Well we for sure know Tomorrowland isn't making the nom. Doubt Ant Man would either. It could conceivably be any combo of the other 8 though. I'd say:
TFA
Martian
MM
JW
The Walk or The Revenant (should be The Walk, but Revenant's big awards player status could maybe give it an edge)
Don't get the Schumer love at all. I'd take any of them winning over her, even Smith for what is probably a "I just showed up and made a movie" performance.
The category is as stretched thin as possible this year, so that's why he's there. It is blatantly a supporting role though.
I think Gosling's narration may make him seem like a bigger presence, but Carell easily has the most screentime. There's not one character it's really "more" about though. It's like Spotlight, except this time one of them has enough screentime to fly as lead.
When I asked Chasmmi due to confusion on cut short, he said it makes you only lose the question's point value if you're wrong. Opposed to if you get a question wrong normally, you lose the amount of the last question you decided to answer to. So if you answered to 32k and got the 16k question wrong, 32k is normally what you would lose but cut short on the question would only make it 16k.
Sicario is the BIG wildcard. I predict it is either only scoring a cinematography and sound nom, or it will score about 7 noms (including BP, actress, s actor, screenplay, editing). Gonna be really interesting what they do with that movie.
Then again, they seem to have some weird obsession with Hooper that runs in the same vein as their Daldry fixation. Shit, now you guys have me worried.
Of course the chance is always there for a film like MM to get snubbed, no matter how much momentum its built. 3 months ago if you would have told me it would be considered a lock for a BP and BD nom going into the nominations, I would have said you're nuts. It's downright amazing it has even come this close. If it got snubbed for like The Danish Girl though...
Oh god, has Keith Simanton taken over again? That sounds like one of his ridiculous showdowns.
Shutter Island is definitely the obvious comparison. Similar release date and nearly the same OW.
Actually The Artist and Chicago were both pretty clear cut frontrunners from the beginning those years (in fact The Artist went without any opposition whatsoever). The Reader nom of course is shocking, but then again not so given the Academy's propensity for anything Holocaust related. SIL is a bit silly to talk about since we're talking like two decades ago now.
Agreed. Now granted, movies don't play as long anymore as ROTK, but the big ones do tend to get re-expansions (JW's inflated its gross by 10m). As I said, 43 and a -52% hold or so is what I want to see to put some real hope in 1b again.