MovieMan89
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Everything posted by MovieMan89
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No way Spidey misses 300 imo. Even TASM adjusts to 300. Dunkirk needs to open to 60m+ or otherwise have top tier TDK/Inception Nolan WOM to have a good shot at 200. I am starting to wonder about Apes for 200 since hype and awareness seems really low. I think Dawn may have been the cap for the audience it can reach, though if it can live up to the quality of its predecessors then I think that audience should mostly return and get it just past 200.
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I'd probably stop short of calling it more impressive than TFA's multi, because I mean c'mon...that opened to 250m. Yes I know it was December not summer, and not as frontloaded of a genre as a CBM, but still...250m and a 3.8 multi. I'd easily rank it the second most impressive multi of the decade though.
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I doubt Shrek 2 would've had a 4x multi opening on a Friday since it barely has one with its OW after a Wednesday opening. You could add at least another 5-10m to the OW if it opened on Friday, and then it misses 4x. Not that I even think WW will pull a 4x mind you, it needs 413 for that. I would have to think that 405 or so would be the absolute ceiling, but who the hell knows at this point.
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I still think RT is a good thing. If only 20 people out of 200 like a movie, then the odds are small that the majority's taste would differ so drastically. Movies are a lot more of a luxury with modern pricing than they ever were prior to this decade. People want some kind of indicator to go off of if a movie is worth shelling out for a $50 date night or $100 family movie night, and if you're going opening weekend it can be hard to find friends who have seen it and get their WOM. The critics having pre-determined agendas or being paid off are the only issues, but I don't think it's as prevalent on the whole as some want to make it, especially that latter one.
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SM1/GOTG1 multi might be impossible regardless of the WOM given how stacked with appealing movies July is. Spidey, Apes, and Dunkirk offer a lot of formidable competition to its late legs. WOM or not, I think we all know GOTG1 multi never would have been that if it hadn't had the luxury of zero big competition in its late legs (or its whole run in general). But otherwise I'd be all in on 3.5x+ happening for WW. As it is, I'll guess around 3.35x is where it gets to.