Ugh. Lets not. If all these shitty movies start breaking out now I'm gonna be really pissed since there were plenty of awesome movies that should have had that breakout success instead (Edge of Tomorrow, DOFP, Dragon, Apes, etc).
Pokemon already had 2 movies that got released in theaters in the US in 99 and 2000. The first was actually kind of massive, grossing around 200m DOM adjusted.
It looked absolutely horrid, had no big stars, looked like it was too mature for kids and too juvenile for adults. Plus I didn't even know the franchise had much of any popularity these days. But apparently that all adds up to one of the biggest August openings.
1) Will both TMNT and GOTG finish with more than 40 mill? NO
2) What film places first? GOTG
3) Will TMNT make more than 16.311 mill on Friday? NO
4) Will Into the Storm open to more than 13.45 mill? NO
5) Will GOTG increase more than 40% on Saturday? YES
6) Will The Hundred Foot Journey make more than 8.5 million? NO
7) Will Transformers increase more than 43.5% on Saturday? YES
8) Will Step Up All In make more than 11.7 million? NO
9) Will Hercules make more than Apes? YES
10) Will The Purge fall more than 50%? YES
11) Will Lucy fall less than 45%? NO
12) Will Get on Up drop more than 8% on Thursday? NO
10/12 3000
11/12 5000
12/12 7000
What finishes in spots:
1 GUARDIANS
2 TMNT
3 Get On Up
4 Lucy
5 100ft Journey
8 Into the Storm
2000 each/10,000 bonus if all 8 correct....I think the level of difficulty this week is higher than others, hence the larger bonus.
Bonus 1: What is GOTG % drop? 5000 51.050
Bonus 2: What will TMNT make on OD? 5000 7.055
Bonus 3: What will GOTGs WW gross (the total it has made thus far)? 5000 340.005
Well all I'm saying is Interstellar better hit at least 70m OW to hope at all for 300 in today's multi climate. Legs for wide releases this year have been awful in general. The only way wide releases have gotten anywhere near 4x multis this year is with small sub 30 OWs. And before Gravity gets brought up keep in mind it had literally an entire month to itself. That's a massive difference from opening during the Holidays.
I said some of the most attention grabbing. Inception's marketing was flawless. It was a completely original film with a plot too complicated to be explained well in marketing no matter how hard they would have tried, and it STILL managed to look super appealing despite that. If the marketing hadn't been so phenomenal it may have opened to half of what it did. Take away Nolan and Leo draw power on top of that and it would have been a massive bomb on OW.
Anyways I'm saying the marketing for IS hasn't been all that grabbing so far. The newest trailer is much better with that, but before that all audiences have seen are a whole lot of character driven farm life stuff. McConaughey just won an Oscar but he's certainly not the box office draw Leo has been since Titanic. And I don't think Nolan's draw power is anywhere near the height it was coming off of TDK right now. I mean he's coming off a movie that still has a stigma attached to it.
Why would Interstellar open better than Inception though? That movie had some of the most attention grabbing marketing in modern film history, a big box office star, and Nolan riding TDK's wave. Also multis were much better then than now and Inception still missed 300 with its fantastic WOM. 300 is definitely a long shot for Interstellar, I see no way it isn't.
Anyways GOTG is clearly having the family pull with that Sat and possible early WOM already kicking in. Would be awesome to get an IM1 multi so something could pull 300 this summer. Not that I'm holding my breath for that. 2.5x in this summer seems to be good.
Interstellar, Hobbit, BH6, and MJ1 are not all gonna be 300m+ grossers and people really need to lower their Holiday expectations if they think that. Odds are MJ1 is the only of the 4 to hit the mark.
It is at least a little different/daring in terms of what audiences tend to go for. Hence why many of us laughed at first that Disney was attempting a lesser known comic movie with a talking tree and raccoon, pro wrestler, and that guy from Parks and Rec...
Also the marketing with all our "heroes" in the lineup looking bored or just overall odd and lines of dialouge like "this might not be a good idea" basically coming off as quirky confessions from Disney that it could bomb was a unique approach.