MovieMan89

Well it's not like they can leave it at 100m even like the estimates. How much more obvious could they make it then?

I'll laugh so hard if we see a 7 figure Monday number.

Hollywood fudge is actually the collected fecal matter of lots of studio big wigs. It will most definitely make you sick.

Swing dem numbers round and round, but end of the night Bay's goin down.

Let them have their fudged OW. 55-60% drop for Monday.

Any Sunday stuff from RTH? No chance I believe TF4 only had an 18% drop today.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised with a gross closer to DM1 than DM2 for Minions. DM2 was definitely the peak I think. I still think Jurassic World has huge potential at least as far as OW goes if marketed right.

Agreed. Honestly it almost looks worse than this year if you take AoU out, and that's saying something as this summer sucks. Jurassic World, Minions, and Ted 2 are going to need to live up to franchise expectations or else we're gonna need a lot of surprise breakouts.

As much as I'm arguing that TF4 won't go much above 220m DOM, I'd still be more confident in it somehow hitting 300 than I am Apes. That would be beyond shocking given this summer and the fact that's not a mega franchise.

Yeah my bad, mixed that up meant delfated Fri

Exactly. A sub 60% drop next weekend might happen just because the 4th falls on Friday, but I still won't bet on it. Friday will be inflated, but Saturday will be deflated so it kind of balances out. It's competing with three movies that take away important demos (Tammy for females, DUFE for teens, and Echo for kids). Even if none of those do great, all three combined are bound to eat at its audience. And then it will have a harsh drop when Apes hits the next weekend. So I don't see why there's opportunity for great legs. Unless it does have amazing week days.

I think at this point it's profitable even if they don't have huge stake in it. It's like how Bill Gates kids will only get a miniscule percentage of his fortune, but that's still a ridiculous amount of money. The China market is so hot right now I'm sure Hollywood studios want any chunk of it they can get.

I'm suggesting TF2 wouldn't have had a multi of much more than 2.4x either if it had opened on a Friday. And the last 5 years have not been kind to summer multis. They've gotten much worse on average since even then.

How on earth is that a good comparison given TF2 had already burned off 3 full days of demand by its first saturday? TF2 would have had a 160m+ OW easily if it had opened on Friday given what its massive total through its first weekend was.

Wouldn't be surprised if the studio puts out a 100m estimate just to grab the headlines. Also wouldn't be surprised if estimates are as much as 4-5m too high for it. After all 22JS was just recently over-predicted by like 3m in the estimates.

O RLY? I remember when you were so vehemently telling me most people were loving Godzilla and legs would be just fine.

Have you guys been totally tuning this summer out at the box office? I mean it's easy to do this year I know, but 2.2-2.3x multis are the new range for the big openers. TASM2 and Godzilla will both be in that range, and Godzilla even had a Holiday 2nd weekend to help it out like TF4. And DOFP probably would have landed in that multi range too if great WOM hadn't kicked in. So unless you guys are expecting great WOM to kick in for TF4, I say again no reason to expect anything over a 2.4x multi.

Well it will only make 100m if it has a sub 20% Sunday drop, which would be extremely good for a non-holiday weekend. So I really don't see that happening.

There's nothing to underestimate. As a summer movie part of a historically frontloaded franchise it's chance of more than a 2.4x multi are basically non existent. Movies like this have a definite ceiling when it comes to legs, even if people love them. Look no further than DOFP, which is an incredible movie that is still only limping past a 2.4x multi probably only because WOM is so good.

Movies shouldn't fall at all on Saturday with the late nights subtracted, unless they're very frontloaded/had obscenely huge late night numbers. All of our other big openers this year increased on Sat a healthy amount minus late shows. TF4 is acting significantly more frontloaded than TASM2 or Godzilla already. The 4th may help a little, but I doubt much since the TF sequels have always burned off nearly all their demand by the end of their first week. This is absolutely not a franchise that is gonna be helped by WOM, even it it were great.

What's so funny? TF4 is already falling big time from its OD. 100m OW ain't happening with that Sat, that's for sure. If it's already holding worse than the likes of Godzilla and TASM2, why would it have a way better multi than them? 2.4x multi should be the absolute best case scenario for it.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Maleficent beats TF4 DOM now (and probably every summer movie besides DOFP). 95m-ish OW for TF4 and a 2.25x multi sound about right. So that's around 213m. Maleficent will do at least 215m. Crap beats crap and we all lose so who cares? I'm going to sit back and enjoy the shitstorm.

That's only 2 weeks away. And don't underestimate the potential appeal of a Melissa McCarthy comedy combined with a good summer horror flick next week. Tammy+ Deliver Us From Evil could provide plenty of appeal outside TF4 next week.

I'd love that so much. And a $199m DOM total would really top that off beautifully.

The TF sequels have both pretty much made it on their opening weeks. TF3 grossed nearly half of its total through its first Sunday, TF2 more than half. It's definitely one of the more frontloaded franchises. Not sure why this would be the exception, especially this awful summer.