MovieMan89

Well most movies in 2013 dropped less than 10% and increased for the 4 day that weekend, and it was a lot of low grossers like it will be this year. Last year the drops were steeper, but there were a lot of movies with not so great WOM and Guardians of the Galaxy only dropped 0.7% and increased 33% for the 4 day. They've been having relatively similar weekend holds, so I wouldn't rule out a hold like that which would put it around 11m for the 4 day if it does 8.5m this weekend. I think at least 9m for the 4 day though.

Should be pretty locked now with labor day next weekend. I can't imagine it drops more than 10% for the 4 day, and an increase is very possible. Personally I've got my sights set on GP, hard as it may be. Hope they find a way to push it over if it gets within like 1m.

The premise of Civil War is infinitely more interesting than AoU's ever was. So that could certainly mitigate a significant potential decrease if we're treating it as TA3. If it's really good it could beat it.

Woah, huge 70% Sat bump for MI5! Maybe 8.5m -25% for the weekend if that number sticks.

I mean obviously yes there is still appeal there for Superman. I meant it more in comparison to other CBM's, he has been a weak draw for a character that is universally known. Many CBM's don't have that going for them, and yet still outperform the likes of SR and MoS. I just don't understand this mentality of MoS made 116m OW and TDKR made $160m OW (if that's even relevant), so therefore BvS will break the OW record. Surely the movie is not as hyped as TDKR. So what's nabbing it the extra 50m+ then?

Oh it absolutely is when we're talking about Superman. His movies in the 21st century have been massacred in admissions by a plethora of other CBM's, many of which were lesser known properties. He doesn't appeal to a modern audience, and MoS certainly didn't help judging by the amputee legs. As far as Batman, he already seems like such an after thought in a MoS 2 film. There was no build up to him and the little we've seen of Affleck looks about as exciting as his Daredevil performance. He's made zero impression as the character so far, and this reboot of him is following such a beloved trilogy with high expectations. I don't know, maybe Nolan's trilogy will cause a big draw still for a movie with Batman in it, but I could see the ensuing WOM being even harsher as a result. If people go in excited over Batman and with lingering memories of the TDK movies and then what they get is MoS 2, well...2x may be an optimistic dream.

MAYBE for OW, but still a big maybe given there was zero world building like what we got for the first Avengers. People are forgetting the process of building and hyping that up for the 3 or 4 years prior that took place. That should never be underestimated in its massive success. I'm not going to say a 200m OW is impossible, but it's far more likely to perform like its fellow March OW record holder THG than it is TA/JW. After OW though it absolutely will not be in a league of its own. It will pull a 2-2.3x multi just like Snyder's other CBM's have. We know what we're getting with him. Style over substance, nothing that sticks longer than a flashy OW to match the flashy visuals in his movies. Just watch, BvS finishes sub 400 even if it opens to 200.

I think it could find a spot in the top ten worst saturated openings ever.

Watch out for that Tian Jiang Xiong Shi breakout next weekend. Going to crush the competition with its 2m OW.

Damn, I wonder if WAYF can even crack 2m with those Thursday nights. Even War Room looks to be a non-starter despite its promising MT sales all week. Hopefully SOC, MI5, and Ant Man all have insanely good holds to make up for this otherwise snooze-fest weekend.

I can buy 50m quite honestly. I wonder if Everest will still be able to breakout that weekend though is this does so much? I feel like it's different enough audiences it could. Could have two 45m+ movies on a September weekend.

Question 7 is an either not both question right? So will MI5 make more than either War Room or We Are Your Friends is what it's asking right?

1) Will SOC drop more than 45%? YES 2) Will War Room open to more than 6.3 million? YES 3) Will No Escape open to more than 12 million for the 5 day? NO 4) Will No Escape decrease more than 30% on Thursday? YES 5) Will SOC ever not have a day as the number one movie (Thurs-Sun)? NO 6) Will We Are Your Friends make more than No Escape for the three day? YES 7) Will Mission Impossible make more than any of the two openers? YES if this is asking either/or, NO if it's asking both 8) Will American Ultra fall more than 45%? YES 9) Will Sinister fall less than 55%? NO 10) Will Man from Uncle make more than Hitman? YES 11) Will Fantastic Four fall more than 54%? YES 12) Will any film increase more than 105% on Friday? YES 13) Will any film increase less than 50% on Friday? NO 14) Will any film increase more than 55% on Saturday? YES 12/14 5000 13/14 7000 14/14 10,000 What films finish in spots: 3 MI5 5 No Escape 8 Sinister 2 9 The Gift 2000 each bonus of 5000 if all 4 correct Bonus 1: What does SOC make on Sunday? 4.385 Bonus 2: What does Man From Uncle decrease by? (3% points please) 35.145 Bonus 3: What does the cume for Minions, Ant-Man and The Gift add up to? 9.045

I've remained surprisingly optimistic about this whole project, but I must say that plot synopsis does sound like a bit of a mess. At any rate, I still maintain HBC and Hathaway's queens in the first were intriguing characters in a dull movie, so if they focus on them more that could help this one a lot. If Hatter's going to play a significant part then Depp needs to give us a completely revamped take on it, cause it wasn't working in the first.

Only 100m more than JW? I highly doubt that's the highest it can possibly go. Just the fact that we'll be dealing with a 150m+ opener in December is going to get the thing to crazy high numbers crazy fast barring bad WOM.

Hell, after Skyfall's massive OS haul, AOU could go down to 5th WW for the year.

Warcraft seems like a more surefire flop than AC to me. Of all the video games out there, that probably lends itself as poorly as possible to film. Don't know how they'll ever make that work. On the flip-side, I have a lot of faith in the Uncharted movie to be a hit if done right. It lends itself perfectly to film and could easily shatter any other video game adaptation gross if they do it well.

This is starting to look more like a boring Ridley movie like Exodus rather than an intriguing one like Prometheus. Either way, I still don't expect any kind of WOM for this thing.

Still think Dominion would've been a much cooler title than the generic War, and likely fit the movie.

Really his success this century has been pretty on par with his success in the 90's. Only big difference is he hasn't had a mega-blockbuster since JP in '93.

Yeah, all of his films this millennium have been good for a solid 80m DOM, excluding Munich. And he's still had the blockbuster grosses as you illustrated. So his name certainly still carries some box office heft, and he still makes films that are well received by the majority.

They're very Bond in the sense of not requiring you see any previous installments to follow any particular one.

Guardians and MI5 have been holding similarly so far on the weekends, with MI5 holding a little better overall. If it had the multi from here out Guardians got off its 4th weekend (4.76x) it would gross another 56m and finish around 214m. Just wanted to throw that out there for those still insisting it has no chance at 200. Not only does it have a chance, beating MI2 still isn't even out of the question.

As I suspected, the gap between Minions and IO isn't going to end up very much. Minions pulling similar numbers to IO at the same point and 9m behind. Wouldn't be shocked if Minions finishes less than 10m behind.

That really is the answer as far as I can tell, crazy as that may be. The character just has universal and mass appeal like few other characters in animated feature history. His popularity is more akin to a classic cartoon Looney Tunes or Disney character like Mickey or Bugs. Aside from that, the movies are decent (except the 2nd) and have pretty relatable stories for all cultures.