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It has a legitimate shot but it's still too early. Poor things has the momentum right now, but it will be hard to stay in conversation until February. Last year Fabelmans peaked early and it looked like a very strong frontrunner...

Why the concerns regarding Maestro? Critics already like it and it's the kind of movie that ends more loved by AMPAS than by critics. Hollywood themed, actor turned director, biopic, strong cast, showy production... I am quite confident that these 7 films will finally make the cut. Oppenheimer Killers of the flower moon Poor things Barbie Maestro Holdovers Anatomy of a fall Then there's still a wide range of films that could get traction. I would bet the other three will be a mainstream (Air), an auteur (May December) and an unseen (The Color Purple). Foreign films: Zone of Interest Past Lives The Boy and the Heron Auteur films: All of us strangers Hit man Saltburn Priscilla May December Popular/mainstream films: Air Ferrari (if succesful) Across the Spiderverse The Killer (if succesful) Still unseen (possible gamechangers) Napoleon The Color Purple Wonka (if it surprises as Barbie did)

Right now, not a strong year for Score, IMHO. From already heard scores, the most probable nominee is Goransson's Oppenheimer. In contention also Pemberton's Spiderverse, but he also has Ferrari in the year. Which one will prevail? Anyways, I don't find Spiderverse to be that good. Elemental delivers with Thomas Newman original touch, with nice exotic flair. However, it lacks a strong theme. Past Lives score is soft and appropiate, but it doesn't resonate. Asteroid City has Desplat, but it's a minor work. Maybe he will make it later with Nyad? Williams' score for Indiana Jose has a beautiful theme for Helena, but as a whole the score is below Cristal Skull. And Guardians 3 has a strong/moving theme (Mo Ergaste Forn/Into the light). I have faith in The Creator by Hans Zimmer, Hunger Games by James Newton Howard, Next Goal Wins by Michael Giacchino & Desplat's Nyad. Curious about Wonka, Ferrari, Wish, Color Purple and Napoleon.

No way. With the huge amount of praised AMPAS-friendly movies this year, it's impossible. Also, Spiderverse noise already gone, buried by Barbenheimer's thunder. If there's a surprise nominee from a success from first part of the year, it will be Air.

Let`s say 1.8M Thursday for E3. Friday: 4.5M Saturday: 7M Sunday: 4M 15.5M 2nd weekend

Wow, didnt know that! Thanks. Today I have heard about another early praised film, Hit Man, directed by Richard Linklater.

Many possible contenders already seen. My current predictions: Feel secured 1. Oppenheimer (huge hit, raves, biopic, prestige auteur) 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (raves, legend directing, huge cast, relevant theme) Solid candidates 3. The Holdovers (beloved auteur + great early reviews) 4. Maestro (biopic + early raves + cast) 5. Barbie (cultural phenomenon + theme... but a silly comedy? Not an Oscar friendly genre) Clearly in the run 6. Poor Things (raves + auteur + theme... but too weird/extreme?) 7. Past Lives (raves + strongest international contender) 8. Anatomy of a Fall (Cannes winner + raves + international prestige contender) 9. Zone of Interest (raves + Cannes strong candidate, but enough accesible for AMPAS?) Possible already seen candidates Priscilla (early strong reactions + Coppola) Ferrari (not so strong reactions but watch out) Air (strong and succesful, but too early release?) All of Us Strangers (early strong reviews) Saltburn (polarizing early reviews, but some praising it) Unseen but possible game changers The killer The Color Purple Napoleon May December

Not great, but could rebound IMHO. It screened in Venice, where critics often are more snobbish.

Possible new October OW record? What a surprise!

LOL Some of these are not even bombs, just underperformers against expectations. I wouldnt call 2023 a bombastic year when we have seen incredible runs for SMB, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Across the Spiderverse, Sound of Freedom... There have been biggest grossers for Scream, John Wick, Rocky and Insidious sagas. Also, we have seen partial recovery for adult dramas/comedies (Man Called Otto, Air, Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings...).

95-105M is where it could land, IMHO Friday: 29-32M Saturday: 36-39M Sunday: 30-34M

What an incredible end of July! Already at 982.5M after Monday. Add for the rest of the week: 45+35+30=110M Next weekend it will be interesting to see what happens. IMO, we can expect something like this: Barbie 85M Oppenheimer 45M Haunted Mansion 30M SoF 15M MI7 12M Rest 15-20M So 205M For sure over 1.3b

What about Killers of the Flower Moon? It could surprise and reach 100M

It could be close to that 2B WW. They are already over 525M combined, so they would need close to 4x that WW opening.

I began following box office reading a magazine here in Spain in 1995. In 1997 I began following it online thanks to cinema1.com (disappeared but had daily updates), guru and imdb. That year in top100 DOM and WW there were still under 100M DOM/200M WW grossers. BO was changing dramatically and it was thrilling. Almost three decades following BO... And for me this has to be one of the most surprising and defining BO weekends. Not just because of the grosses but also because of the kind of movies that achieved that and how they reached these openings.

234,567,890 Barbie 170M Opp 64.6M

Nothing to worry about. 2022 May, June and early July were strong and almost on par with prepandemic levels. 2023 Summer will close the gap in the following weeks and will finish over last year's Summer. Moreover, September, October and November 2023 schedule look way stronger than 2022. More things to be happy about: the gross spreads to more films this year.

Didn't saw it! Joined with YES

And then, August also has potential to match prepandemic levels, thanks to holdovers and openers that should do fine (TMNT, Meg2) or should at least add more than 40M (Gran Turismo, Blue Beetle).

Could next weekend be the highest grossing weekend in postcovid era? It needs to surpass 282M

Yeah, the gap with 2022 is about to increase. Late July, August and September schedule are way stronger than last year. 2023 is looking to finish with around 9.5 billion. Still behind prepandemic level, but over last year's 7.36 billion.

This left me thinking what are my WTF underperformers following BO. Scream 4 would be one of them. I really thought hype/nostalgia was there and that it would open over 40M.

Sound Of Freedom 2nd weekend over OW? That would be awesome! If Barbie doesn't overperform like crazy, SOF could become the success story of the Summer. And it would be an original under the radar non IP movie.

So do I I don't understand what's so funny about wanting something good to bomb

So Insidious, MI7, Oppenheimer and Barbie are about to deliver strong openings. Nice!