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I didn't expect Flowers to begin the race with such a bang! Also, May December could be a stronger contender than expected. More than Maestro snub, I am surprised with Poor Things lack of wins.

It's always interesting to take a look at TFE. Nathaniel Rogers recently updated his predictions and I usually find them useful and interesting. http://thefilmexperience.net/best-picture/ His top 10 (in this order) Oppenheimer American Fiction The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Barbie Maestro Poor Things Past Lives The Color Purple Anatomy of a Fall Maybe Poor things is too low on this list. Besides that, I agree with these predictions.

It's not true GA has lost faith/interest in Disney. Of course, Disney has had a lot of highs and downs through its 100 years of history. After 80's huge crisis arrived "Renaissance era", then in 2000's there were a lot of huge misteps (Treasure Island, Atlantis, Home on the Range, The Wild) mixed with great entries (Lilo&Stitch, Enchanted)... And we returned to strong succesful entries during 2010 decade. So what we are witnessing now is nothing uncommon or unseen. Now quality fluctuates but there are still some good/great animated films, like Encanto and Raya, both original entries with damaged BO results due to Covid.

Napoleon and Wish both look like they should finish over THG this Thanksgiving. What's your prediction for THG?

Poor things is already a major threat to Oppenheimer. In a couple of weeks we should see a lot of precursors going crazy for it.

Iron Man obviously was one of the main reasons of MCU's success for phase 1-3. Quality of the first IM helped to build that universe. However, let's not pretend it was the only major hook. Captain America was also a lead in 7 movies. Same with Thor: leading 7 movies. Also, Infinity Stones huge part of the plot in 8 movies!

MCU was the story about Infinity Stones with Iron Man AND Captain America AND Thor. Once this story ended, GA was still waiting for "what's next" but lack of definite direction plotwise plus lack of leading characters plus lack of wow setpieces/movies plus series with zero relevance or meh quality have killed momentum. Anyways, MCU has had some solid/incredible runs in phase 4&5 (NWH, Guardians3, SC, WF). Even MOM did quite solid. GA isn't completely rejecting the saga! Yet.

5day gross: 51.7M Around 70-71M after 10 days. Hard to see it missing 100M DOM. Still... AWFUL!

This is painful... Marvel would love to time travel, get the Infinity Stones, snap its fingers and erase the events after Endgame

Doom & gloom weekend ahead? See you then in a couple of days

We are a almost a month away for the beginning of Awards season. I'm very curious to see what will be the surprising addition to the run and what will suffer the egregious lack of love with precursors. Right now, thinking precursors will establish Poor Things as the frontrunner... And will show weakness for Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer has still a long road ahead to claim victory. It's a July movie. It will have to fight momentum and freshness of newer tentpoles. While it's a respected tentpole/hit, AMPAS now prefer to award minor films. Remember Moonlight over La La Land, or 12 years a slave over Gravity? It's fighting for the same attention as Killers of the Flower Moon: prestige auteur+historical pic+high value production. And... Can the Palestine conflict affect the way some AMPAS members see Oppenheimer's biopic?

I am quite sure that an Avengers movie with just Thor, Strange, CM, Shang Chi, Black Panther, Deadpool, Ant Man & co can still gross north of 1b. Just the "Avengers" title is enough to convince many that this is an event movie that should be seen theatrically. MCU is not as fresh as it was a couple years ago, but still has a healthy GA recognition.

No one would have believed two months ago that a concert movie would open over 90M in October. It's an awesome wonderful feat! Even more if we think about the lack of strong marketing push.

I still can see Air scoring a BP nom at the Oscars. It's a crowdpleaser and it's going to be campaigned. Very possible SAG Ensemble nom, PGA and Golden Globe Comedy nom will help to be in conversation later in the year.

Agree. 9 billion+ was the high end of my expectations for 2023, and the year could finish confortably over that mark. We are at 7.1 billion October might gross 650-700M and November should add another 700M+. December is very hard to predict, but Renaissence+Wonka+Aquaman+Migration+Color Purple should help to bring the month over 800M.

Beau is afraid 8M Asteroid Ciry 28M Past Lives 11M Joy ride 13M Margaret 20M Dumb Money 7.5M and counting... This year we have already seen indie films doing a tad better than they would have done last two years. Market is slowly recovering. Of course, there's still a long road ahead for the market to completely recover prepandemic grosses for this kind of movies. IMHO, The Holdovers has a prestige director and it's an easy relatable dramedy. American Fiction win at Toronto points it's a crowdpleaser. It has already a wide release during Holidays and legs should be solid. Poor Things could be weird, but in a distinctive way. It has a director with many fans, and an very popular actress in one of her finest works.

Poor Things, Holdovers, Ferrari and American Fiction will also be over 10M before Oscar nomination day. Question is, how much over?

Turning red song wasnt even in the shortlist elegible finalists... That was one of the most surprising snubs last year. It still hurts me all the praise behind EEAAO overrated score. Last year it should have been replaced by Nope. Anyways, Hisaishi is a legend and the piano track I have listened for The Boy and the Heron is soo beautiful. In a year without strong/memorable scores, I can easily see it nommed. And watch out if it finally gets in. Oppenheimer has a distinctive score, but nothing truly amazing. I miss the times when a score not only enhanced a movie but also could be enjoyed as a whole.

Paw Patrol and Saw X are already success stories. And in the following weeks we will also see: - Exorcist doing okish numbers. - Eras Tour becoming the biggest concert event ever and scoring also biggest October opening. - Killers of the Flower Moon (a R-rated 3hour+ period crime drama) opening really strong. - Five Night at Freddy's overperforming with a strong chance to 100M DOM territory. Add in very possible successful limited runs for Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers and The Killer. Not that bad for an October (3th weakest month historically) dealing with only 4 strong openings, streaming competition and a SAG strike. In fact, 700M+ for the month is in play, which would mean 5th highest cumulative gross in this period. Anyways, doom and gloom will continue. I suppose in these days it's cool to be on the pessimistic side of everything

Yeah, poor Hollywood... Oh, wait, we just had a Summer almost in line with prepandemic levels with half the movies in theaters. Problem with September/October is a weaker schedule than expected due to a strike that also limits campaigns. Still, Expend4bles can very well open north of 10M and last weekend of September has a potential breakout (The Creator) and another two 10M+ openers. September agreggated gross will be around 475M, that's 150M over September 2022. Apocalypse aborted

What are you expecting for Expend4bles? It would need to open below 9M to give a chance for A Haunting in Venice. Very unprobable. Let's say: Expend4bles 12M A Haunting in Venice 9M Nun2 8.5M Barbie 6M Equaliz3r 5M It Lives Inside 4M

Another score to be considered: Giacchino's Society of the Snow. They have just released a track and it's so beautiful. Also made me remember how great was James Newton Howard's score for Alive.

Biggest dissapointment: Joker 2 (under 200M) Biggest surprise: Twisters (+300M) Biggest DOM: Deadpool 3 (475M) Biggest WW: Mufasa (1.3b)

Crossing fingers Haunting in Venice manages to open over 20M