stripe

For sure! The genre was dead and if it's succesful is just because of JLaw.

Could we see Indy over Transformers OW after all?

More than Tuesday lone number, I am looking at week to week drop, under 20% for Elemental. Also, proximity to ID4 could boost grosses for family films. These two things give me hope for strong holds

With that Tuesday number, could we see a 15M weekend gross for both Elemental and SM?

A 60%+ drop would be atrocious, but probable. PLF gone + direct competion + not so great WOM = steep 3rd weekend drop AM3 almost hit 60% drop with same formula

June's recap and July's forecast This month began nicely, but last half greatly disappointed. Spiderverse (+30M), Mermaid (+15M) and Transformers (+50M) overperformed my predictions, but then The Flash (-90M), Elemental (-10M) and NHF (-10M) went under. The rest I was quite spot on, waiting for Indiana Jones OD. In the end, the gross should be very close to that 1,030M I guessed. July's predictions: Openers (675M) Insidious: 40M Joy Ride: 30M Mission Impossible 7: 200M Barbie: 220M Oppenheimer: 140M Talk to Me: 5M Haunted Mansion: 30M Rest: 10M Holdovers (430M) Indiana Jones: 200M NHF: 30M Ruby Gillman: 15M Elemental: 50M Flash: 15M Transformers: 15M Spiderverse: 45M Asteroid City: 20M Rest: 40M Cumulative gross: 1,100M. Almost on par with last year's july (1,133M)

I still have faith June will cross 1b. Right now we are at 900M. Monday-Thursday we could see a cumulative gross of 60M+. Then, Indy opening should easily boost Friday to 40M+. Anyways, Flash killed a potential 1.1b June.

Previews wont be that important, IMHO. Business for this will spread through 5day opening (until 4th July), with slightly better numbers than DM3. 9M previews 30M OD 25M Saturday 22M Sunday (77M OW) 16M Monday 14M Tuesday 107M 5day opening

Tracking thread puts this movie with an opening around 15-19M. That's solid for the genre. Possibly better than Ticket to Paradise opening, best postpandemic comedy run until now. And this opening is just possible thanks to JLaw stardom. How many actresses can succesfully headline a raunchy comedy in these times?

Elemental 20.5M (great legs incoming) Spider-Verse $20M (huge hold due to WOM, proximity to 4th July and premium recovery) No Hard Feelings $17.5M (solid enough to have faith in comedy genre return) The Flash $15.5M (avoiding record drop thanks to no new direct competition) Transformers $11.5M (still on track to 150M DOM) Asteroid City $10M (healthy expansion)

If Flash and Elemental underperform this could be the last weekend with 30M+ grosser since mid February. With this weekend, we will have 18 consecutive weekends with a 30M+ grosser. A tie with the longest streak until now, that happened in 2016. If next weekend either The Flash, Elemental or No Hard Feelings gross more than 30M, we will have a record!

So tracking thread was correct with both previews. Crossing fingers Elemental can recover and gain some muscle through the weekend.

PICTURE: Parasite (2019) A 12 Years a Slave (2013) A Nomadland (2020) A- Spotlight (2015) A- Green Book (2018) B Everything Everywhere (2022) B Birdman (2014) B Moonlight (2016) B CODA (2021) B- The Shape of Water (2017) C Not a good decade, IMHO. How many of these winners will pass the test of time?

That's what I thought, but the director is already working on Kang Dinasty. That makes me think that Kang Dinasty will work as a sort of SC sequel but with more characters. It could be SM or a movie Marvel is working but doesn't want to spoil yet (a bridge to mutants?) Lets see

So MCU release schedule order changes after The Marvels. 2024 Deadpool 3 CA:BNW Thunderbolts 2025 Blade FF I think it's a smart decision to avoid 4 movies in 2024 and put Deadpool first. It's their safest bet and it will help the rest of the films. Before Kang Dinasty it looks like there's room for another film in November. Which one?

Good 61% drop for Spider-man. In line with TGM 62.2% drop. Meh 68% drop for Transformers. In line with JWD first Monday last year (67.1% drop).

76,543,210 Countdown to victory

I am also really surprised with overseas weakness, especially China. Another 700M candidate that falls short

Yes, but that situation was a result of WB weird postCovid strategy. In normal situation it would have grossed more than it finally did.

After Transformers and SV overperformance, I am very confident June 2023 will hit around 1.1b. It could challenge April 2023 for best month of the recovery. Let's see if Flash, Elemental and No Hard Feelings can deliver. I am very worried about the former.

"break even", the new popular argument to dismiss a BO run. As Gopher posted yesterday, no matter if we don't know about budget, returns, marketing, VOD, etc. In my radar, a remake movie that opens above 100M in MD (5th biggest MD) and finishes around 300M DOM is a success story. It could have grossed zero dollars OS and it would still be a success story.

Average score is 6.5. IMHO, that's too low to expect a 90% fresh score. I would say the goal is 85%

That's my only concerning regarding BO, the lack of middle ground hits. Air and A Man Called Otto at least did fine. But what happened to praised and loved films such as Are you there God or The Covenant? Both would have done more than double their gross in normal times. Even Book Club 2, Plane, Renfield, About My Father, Sisu, Magic Mike would have had decent runs.

It could very well have a 40M+ OW. There are many signs to have hope: Presales arent huge (why should they?), but they arent weak either. Original animated films behave different with presales. Pixar brand is still strong with families. Animation is recovering. Flash doesnt look to suck all the air that weekend. Father's Day boost. June's strength. Three consecutive weekends with more than solid openings. Reviews score is recovering after Cannes. Right now, 76% on RT with 34 reviews.