JJ-8

of interest ROTK made 8m mids/tues sneaks and 34.5m OD. With an 11m tues sneaks, that the OD should be above 30m. 35m+ is possible. Say: Wed 33m Thurs 16m Fri 20m Sat 24m Sun 18m That would be a 111m 5 day.

some further (not so good comparisons) for 2014: It appears that we will only have 1 (likely 2 after the hobbit 3 does it ) film pass the 30m mark this year. #films over the years that have passed 30m: 2014: 2 films 2013: 5 films 2012: 6 films (4 past 40m, 1 past 50m) 2011: 3 films (1 past 50m) 2010: 6 films (2 past 40m) 2009: 4 films (1 past 110m) 2008: 4 films (1 past 40m) 2007: 4 films 2006: 3 films 2005: 3 films 2004: 3 films (1 past 50m) 2003: 3 films (1 past 40m) 2002: 4 films (1 past 40m) 2001: 3 films (2 past 40m) 2000: 1 film As you can see 2014 is stuggling to get the same # of films that 2000 got. of note. unless mockingjay 1 or the hobbit 3 pass 35.6m, then this years number 1 will be lowest since 2000 when gladiator rained supreme with a mere 31.1m. (as it stands, mockingjay should pass that sometime in the next week or so. and i think the hobbit 3 should also make it past that mark)

Due thursday midnight as normal ?

Interesting fact about this year: the #1 film (released this year that is) has changed as follows: The Book Thief (9th Jan to 30th Jan) The Wolf of Wall Street (31st Jan to 20th April) The Lego Movie (21st April to ? December ? ) 3 movies total so far... Mockinjay Part 1 will become the 4th film sometime this week. #1 films by month (Grosses made during month) January = Frozen (dominated by carryovers with hobbit 2 in 2nd place here) February = The Wolf of Wall Street (wolf also was the biggest film released in january) March = The Monuments Men (very weak month in the end) April = The Lego Movie (nearest rival captain america trailed by nearly 8m) May = Bad Neighbours June = 22 Jump Street (Transformers failed take top either month as it's gross was split) July = Dawn of the Planet of the Apes August = Guardian's of the Galaxy September = Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Maze Runner was making a run for this one but fell short by 4m) October = Gone Girl (was more than double the next highest for the month) November = The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (Interstellar trailed by about 5m for the month) December (Current**) = The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 ** final December #1 won't be decided until the boxing day films open. slight chance that the hobbit 3 makes in the short 5 days it has in 2014)

And then i saw the hobbit, Now I'm a believer not a trace of doubt in my mind. i'm so happy i'm a believer....

is it just me or is this a perfect situation for something like the hobbit 3 to break out beyond the previous films and get back to LOTR levels ? (one last time ) I could be wrong though and everything is just bad at the moment.......

All the usual rules and deadlines apply. 1. Will Exodus gross more than 30M? 3000 YES 2. Will Top 5 finish above Hunger Games? NO 3. Will Top 5 have a higher PTA than Exodus? 2000 YES 4. Will Horrible Bosses finish above Big Hero 6? NO 5. Will the Penguins gross more than 2M on Saturday? YES 6. Will Birdman stay in the top 12? NO 7. Will Imitation Game Finish in the top 15? YES 8. What will have the higher PTA Free the Nipple or Inherent Vice? FREE THE NIPPLE 9. Name any film in the top 20 that decreases less than 23% WITHOUT INCREASING (or select none if none will)? 3000 NONE 10. Will Hunger Games pass $275M total Domestic gross by SATURDAY? 3000 NO 11. Will Dumb and Dumber drop more than 51%? YES 12. Name any film with a total gross more than $1M that drops more than 70% this weekend (outside top 12 is fine) or choose none? NONE 13. Will Interstellar overtake Gone Girl's Total Gross by the end of Friday? YES 14. Will any film increase or decrease more than $1M from the BOM official Weekend estimates? YES 15. Will Fury fall more than 38% on Sunday? NO 12/15 3000 points 13/15 4000 points 14/15 5000 points 15/15 7000 points Bonus 1: What will Exodus' Weekend Gross be? 33.436m Bonus 2:What will be the difference in gross between Hunger Games and Top 5 (order irrelevent)? 2.339m Bonus 3: What will the Imitation Game's PTA be? 14.333k Placements: 3. Top five 5. Big hero 6 7. Interstellar 8. Theory of everything 10. Dumb and dumber to 12. Bird man 2000 points each, all 6 is a bonus of 8000.

I think we are nearly one the last markets to get it. In saying that Boxing Day openings have been very kind to the middle earth films here. Single biggest movie day of the year usually.

I am yet to see IS

Yep. Horrible week

true... but summer bay is kinda not real Bells Bay is one of the most famous surfing locations in Australia if not the world. Just hoping they don't cop out like Hollywood does usually and end it somewhere like Hawaii.

yeah I know... I guess the studio doesn't want to wait that long and to be honest it's minions which is moving forward instead of delaying... minions isn't open stateside until early july. Also don't forget monster trucks opens on the 4th june on top of these 2......

I just don't know if the film was worth redoing as I think the original is still brilliant. Still it's possible that this breaks out here in Australia especially if it finishes at bells bay like that last one.

It's the first weekend in the June School holidays is why they are doing it. This is has been happening for ages and to be honest hasn't been the best for either film when it's done. One of the few years where it was split was Shrek 3 vs Toy Story 3 and Shrek 3 went for prelease giving it a 2 week headstart on TS3.

other possible hits (though I admit could go either way: 12th Feb - Fifty Shades 19th March - Insurgent 21st May - Tomorrowland (don't know it's 20m+ material but could surprise again) 18th June - Minions (yes it's a spinoff but from a 35m movie... so who knows) 18th June - Inside out (hmmmm another animation showdown ?) 25th June - Terminator: Genisys ~ i'm leaning towards a no on this one but it's still possible 16th July - Ant-man Marvel on a role ? seriously they couldn't see success with a film like this one... But then who would have picked Guardians making it past 25m Other films for which I can't find an Australia release date so far but are due in 2015: Point Break (2015) ~ if it's any good then it's stands a chance of breaking out.. but does in finish in Australia like last time .. not sure on this ? (kung fu panda 3 isn't still 1st Jan 2016 so fully 2016 even though it's out in 2015 in the USA EDIT - updated dates

Sorry its so late: All the usual rules and deadlines apply. 1. Will The Pyramid open in the top 3? 3000 NO 2. Will Big Hero 6 gross within 2.5M of Penguins for the weekend? NO 3. Will Interstellar drop less than 47% YES 4. Will Foxcatcher finish in the top 10? YES 5. Will Beyond the Lights finish above Fury? NO 6. Will Hunger Games Gross double the weekend gross of 2nd place? 2000 YES 7. Will Dumb abd Dumber increase more than 125% on Friday? YES 8. Will The One I wrote For You have a PTA above $3000? YES 9. Will the THeory of Everything's TOTAL GROSS overtake Beyond the Lights' TOTAL GROSS by the end of Sunday? YES 10. Will the Imitation game finish in the top 12? 3000 NO 11. Will Horrible Bosses drop more than 58%? YES 12. Will John WickFinish ahead of Whiplash? NO 13. Which film will have the smallest drop for the weekend (excluding increases)? ST VINCENT 14. Will Big Hero 6 pass 185M total Gross? 2000 YES 15. Will anybody remember this weekend ever happened? NOT LIKELY 12/15 3000 points 13/15 4000 points 14/15 5000 points 15/15 7000 points Bonus 1: What will Pyramid's Weekend Gross be? 4.555m Bonus 2:What will Big HEro and Penguin's combined Saturday gross be? 8.114m Bonus 3: What will be the difference in weekend gross between Interstellar and Horrible Bosses this weekend? 1.111m Placements: 3. Big hero 6 4. Interstellar 9. ST Vincent 10. Gone girl 12.fury 15. Nightcrawler 2000 points each, all 6 is a bonus of 8000.

Pretty sure I've got the max bonus for q1 and 3 .

Looking at that.. I think that 36m is possible for mockingjay. A total somewhere between 35m and 39m is where it should end.

Wk New Moon Goblet of Fire The Hunger Games Catching Fire Mockinjay Part 1 19-Nov-2009 1-Dec-2005 22-Mar-2012 21-Nov-2013 20-Nov-2014 1: 16.1m/16.1m 12.4m/14.4m 9.1m/9.1m 12.5m/12.5m 11.9m/11.9m Scns/Ave - 552/22,383 471/19,218 580/21,545 574/20,771 2: 6.0m/26.3m 5.1m/20.9m 4.8m/16.2m 6.8m/22.7m 5.8m/20.9m 3: 2.6m/30.8m 2.6m/25.6m 3.2m/21.3m 3.5m/28.3m 4: 1.6m/33.6m 1.2m/28.2m 2.3m/26.0m 2.2m/32.0m 5: 964k/35.3m 1.5m/31.1m 1.5m/28.4m 1.4m/34.4m 6: 492k/36.4m 886k/33.0m 683k/29.8m 1.1m/36.0m 7: 403k/37.4m 563k/34.2m 398k/30.4m 838k/37.5m 8: 216k/37.8m 346k/34.9m 184k/30.7m 470k/38.5m 9: 123k/38.1m 163k/35.2m 101k/30.9m 269k/39.0m 10: 44k/31.0m TOTAL: 38.7m 35.7m 31.1m 39.19m 20.87m 36m

So, Horrible Bosses 2 already missed the top 7 and I would Penguins is all but locked to miss the top 7 at this point unless the hobbit 3 completely collapses (which I just don't see as possible especially given it has 5 days to make more than penguins did.. ) FYI - the lowest prediction for the hobbit 3 is 60m. And also nearly everyone had Exodus in their top 7 which means dumb and dumber to should drop off this chart also. Realistically, both Annabelle and gone girl could survive in the top 7 opening weekends of the season... who saw that coming ?

Domestic Top 7 Opening Weekend Standings Top 7 Opening Weekends as of December 1st 2014. (Films predicted are highlighted in BOLD) 1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 - 121.898m 2. Big Hero 6 - 56.216m 3. Interstellar - 49.662m ** 4. Gone Girl - 37.513m 5. Annabelle - 37.134m 6. Dumb and Dumber To - 36.112m 7. Penguins of Madagascar - 35.439m ** Not in top 7 (but predicted below) 10. Horrible Bosses 2 - 22.771m ** ** # includes all grosses till first Sunday. The following colors only apply to films in the Top 7 Opening Weekends: If your prediction is in GOLD, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $1m. You get 40,000 points! If your prediction is in PURPLE, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $2.5m. You get 35,000 points! If your prediction is in BRIGHT GREEN, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $5m. You get 30,000 points! If your prediction is in BLUE, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $10m. You get 25,000 points! If your prediction is in DARK GREEN, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $15m. You get 20,000 points! If your prediction is in PINK, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $20m. You get 15,000 points! If your prediction is in GREY, the prediction is in the top 7 AND within $30m. You get 10,000 points! If your prediction is in BLACK, the prediction is in the top 7 AND not within $30m. You get SAFE (0)! The following colors only apply to films that did not make the Top 7 Opening Weekends: If your prediction is in RED, the prediction is not in the top 7 AND within $30m. You lose 7,000 points (-7,000)! If your prediction is in RED strikethru, the prediction is not in the top 7 AND not within $30m. You lose 17,000 points (-17,000)! OCTOBER GONE GIRL (7/23) avi - 57m grim22 - 52m Alpha - 50m iceroll - 43m Snoopy of Suburbia - 38m Actual OW - 37.513m bcf26 - 37m Spaghetti - 33m ANNABELLE (1/23) Grey Ghost - 38m Actual OW - 37.134m NOVEMBER BIG HERO 6 (23/23) mahnamahna - 68.5m avi - 68m Spaghetti - 67m Empire - 66m Alpha - 65m Snoopy of Suburbia - 65m DAJK - 65m Blankments - 64m bcf26 - 64m iceroll - 63m Geraldino - 62m darkelf - 61m Telemachos - 59m chasmmi - 57m laguy03 - 57m Jajang - 56.3m Actual OW - 56.216m Wrath - 55m grim22 - 53m Filmovie - 50m The Panda - 50m Grey Ghost - 48m cmasterclay - 48m Punishment - 40m INTERSTELLAR (23/23) mahnamahna - 97m Jajang - 91.4m darkelf - 89m bcf26 - 88m The Panda - 85m chasmmi - 84m Geraldino - 84m Empire - 83m DAJK - 83m Blankments - 81m Alpha - 80m Filmovie - 80m Wrath - 80m grim22 - 79m Spaghetti - 78m iceroll - 78m Telemachos - 78m cmasterclay - 74m avi - 65m laguy03 - 61m Punishment - 55m Snoopy of Suburbia - 54m Grey Ghost - 52m Actual OW - 49.662m DUMB AND DUMBER TO (4/23) chasmmi - 41m mahnamahna - 40.5m The Panda - 40.000000001m Filmovie - 40m Actual OW - 36.112m THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY - PART 1 (23/23) Jajang - 173.4m Punishment - 165m avi - 162m iceroll - 161m Wrath - 160m cmasterclay - 160m Geraldino - 157m DAJK - 156m Snoopy of Suburbia - 155m darkelf - 155m laguy03 - 155m Telemachos - 155m Filmovie - 154m Spaghetti - 154m Empire - 153m Blankments - 153m grim22 - 152m Grey Ghost - 150m The Panda - 150m mahnamahna - 148.5m chasmmi - 147m Alpha - 145m bcf26 - 133m Actual OW - 121.898m PENGUINS OF MADAGASCAR (21/23) Wrath - 75m iceroll - 60m grim22 - 60m Telemachos - 60m Geraldino - 57m Blankments - 54m laguy03 - 51m Empire - 50m Filmovie - 49m Jajang - 47.5m darkelf - 47m mahnamahna - 46.5m Alpha - 45m cmasterclay - 45m avi - 44m DAJK - 44m chasmmi - 43m Snoopy of Suburbia - 43m The Panda - 40m Spaghetti - 36m Actual OW - 35.439m Punishment - 25m HORRIBLE BOSSES 2 (3/23) Empire - 58m Filmovie - 51m Jajang - 39.2m Actual OW - 22.771m

Thanks chas!

Hobbit 3 for me too. I'm seeing an increase both Dom and WW from #2.

Chas. up to u whether u'll accept but I'm posting here anyway (tech I could post in the thread being a mod and all but as I'm late. ) Ok, gonna try a one of special set of questions for this week. Instead of a bunch of mostly yes/no questions, this week every question (apart from the Placements) will be a Bonus Question. To score the points you must predict to within the parameters given in brackets for the question. e.g. Q1 (What will Star Wars gross on Friday ($10M)? - On this scenario if your prediction is with 10M in either direction you win the points. As a bonus the closest predictor on each question will score 3000 bonus points and the second and third closest will score 1000 bonus points. All Question will refer to the top 12 Domestic 3 (THREE NOT FIVE) DAY Weekend and be worth 1000 points UOS. 1. What will Hunger Games gross this Weekend ($5M)? 2000 59.501m 2. What will Horrible Bosses 2's Total be by the end of Sunday ($4M)? 31.333m 3. What will Penguins Gross on SATURDAY ($2M)? 3000 9.501m 4. What will be the PTA for Imitation Game? ($3,000)? 33k 5. What will Interstellar's percentage drop from last weekend be (3%)? -12.1% 6. What will Dumb and Dumber's Friday percentage Increase be (10%)? 85% 7. What will Big Hero 6 Weekend Gross be ($2M)? 21.444m 8. What will Gone Girl's Total be come the end of Sunday (500k)? 3000 159.664m 9. What will be Birdman's PTA for the weekend ($300)? 1505 10. What will be Fury's percentage drop for the Weekend (4%)? -18.443% 11. What will be the combined gross of the top 3 movies ($8M)? 118.331m 12. What will be the combined gross of all reported films on BOM ($15M)? 3000 183.448m 8/12 2000 points 9/12 3000 points 10/12 4000 points 11/12 5000 points 12/12 8000 points Placements 2. Penguins 3. Hb2 5. Interstellar 9. Theory of everything 11. Fury 13. Nightcrawler Get all 6 for a bonus of 8000 points Deadline is the usual Thursday evening deadline

if the early numbers are true... HB2 ain't coming close to 50m... frankly it will be lucky if it makes the top 7 on that early number.