MovieMan89

Oh I'm well aware it will be driven by kids, I'm just talking about the older fanbase of the first. The first was huge because it ended up having appeal to many demos.

Whether or not that is the whole plot of the film, it sure does look like they're going to market it that way. Thankfully this is a movie that doesn't need to rely too much on marketing.

$13m is a good start, but I am interested to see how frontloaded it is after some of the pre-sale breakdowns. This could do high 30's to low 60's for the 4 day with that number depending on how it plays. $13m would give it a 29% preview share vs G.I. Joe's 21%.

6 years is just an extremely odd direct sequel gap. I'm trying to even think of another one off the top of my head, or even in the 5-7 range. The Cars sequels and Sherlock Gnomes are the only animated ones in that range if I'm not mistaken. And while I'm not about to compare Frozen 2 to those movies, it is worth noting that all of them definitely had a big drop off. WiR2 will be in the same 6 year boat as F2 as well though. Almost every animated sequel falls into the 2-4 year gap or the Pixar category of a decade+.

I feel like there's an audience who was really on board with it back in 2013/2014 that now kind of treats it like the plague though. It just got so overbearing that I think it started to turn off a lot of people who actually liked it at the time. So I'd be interested if that has an effect.

Btw, I keep wanting to refer to Jumanji 3 as Jumanji 2 and then having to remind myself it's 3, lol. WTTJ totally feels like the first movie in a new franchise.

I think Jumanji 3 increasing would be borderline impossible. This one was just too much of a right time, novel hook situation that I don't think can be duplicated in the franchise. All the competition won't help either. 300+ should be a good target if it's well liked, imo. I'm curious about Frozen 2's audience. Are current 4-10 year olds into it on the level of the ones in that age group when the first came out? That seems unlikely to me. And then we get to the target demo of the first one and it will be interesting how it appeals to them. Most of them will be 11-16 and possibly not have much of any interest in the movie. The gap is a weird one because that's not a good age range to try to target an audience's childhood nostalgia. Late teens/early 20's is far more effective for that ala TS3.

IX will likely open below TLJ due to TLJ's reception and lack of a big hook for the finale like ROTS and ROTJ had. If IX is just as divisive, then things could get ugly from there in terms of a multi. I think far more of the GA will take a wait and see approach than with the previous SW films. Bond is also likely to feel the sting of Spectre's ho-hum reception in its OW and will probably need great WOM to avoid a decrease total. With the caveat to that being if they really play up it being Craig's farewell performance in the role. WW2, F2, and J3 are all in good positions if the WOM is solid. Though all three also have next to no chance of increasing from the huge heights of their predecessor. So basically, I'd say there's a very strong chance all of these 5 films decrease from their predecessors.

RPO needs to be pulling at least 10m on Thursday with previews if it's that frontloaded. Anything less will be really bad for the 4 day.

I've had the split transaction thing happen twice. Ended up paying for a friend's ticket entirely without knowing that would happen cause it was discount Tuesday so the money MP put on my card for a normal ticket was enough for both tickets that day, and they swiped my MP first. So far, so good though. No yearly plan though.

The yearly subscription makes far more sense how they could actually turn a profit with such a low monthly price. I had told several friends about it who I think were planning to get it just for the summer blockbusters and then cancel. Wouldn't have been surprised if a lot of people had done that, in which case I don't know how they could have possibly sustained that. I'm sure it's not a coincidence they stopped the monthly subscription a month before summer season.

They could just as easily be worse than expected though if this has indeed only been appealing to a niche fanboy audience in the marketing. That's been the issue here all along, has marketing targeted casuals effectively?

Yikes. Going from 45-55 to 38-42 isn’t a good sign. High 30s is what I’ve been suspecting for the 4 day for weeks, looks like that might be right on.

True, it's not like MP still isn't paying them for each ticket.

Lol, well so much for me saying they don't have bargaining power yet. Hope this lasts through the year since this will be very nice for me for Oscar season. Landmark theaters are pretty much the only ones around here that get indies before they go wide.

I would be really surprised if much of the GA realize there will be Wednesday evening and Thursday day showings.

Thanks, that will definitely be our best comp then. That had a 45% Fri increase, 1% Sat, and -37% Sun. Will expect similar holds for RPO then.

That new date reeks of a dump. The tailend of August doesn't exactly have a good track record at the box office. But if it's a dump, why the hell are they waiting so long? Why not just get it over with? From the trailer we got, to these release dates, to greenlighting this concept in the first place - this whole film is just odd all around.

All big budget Spielberg flicks post Minority Report on RT: War of the Worlds: 74% Indy 4: 77% Tintin: 74% The BFG: 75% Gonna take a wild stab in the dark here for some reason and say mid 70% range seems likely.

So basically it's either a Memorial Day weekend thing or an Xmas Day thing. Matrix Reloaded being the oddball since it was a week before MD, which is an even further oddball since it had some Wed showings so not a true Wed or Thu opener.

Has the Thursday release thing ever even been tried with an unestablished franchise? It's mainly been an exclusive thing to the '99-'09 LucasFilm releases or Xmas Day when it falls on Thursday. There's also Matrix Reloaded, Hangover 2, Pirates 3. What else?

We're talking maybe 1% of the gross, and then how many of that 1% would have seen it anyways? It's pretty insignificant in terms of the actual inflation being added by MP. They definitely are nowhere near being able to have bargaining power yet. So we'll see how long they last with this dirt cheap price, because that's clearly what they're hoping their pricing would lead to.

I'd be pretty shocked if it did that much on Thursday. I feel like Thursday is a pretty big wild card and the numbers could be really low even if it does well over the 3 day. It's just such a bizarre release date for something that doesn't have loads of built in hype and awareness. Can imagine plenty of the GA being completely oblivious to it being out on Thursday.

It will gross most of its budget at the DOM box office so that will help it not be too big of a loss for them. Would be much worse if the DOM and OS numbers were switched.

I've heard of the camera adding 10 pounds, but can't say I've heard of it adding 25 years...