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You are right, but it would require both Flash and Elemental to extremely disappoint, IMHO. Proximity to ID will boost gross and in their second weekend they wont miss PLF. No Hard Feelings might also gross over 30M. If I have to guess, I would say all 3 will gross 30M+ that weekend, but not by much.

SMB wonderful April run was key to achieve that, but also a strong set of February/March openers. Ant Man, Creed, Scream, Shazam, Wick, D&D. Crazy to think that Shazam's opening and Ant Man second weekend were the ones to almost kill this record.

Incredible record then for 2023!

I would be really surprised if Indy 5 and MI7 don't reach 250M+ I agree that Flash is a longshot at this moment. Cant see Barbie over 250M. What about Haunted Mansion?

I would say yes. With possible 7.5-8M previews it only needs 7x. Easy multiplier given WOM should be decent/solid and Transformers expected healthy walkups from GA.

TGM increased just 11% in first Tuesday of June.

Strong Tuesday. 16% increase.

This has been the 16th consecutive weekend with a movie grossing 30M+. When will this streak end? Looking at schedule first possible weekend to miss 30M is August 11th, with Gran Turismo opening and 2nd weekend of TMNT and The Meg 2. After that weekend, Blue Beetle should open over 30M. So the streak should finish at 25-27 weekend. 6 months. I cant recall any longer streak with 30M grossers.

It could fall short of 150M, but not by much. Looking at presales, Rise of the Beasts could open in the 50-60M range. It's set to outgross Bumblebee

I agree it's really unlikely. Anyways, a month ago I would have said under 300M and now I am more in 500M+ train with a chance of 600M. 150M DOM 400M OS

What about Transformers? Reviews are more solid than I thought, OS markets love the franchise and DOM presales are not that bad. A month ago I would have bet it would be the disaster of the Summer, but now...

Time for May's recap and June's forecast May closed around 60M under my predicted cumulative gross. LOL at my predictions besides tentpoles. We need more middle ground success stories! In the end, May'23 closed just behind May'22. June's predictions: Openers (800M) Across the Spiderverse: 300M Boogeyman: 40M Transformers: 80M Asteroid City: 10M Blackening: 20M Elemental: 90M Flash: 180M No Hard Feelings: 35M Indiana Jones 5: 30M Ruby Gillman: 5M Rest: 10M Holdovers (230M) TLM: 120M Guardians: 45M FastX: 35M Rest: 30M June Cumulative gross: 1,030M, slightly over last year's (970M). We could see higher numbers for Spiderverse, Elemental, Flash, No Hard Feelings...

My 3Day/4Day guesses before numbers arrive TLM - 111M / 136M FX - 27M / 34M GOTGV3 - 21M / 27M SMB - 5.5M / 7M KANDAHAR - 5M / 6M AMF - 4.5M / 5.5M MACHINE - 3.5M / 4M BC2 - 1.6M - 2.2M EDR - 1.1M / 1.6M AYTG? - 0.8M / 1.2M TOP 10 3day/4day 181M / 224.5M

It looks like they are playing it safe. Still, 10M+ would be an awesome start. Aladdin had 7M previews and grossed 116.8M over the 4day opening

Could we have an scenario similar to The Batman/Guardians3? A scenario where an important part of the audience is reluctant to buy tickets until quality confirmed. If it happens, could we talk about a change of pattern regarding the way audience receives a new CBM entry?

IMHO, more likely 110M than120M 3day. Maverick had stellar WOM and grossed 126M 3day after a 19.3M previews and 33M true Friday.

Looks like 12M previews. And @keysersoze123 data for Friday points to a possible 30M.

So TLM aiming for 40-45M Friday+previews. This is huge. Other recent MD tentpoles: TGM (52M OD), Aladdin (31.3M), Solo (35.3M), Pirates5 (23.5M)

Extremely unlikely. It should close DOM run probably around 580M. Still an incredible and unexpected run.

Good Monday, but it's probably a bit inflated. It was holiday in Canada, I think

It's not just about quality, because we have seen recently disappointing runs forThe Covenant and Are you there, God? Before Covid, those two, Book Club 2 and Love Again would have been more succesful. To fully recover, we need higher grosses for these kind of movies. Let's see what will happen with Kandahar and About My Father, but it doesn't look great for any of them.

Almost certainly over 150M MD weekend + Summer dailies should help with legs

Tentpoles are doing fine this May, but it's really sad to see everything else bombing. Hipnotic, Book Club... Right now, May has grossed close to 500M, but I am unsure the month will reach 800M