required to finish a game)

not sure what impacts if any will be seen to the box office over the next day or so.... TC Marcia causing some havoc currently in central queensland but forecasts expecting some big impacts from ex TC as it passes over South East QLD / Brisbane. Mostly winds up to 100km/hr and lots and lots of rain.... crazy stuff... given there are a few sites in the top 10 normally nationally (chermside; robina often make it) i suspect we may see some minor impacts to bo from here.. hard to tell though as the greatest impacts are today / tomorrow.

Nice! Very impressive opening here