MovieMan89

For some reason it just hit me that we probably have this odd Fall traffic jam due to TFA. Nothing wants to be near that (or to a lesser extent Spectre and MJ2), so instead we're getting more movies with 100m potential crammed into the Fall season.

Pets could struggle a little OS against IA5 and Dory, but DOM it will clean up. The studio have easily cleared the 200m mark with all 4 releases, and 2 of those you could argue didn't even have very good WOM (Lorax/Minions). Next summer could be the first to have $1b+ DOM in animation grosses. 2010's and 2013's both hit over 900m. My current predicts: Dory: 450 Pets: 320 IA5: 135 Angry Birds: 90 Kubo and the Two Strings: 45

I'm starting to wonder if Pets and Dory will actually end up in a similar race as IO/Minions this summer. Granted I don't expect any way Dory can lose, but I could see Pets coming within like 30m if Dory disappoints a bit and Pets gets great WOM.

Well no we can't. We couldn't actually guarantee AoU as the #1 film of the summer in spite many people "guaranteeing" it as the #1 film of the year before May. But it has a fantastic shot to go over 200m. Illumination will do as much as they can to ensure a big opening like they have with all their films. If they could get Lorax to 70m several years ago, then Inside Out's OW seems like a likely bar to set.

You are barred from predicting Illumination film grosses after you told us about 10 million times that there was zero chance for Minions to go over 250m.

DM1 #'s are absolutely happening, unless Dory becomes the Titanic of animation and just completely dominates the market. Illumination are the marketing kings (they got the horrid Lorax to open huge) and the Pets teaser has gone over with kids in theaters I've seen it in like none I've ever seen for an original animated movie. It got far more and far bigger laughs than the entirety of Minions when I saw that. Furthermore, what kid doesn't love pets?

MJ1 was a very competently made movie that managed to still be engaging despite nary a lick of action. Anyways, I'm bummed at the early reviews. I'm sure I'll like it better than critics cause I thought the first was better than a 64%, but I was hoping this one would be even better.

A very optimistic top 20 projection: 1. Finding Dory - $505m 2. Captain America: Civil War - $420m 3. The Secret Life of Pets - $325m 4. X-men: Apocalypse - $275m 5. Suicide Squad - $275m 6. The Bourne Betrayal - $225m 7. Ghostbusters - $215m 8. ID4 2 - $205m 9. Star Trek Beyond - $200m 10. Alice 2 - $170m 11. TMNT 2 - $160m 12. The BFG - $150m 13. Central Intelligence - $140m 14. Ice Age 5 - $140m 15. Now You See Me 2 - $125m 16. Neighbors 2- $120m 17. Tarzan - $105m 18. Angry Birds - $90m 19. King Arthur - $85m 20. The Conjuring 2 - $85m That would put the top 20 a solid 400m ahead of this year's. Not that I expect the top 20 to actually be that fantastic. Best case scenario.

There are a few more movies with 100m potential than this summer ever had. Around 17 I'd say. Though most of us expected around 15 100m grossers this year and that didn't happen. Way too soon to say how it will compare to this year for sub 100m ones.

I honestly can't see next summer's top 10 out-grossing this year's top 10 doing some optimistic projections. That would basically require Dory to do 500+, Civil War 400+, Pets and/or Suicide Squad 300+, and most everything else in the top ten 200+. So the movies below the top ten are going to really have to pick up the slack or next summer will probably be worse.

So strange to see a summer with 4 mega hits as the 2nd lowest admissions. Talk about top heavy.

I don't know, June is extremely barren except Dory and ID4, which is more July. Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 are far from sure things. Both were the type of movies that felt like they were meant to be stand alone WOM hits. Don't know if anyone was asking for the sequel to either. Warcraft will be disastrous I'm sure and Central Intelligence is a who knows right now. June might really need TMNT2. If anything, something in July needs to move to August. Tarzan and/or King Arthur would be good choices.

Well I guess after Adele's song went over so well with Skyfall it only makes sense they would get Maledele for the sequel.

I still think this looks like a very visually appealing movie if nothing else. How it does will probably mainly depend on whether family audiences really pick this or Goosebumps come October.

A Fall game would actually be very interesting and fun this year.

I'm usually terrible about keeping up with the SOTMs, but after the abundance of points I've gotten off of them this year I will definitely be taking them more serious in years to come.

Well that makes more sense. Geez, I'm all befuddled today.

Bullish about learning the proper way to type, yes. That'll teach me to not double check my answers... Btw, those week 18 scores aren't final right Baumer? Not sure we can answer some questions yet and a few could change. Also on a couple of those bonuses I think you forgot you were asking for the 4 day gross not 3 day.

Damn, I just realized I totally screwed up SOTM 9. I had meant to put 155m for SOC's gross and apparently typed 165m instead without even realizing my mistake until now. Well there went an idiotic on my part loss of a whole bunch of points.

I will agree once the movie starts getting good reception. Until then though, it's Ridley Scott. Approach with the utmost caution in regards to WOM.

Everest continues to be underpredicted. The marketing has been fantastic and having seen it I'm fairly sure the movie will get good WOM from the GA. Can't see it missing 100. I actually like the idea of the MI4 treatment for its release too, since it allows a great chance for WOM to really build like what happened with that.

Lol, I totally blanked on Pan which is pretty sad since I've actually been championing a decent BO run for that.

We should note that no Spielberg film has gone below 45m since Amistad and if we take out Munich then none has gone below 75m since Amistad. So that's about the only reason I'm not totally counting BoS out for a 70-80m run.

That's probably a likely predict for BM. Though I think it has the biggest chance of the 5 to get an Oscar re-release next year if JD is a serious contender like he very well might be and the movie also scores a BP nom.

Goosebumps will be the only other thing after Hotel Transylvania for kids until November, so that could help it. Surprised to hear the early raves about it too.