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JJ-8

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Everything posted by JJ-8

  1. I have no words. This performance is beyond anything I predicted. I mean I though it could reach the OD record but but if it did not ow. Just wow
  2. So much a different path than any of us thought..... w - 10.29 th - 9.7? fr - 9? s - 10-12m? (Running double IW according to RTH at the point. ) does WS this look close to correct @RtheEnd
  3. Ok so went to bed here. At least 43m previews. Wake up to 60m POV, ~150m OD and that’s conservative according to our local god. Woah boy. Just insane. Historic weekend. I mean the indications especially after the AU performance so far. (29m AUD in 3 days and early sat pacing DOUBLE IW sat putting anotting another 10m on the table. ) my guess is now for a 330m-350m (floor is 300m now i believe)
  4. To really put this in perspective, IW did 29m over its first 5 days. So if u assume the USA / domestic increases proportionally you 398m OW. Wow! Sticking with 300 but those saying 350m aren’t sounding so crazy now. Just insane.
  5. ok so.... OD = 10.29m Thurs = 9.5m - 10m Fri - 8.7m - 9.2m ? Sat ?????? Where the hell does this go from that... ~ normally we see a bump from fri - sat but as a min it's flat if friday played more like a holiday....... the correct trajectory should see a Sat in the range of 11m - 12m but that just seems......... woah! and then sunday around 8m so my updated projections are :- Sat = 11.3m Sun = 8.5m OW ~ 38.5m (is that even possible ?) Total by COB sunday = 48m - 49m I mean even if it's more like :- Sat = 10m (say flat with thurs) Sun = 7.9m OW = 36.6m (i'd say unless we see a major drop off, the floor for the OW is 35m) and a total of 45 - 46m So at this point i have a range of 35m - 39m for the OW and a total somewhere between 45m and 50m on sunday night. 2nd weekend ~ 15m - 19m. and a total between 65m and 75m 3rd weekend ~ 8m - 12m ~ 78m to 91m you get the picture.... I see a range of 90m to 120m (I am now on the 100m train in AUD for AEG at this point - and i agree @Robertron the absolute floor has to be 85m at this point and those legs would be horrible from here.)
  6. I do believe thats the biggest scale they've ever shown
  7. If it's 40 after Sunday, I'd say 60m+ by the of the 2nd weekend. 80m would be the floor with 100m only some legs away......
  8. Yeah day 2 (the holiday landed on day 2 this year) is up over 140% over IW (According to RTH day 2 is between 9.5 and 10m AUD. Means AEG just put up the biggest and 2nd biggest days ever in Australia. EDIT and in local currency it's up 17% on day 1. (10.2 Vs 8.7)
  9. Then I think 30m ow is done and AEG passes 40m in 5 days.
  10. woah... just got back and loved this film..... 1 hell of a emotional ride and the final send off is perfect i believe! not saying anymore to avoid spoiling this... i already want to go and see it again
  11. surely 1 10m day is enough ? nah... go for gold.... unless there is a massive drop off, not sure how this misses the OW record now ? (would be funny if it actually beats it's 1 day old record for single day on it's second day........)
  12. Domestic: $295,803,500 Overseas: $706,504,900 Worldwide: $1,002,308,400 China: ¥2,011,999,000
  13. woah... well i've put my preseason in...... that took some effort to work that all out... hopefully this year i'll do a little better and actually reach the top 10!
  14. no... you are talking about IW's total in USD... IW made 63m in AUD which is what all the projected numbers and the 10.2m OD is in .
  15. 25m is a extrapolation based upon EG OD being 17% improvement over IW.... however given RTH's comment above that Anzac Day is looking huge... i'm thinking above 25m (which is think is the floor at this point) Wed - 10.2m Thurs - 8m Fri - 5.5m Sat - 7.9m Sun - 6.1m that would be 27.5m OW (pretty much matching TFA's OW record) and a running total of 37.7m tbh that thrusday number is the real question... i suspect it could land anywhere from 6m to 9m at the moment.
  16. Part A: 1. Will Avengers Open to more than $260M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Avengers Open to more than $300M? 2000 No 3. Will Avengers Open to more than $280M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Avengers Saturday increase from its true Friday (excluding Thursday previews)? 4000 Yes 5. Will Will Avengers' make more than 82.5% of all the box office of every film reported by BOM when actuals are released? 5000 Yes 6. Will La Larona drop less than 56%? 1000 No 7. Will Pet Semetary stay above Us? 2000 Yes 8. Will Avengers Endgame overtake Dumbo's Domestic total on its opening day? 3000 Yes 9. Will any film in the top 15 drop more than 65%? 4000 Yes 10. Will Hellboy's PTA stay above $750? 5000 No 11. Will Little increase more than 40% on Saturday? 1000 Yes 12. Will Shazam drop more than 33% on Sunday? 2000 Yes 13. Will the White Crow have a PTA above $12k? 3000 No 14. Will After stay above PEnguins? 4000 No 15. Will Captain Marvel decrease less than 20%? 5000 No 16. Will Shazam's domestic total on Saturday be closer to the domestic total of Dumbo or How to Train Your Dragon? 1000 How to Train your Dragon 17. Will Pet Semetary have the worst PTA in the top 10? 2000 Yes 18. Will Breakthrough overtake Hellboy DOmestically by the end of the weekend? 3000 Yes 19. How many films will make more than $2.5M this weekend? 4000 7 Films 20. Will Thanos ultimately be defeated by the power of friendship? 5000 Uh the Russo Brothers are gonna make Thanos win another round... so he won't be defeated... NO NO NO... thanos is a god and rules all Bonus: 12/20 3000 13/20 5000 14/20 8000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 20,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Avengers make for its 3 day OW? 295.805m 2. What will Dumbo's Sunday gross be? 755k 3. What will Missing Link's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $810 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Avengers: Endgame 3. Shazam! 6. Little 8. Pet Sematary (2019) 9. Us 11. Penguins Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000
  17. i'll be settling in just over 3 hours to AEG... so looking forward to it with all the great reports so far! avoiding spoilers like the plague at the moment! PS - looking around the Australian cinemas - there are as many sellouts as yesterday.... it will be very interesting where this lands today especially after a 10.2m OD (in AUD) (first time ever crossing 10m in a single day for a single film)
  18. i'd say under but don't forget IW did 8.7m on anzac day last year (but that was it's OD)
  19. ok negating the fact that the public holiday is day 2 of this (day 1 of the weekend), i have the following projections based upon a 10.2m OD for AEG OW Projection :- 25m (if the public holiday is factored i suspect this could go higher and threaten TFA's OW record.....) so an extrapolation for a potential domestic opening puts the OW at 301m (id put down a range of 290m - 310m at the moment.) EDIT : I used IW as the base for this but who knows how this will play out
  20. Actually normally you can use a 10 to 1 ratio for comparing the US and Australia. the perfect example was titanic 600m US and 57m in AUD so very close. however comic book films tend a little less on the ratio (ie. more towards to the US) Infinity War ~ 680m Dom vs 63m AU And OW :- TFA ~ 27m AU vs 247m US IW ~ 21m* vs 258m US and OD IW 9.7m vs 106m * the OW for IW did not include the 9.7m OD which was the day ahead of the OW so based upon all this : if we get a 11m OD here down under then i'd say around 115m+ OD seems possible domestic
  21. must be a nsw thing.. in QLD there are no sessions starting before 1.40pm - 2.20pm tomorrow. (most start at 1.45p)
  22. i''m surprised George St is open at 10m given it's anzac day tomorrow ? i'm seeing it tomorrow afternoon at no lakes
  23. 1. Avengers, Lion King, and Pikachu's combined OW will be: B. Between $550M and $650M 2. Godzilla 2's China Box office will be: ABSTAIN 3. Avengers' Total admissions in South Korea will be: ABSTAIN 4. Secret Life of Pets 2's UK gross will be: B. Between $40M and $55M 5. The film with the best mulitplier will be: C. Toy Story 4 6. Avengers' number of weekends in the domestics top 5 + Lion King's number of weekends in the domestics top 5 + Toy Story's number of weekends in the domestics top 5 will be: B. 14-16 7. Toy Story 4's Domestic Gross divided by Child's Play and Annabelle's combined Domestic Gross will be: A. Less than 2.75 8. Hobbs and Shaw's Overseas (excluding Domestic) Box office will be: A. Less than $700M
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