MovieMan89

Right now my ranges for the 5 adult dramas are: 125-150m: Everest 90-110m: The Martian, The Walk, Black Mass 45-70m: Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs

Some will not reach their full potential for sure. Though I've never banked on The Martian being anything more than a 90-120m grosser despite what everyone here seems to think. Given all the promising adult dramas it's surrounded by I'm even less sure of it having any kind of legs. As if Ridley weren't a bad enough indicator for that alone. I'm also concerned for Bridge of Spies. Should be an easy adult hit with Spielberg/Hanks, but I feel like the marketing has been nearly non-existent. I remember Captain Phillips having a very rabid marketing campaign for example. Could get swallowed by its competitors due to lack of awareness.

Speaking of Everest and wasted opportunities, why wasn't the film released this weekend? It was marketed throughout the whole summer, you'd think it would've been released by now. And the holiday weekend and barren landscape I think could've done wonders for it. Definitely a missed opportunity. Now it's in a much more competitive time frame of release.

Lol, is it really? I had no clue about that. I guess that makes a little more sense though, I kinda wondered why we had such a stacked weekend in September. So it's getting an MI4 rollout then?

Yeah, it's a much better gross than it had any right to be honestly. Though one has to wonder how much of that is the lack of decent new releases for the better part of a month.

My optimistic hopes for 9/18 weekend: Scorch Trials: 52m Everest: 48m Black Mass: 24m

If The Visit bombs it will hold it for 5.

Yeah sorry I got what you meant right after I posted.

nvm

Yeah, this really looks like the most surefire record breaking Fall season ever. Usually we're lucky if we have two movies with true hit potential in the September/October period. We have literally about 10 this year. None until 9/18 weekend, but then it's all green light from there (Scorch Trials, Everest, Black Mass, The Walk, Steve Jobs, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Hotel Transylvania, Pan, Witch Hunter). Not that that necessarily means they all will be hits, but worst case scenario I'd say at least half will be 100m-ers. Hell even stuff like Goosebumps and Paranormal Activity have mild hit potential.

How do you figure? Using the numbers Picores projected it would only need a 1.8x multi off of the 4 day (9.4 x 1.8 = 17).

It's following Guardians of the Galaxy's labor day pattern already as I suspected it would. That had a 145% Friday jump, MI5 a 155% one. If its holds are the same as GOTG it will do aorund 7.8m for the 3 day and 10.5m for the 4 day. But maybe even higher than that since its Friday increase was already a little better than GOTG's. At any rate, 200 is completely locked now. GP is the goal.

There is no reason TL should be a bigger loser than F4. Just another example of Disney going overboard with budgets.

You know it's bad when that that actually seems like a good number for Transporter to me. Was expecting more like 4-5m for the weekend.

I wonder if someone at Disney noticed the gap between IO and Minions through the same point was getting a little too close for comfort again and freaked out with that TC expansion. How else to explain that? Not that IO wasn't still going to win either way of course, but Minions was closing the gap through the same point by 10m this past weekend.

LMFAO at Transporter being a super saturated release now. I guess they're really going for a record breaking weekend (in which I'm referring to the all time worst super saturated opening record of course). Look out Hoot, your days may be very numbered!

Thanks Baumer, was patiently awaiting these! 1) Will No Escape have a Friday increase of more than 110%? YES 2) Will Sinister 2 drop on Sunday? YES 3) Will MI5 increase on Thursday? YES 4) Will Transporter do more than 750K for previews? NO 5) Will The Gift make more than Ant Man? NO 6) Will Transporter be number one on Monday? NO 7) Will Gopher and Tele still strongly dislike Jurassic World? UNLESS THIS EXPANSION IS ACTUALLY AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT MOVIE, DUH! 8) Will Compton drop less than 0% on Sunday? YES 7/8 2000 8/8 4000 What finishes in spots 3 A Walk in the Woods 7 UNCLE 9 Inside Out 11 Minions 1000 each 2000 bonus for all 4 spots right And one final bonus worth 5000 points: What will be the best percentage increase on Sunday? I don't want the film, just the number....to three decimal points. 16.775

Wow jajang, thanks for all the scoring!

1) Will Compton win the 4 day? YES 2) Will Transporter win the three day? NO 3) Will A Walk in the Woods make at least 5 million for the three day weekend? YES 4) Will any film drop less than 13% on Monday? YES 5) Will more than 7 films increase on Sunday? YES 6) Will any film increase more than 165% on Friday? YES 7) Will We are your Friends drop more than 40%? YES 8) Will Jurassic World drop less than 15%? YES 9) Will any film drop less than 10%? YES 10) Will Rogue Nation make more than War Room? NO 11) Will Minions drop less than Ant-Man? NO 12) Will any film drop more than 27% on Thursday? NO 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots: 1 Straight Outta Compton 2 War Room 5 Transporter 6 No Escape 10 Ant Man 2000 each spot right 4000 bonus if all 5 right Bonus 1: What will Jurassic World be at WW according to Rentrak, by the time Sunday numbers are released? 10,000 Bonus 2: What will The Gift make for the 4 day? 3.425 Bonus 3: What will the combined weekend 4 day gross be of Hitman, Compton and Uncle? 22.295

Yeah, this is exactly what I expect to happen as well if TGD lives up to the classic Pixar standard. Moreover, if TGD is great it's also very possible one of the two could be snubbed for a nom in the animated category.

Dammit, MI5 keeps taking hits in weekend actuals. Still a great number of course.

Labor Day was creepy and schmaltzy simultaneously. I did not enjoy.

Not only that, but the multi will end up around a phenomenal 3.2x. In the elite league of the likes of Spidey 1, TDK, IM1, and GotG among CBM multis.

Efron is waaaaay too prettyboy to pull off anything masculine all that well. He makes young Brad Pitt look like the most masculine guy ever. I don't even think Efron pulls off acting in general well because of it. The guy belongs in a modeling agency, not Hollywood. And lol at Cavill or Momoa being prettyboys. That's like saying Gerard Butler and The Rock are also.

Ant Man will for sure be taking down Captain America. Thor looks possible now too.