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This was my first thought. Not a smart decision by Peter Jackson. Also Matrix Reloaded ending was so abrupt and unsatisfying.

7.1M is solid, but unsurprising. Kind of expected drop (-36%), slightly better than Guardians 2 (37.8%). Possible scenarios: If Thursday drops 10% (same as MOM) - 6.4M If Thursday drops 5% (same as GotG2) - 6.75M Friday increase should be between 110-130%. So 13.5M - 15.5M range. Saturday increase should be between 55-70%. So 21M - 26.3M range. Sunday drop should be between 25-35%. So 13.7M - 19.7M range. Minimum. 48M Maximum. 61.5M Middle ground. 55M

Nice!! Around 24.5% increase from Monday

You made a great point. Anyways, as you said, the presales werent like other MCU titles. This points to a different audience bahavior. For whatever reason, there were a lesser rush factor. And that, with the addition of strong WOM, opens the possibility of better than expected legs. Of course, I know there is a strong possibility that Guardians 3 finally behaves like a standard MCU sequel. But, there is also a real chance it doesnt follow the usual MCU frontloaded pattern. We will soon have a better idea, once Wednesday numbers arrive.

This will be a surprising hit, just like the first was. A guilty pleasure to close the Summer in fun mood.

11M would be just 1.6M behind of MoM first Tuesday. It's a 22% increase, pretty much the same as Guardians2, which grossed 12.1M Guardians2 second weekend was 65M MoM second weekend was 61M Looking at Wednesday: 30% drop would mean 7.7M 35% drop would mean 7.15M 38% drop, 6.82M MOM had a 28% drop, Guardians2 had a 38% drop

LOL I thought there would be a bigger difference! Wouldnt it be crazy if Guardians 3 has the best drop of the entire MCU?

Other possible clubs (last really bold) Guardians 3 10 day gross over AMQ total (213M) Guardians 3 2nd weekend over Guardians 2 2nd weekend (65.2M) Guardians 3 2nd weekend best hold for any MCU (Black Panther's 44.7%)

320M+ WW after 4 days. Nice! Easily 500M+ WW after 2nd weekend. Possibly 900M WW final and over Guardians vol.2

Great Monday! Key number is Wednesday. If it stays over 7.5M, we are in for a very strong second weekend.

Another SH film with great Sunday was Wonder Woman. 15.6% drop. I know it was in early June, but still. It was an obvious signs of legs. In the end, WW grossed 4x its OW.

119M M-Th 35M F-S 55M 10day gross: around 210M There is a chance Guardians outgrosses Quantumania DOM in just 10 days after an opening just 10M higher.

The outlier is AM3, first MCU movie in a while to really have a bad result.

A few days ago I calculated the average DOM gross of each MCU phase. Phase 1: 291M average IM 318 TIH 135 IM2 312 T 177 CA 181 TA 623 Phase 2: 307M average IM3 409 T2 203 GOTG 333 CA2 260 AOU 459 AM 180 Phase 3: 449M average CW 408 DS 230 GOTG2 390 SMH 334 TR 311 BP 700 AIW 679 AMW 216 CM 427 AEG 858 FFH 390 Phase 4: 369M average BW 183 (*Covid) SC 225 (*Covid) Et 165 (*Covid) NWH 805 DS2 411 L&T 343 BPWF 454 So DOM Phase 4 was under Phase 3, but still over phase 1&2 despite Covid. I would say that a 369M average gross with 7 films is more than great.

What an incredibly satisfying experiencie! Second weekend should be really solid, over 50M for sure. Wouldn't it be great if it can have a better 2nd weekend than DSMoM 61M?

Nope, but do we need 300 minutes to tell these stories? Wasn't it possible to reduce Hawkeye's plot to just 2 hours? It would feel more focused and eventful. Same with Falcon, Moonknight and Miss Marvel. All this long filler didn't help the brand to get focus or to keep the idea that every MCU opening=event. And I say that as an MCU fan that has seen everything

The huge amount of MCU series damaged the brand much more than the quality of Quantumania, IMHO. For two main reasons: First, GA has begun to think that MCU can be enjoyed on streaming. In last 2 years, many of the new steps in this universe were not perceived as eventful because of that TV format. Second, the series barely had a real reason to exist. Only Loki and Wandavision are important to the main story. Moon Knight and Ms Marvel would've worked much better as movies, but as a series both feel unfocused projects to meet minor unknown characters. Hawkeye only reason to exist was to present Kate Bishop and Echo. Not enough. All these series add more than 2,400 minutes of MCU content, which is more than the runtimes of Phase 2&3 combined!!!!

18M / 32M / 40M / 30M 120M OW

Joker will have 2024 most disappointing BO run. Under 200M DOM

Are you expecting 17.5M as AMQ?

The WGA strike can change dramatically this schedule. Avatar 3 should easily win the year, unless something explodes like crazy. I can see surprises from Twisters (possible return of catastrophe genre?) and If (Krasinski with stellar cast).

Final push in line with Thor4 is quite good. I am expecting good walkups, so put me in for 19M previews

I had the curiosity to see the average DOM gross of each MCU phase. Phase 1: 291M average IM 318 TIH 135 IM2 312 T 177 CA 181 TA 623 Phase 2: 307M average IM3 409 T2 203 GOTG 333 CA2 260 AOU 459 AM 180 Phase 3: 449M average CW 408 DS 230 GOTG2 390 SMH 334 TR 311 BP 700 AIW 679 AMW 216 CM 427 AEG 858 FFH 390 Phase 4: 369M average BW 183 (*Covid) SC 225 (*Covid) Et 165 (*Covid) NWH 805 DS2 411 L&T 343 BPWF 454 While there is a drop between phase 3 and 4, we need to take into account pandemic effect and streaming. IMHO, these numbers reflect the strength of the brand, despite irregular quality and content saturation due to Disney+ series.

If previews to OW ratio is the same as AMQ (x6) 18M - 108M OW 19M - 114M OW 20M - 120M OW If previews to OW ratio is the same as BPWF (x6.5) 18M - 117M OW 19M - 123M OW 20M - 130M OW If previews to OW ratio is x7 (the ceiling) 18M - 126M OW 19M - 133M OW 20M - 140M OW

88.2M after 4.2M... If it survives Guardians and grosses something around 3M next weekend, 100M could be again in conversation.