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catlover

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Everything posted by catlover

  1. catlover
    Wow a Japanese singalong version. It could give a big boost if they play it right. Yeah, people there are not familiar with singalong movies so I hope they advertise it well. I think it's Disney's effort to minimize screen loss when a bunch of blockbuster movies hit the theaters on April 26.
  2. catlover
    Yup! This is what I meant about using prediction as fixed point. It doesn't make sense. The best way to compare different predictions for the same object is using the difference in dollar. Percentages (with actual values as the bases) are used the best when you're comparing predictions for different objects. For example, Movie A made 100m, you predicted 50m. You're 50% off. Movie B made 400m, you predicted 350m. You're 12.5% off. The 2nd one is obviously the better prediction even though the difference in dollar is the same as the 1st one. This method is the simplest one, and it's very logical. But of course, you can use different methods depends on your purposes (like the rules for BOM derby). Well, until last weekend, Frozen was on course to more than 200M. But that's ignoring post-SB drop and competitions. This week changes its course in a big way. I predict it's gonna be around 90M after this weekend. With that number, it's now on course to around 150M. With singalong and just so Frozen beats Avatar in Yen, I'll say 156M. Btw, I think you need to maybe chill a little bit. You know, before you insult people who disagree with you. This is not Wall Street.
  3. catlover
    Yeah this weekend is the last weekend with no big competitions for Frozen so I'm glad they've added showtimes to maximize its potential.
  4. catlover
    What the hell are you talking about? It's box office, not a war lol. Overestimation is not better than underestimation. It might cause you a huge loss too (overproducing a product, overestimating the number of people who are going to see a concert or a movie that you produced, etc). And what do you mean by "100% off means 0% correct"? So if I predict 60m and it ends up with 150m does that mean I'm 150% off and -50% correct? That doesn't even make sense. Yes percentage is used to show the accuracy of a prediction, but it's relative to the actual value, not the predicted value. So you use the same value (the actual value) as your base. Assume that the actual value is 150m. If your prediction is 75m, then you're 50% off, and if you're prediction is 230m, then you're 53.3% off. How can you compare percentages if you use different bases? I'm a mathematician, and I deal with statistics and probability everyday. Maybe you have a different method so correct me if I'm wrong, but that's how I understand it and use it in mathematics. And wow, I'm surprised you haven't even seen Frozen. Maybe you should. But then you might not like it since musicals aren't your thing. I respect your taste in movies though. The Godfather and Shawshank Redemption are two of my favorite movies of all time. I also love the other movies you mentioned.
  5. catlover
    To be fair, if Frozen finishes with $150M, $75M will be closer than $230M. Also, in Yen, even if Frozen makes 18b ($180M), those $75M predictions will still be closer than Spirited Away number (30b). And you have to admit, the probability for Frozen to exceed 18n yen is not that big, so in the end, those "foolish" predictions made by "silly" people will be closer than the "reasonable" Spirited Away ones.
  6. catlover
    It actually makes sense. Now that the kids and teens are going back to school, the admissions before 2 pm dropped relatively big. Less kids also means less parents. But nothing really changed to the other grown ups. They still go to the evening shows. That's why after 2 pm, the admissions didn't drop as big. As the result, the admissions between 2 pm and 10 pm are now bigger. You can also see from the number for each version of Frozen at Toho. Monday: TOHOサイト上映25分前販売数：20140407 （22:00 集計） 販売数　座席数　回数　作品名 17732　116725　302　アナと雪の女王（Dubbed） *2527　*24978　*95　アナと雪の女王（Subtitled） *1165　**8401　*20　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・Subtitled） **368　**1450　**5　アナと雪の女王（Dubbed・ＴＣＸ） **276　**3546　**9　アナと雪の女王（Subtitled・ＴＣＸ） **134　**1612　**4　アナと雪の女王　（３Ｄ・Subtitled・ＡＴＭＯＳ・ＴＣＸ） Tuesday: TOHOサイト上映25分前販売数：20140408 （22:00 集計） 販売数　座席数　回数　作品名 11424　116425　302　アナと雪の女王（Dubbed）-35.6% *2202　*24978　*95　アナと雪の女王（Subtitled）-12.9% *1061　**8401　*20　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・Subtitled）-9% **259　**3142　**8　アナと雪の女王（Subtitled・ＴＣＸ）-6% **195　**1612　**4　アナと雪の女王　（３Ｄ・Subtitled・ＡＴＭＯＳ・ＴＣＸ）+45.5% **119　***870　**3　アナと雪の女王（Dubbed・ＴＣＸ）-67.7% As you can see, the dubbed versions (which are seen mostly by kids and family), dropped much bigger than the subtitled versions. It's really interesting.
  7. catlover
    I think Friday will be higher than that. Wednesday too. Although your numbers seem to make more sense.
  8. catlover
    Well, yesterday was the last day of spring break, so a bigger drop is actually expected today. Besides, people (especially women) probably wait until tomorrow to see it. Why would you expect it to be inflated? It was Monday that was supposed to be inflated for being the last day of spring break, and it was. For many people, today is probably the first day of school/college/work (academic year begins in April and ends the following March), they have a lot of things to think about. It's not exactly a day to go to the movies. So of course it's gonna drop . Also, Coming from a higher weekend does not mean it will have higher weekdays, especially when the weekend was inflated for being the last weekend of spring break. I think we're just too spoiled with Frozen's number. I mean, it's the 4th Tuesday! A couple of days ago we were talking about whether it's gonna increase for the 3rd weekend in a row or not, and then disappointed when it dropped 3% lol. Tell that to the people in other threads and they will be scratching their heads . I'm thinking at least 14-15m week which is very good for a post-SB week.
  9. catlover
    It's possible, but we still need to see how well it's holding after the spring break this week and next week when it faces Detective Conan, a local animation. For now I'm thinking 130M.
  10. catlover
    Wow it's even more dominating on a weekday. Frozen also had the best drop from last Monday (Toho numbers) despite having family crowds. Strong weekdays, strong weekends, it's attracting all kinds of demographics. So I think it won't collapse post-SB. Frozen -45.6% Doraemon -78.5% Kamen Rider -67.4% Snow White Murder Case -51.2% Team Batista -60.8% The Secret Life of Walter Mitty -52.1%
  11. catlover
    Actually, Detective Conan is released 2 weekends from now (April 19). Same demographics, so not only it will be a strong competition, with OW around $6M, it will also challenge Frozen for the #1 spot.
  12. catlover
    Frozen 4th weekend 642,489 adm (-7%), 850.91M Yen (-3%). Total 6,353,035 adm, 7.78b Yen. I don't know the currency right now, but that's around $8.3m weekend and $75.5M total I think? A drop, but only 3% in gross, and only 7% in admission. Very nice!
  13. catlover
    Not to mention the story itself, about letting go of your suppressed feelings and be yourself, being persistent, optimistic and not giving up for something you believe, and sacrificing yourself for someone you love. Those things relate to Japanese so much. The sisters relationship also plays a big part, because family is very important in Asian culture. That's why I thought Frozen would definitely be a contender for $100M. But since Japanese market is so unpredictable (I never thought Ted would be that big), I was more conservative in my predictions. Now, there's no need to do that.
  14. catlover
    You're probably right. The bump from DF should have been much bigger than that. What caused the increase than? Is it possible that the DF was indeed just 3 or 4 theaters?
  15. catlover
    I think this weekend's increase happened because of the double feature with CA2. It will still have dollar theater expansion, so 400M is locked. Although for me, it has been locked for months, even with the big drops after the DVD release.
  16. catlover
    Unfortunately, sandwiched between Detective Conan and TASM2 (and 2 other local movies), and with Frozen still going strong, I don't think it will do much. But maybe it will surprise us. I hope it will, I love the movie. Yeah, I'm counting on the higher prices, and other chains having smaller drops. But even with a drop, its 4th weekend will still be bigger than its OW.
  17. catlover
    So 7.3% drop at Toho. Does this mean it's dropping too in Yen (or USD) this weekend? Or we can still hope for an increase?
  18. catlover
    More than 39000 actually (39206). Last Sunday it was 44173. It dropped, but still within the limit for an increase in revenue.
  19. catlover
    I don't think so. The movie version was the one that was constantly used in promotion for months. Just look at the iTunes chart. Top Singles: 1. Let It Go - Takako Matsu (movie version) 2. Let It Go - Idina Menzel 3. Umarete hajimete (FTFTIF) - Sayaka Kanda, Takako Matsu 5. Let It Go - May J (pop version) 8. Yukidaruma tsukurou (DYWTBAS) - Sayaka Kanda Matsu and Idina's versions have been dominating the top 2 for weeks now. So the movie version is actually more popular than the pop version, just like in America. If they release the Japanese version in physical copies it will sell a lot more. But it's only available on iTunes, and it has stayed at #1 on the iTunes album chart for weeks.
  20. catlover
    I think it's never happened before. Well, almost never. There's one movie that did it: Confessions (2010). But it had a much lower OW ($2.9M) compared to Frozen. Interestingly, Takako Matsu is in both movies, as the lead role in Confessions, and as Elsa in the dubbed version of Frozen.
  21. catlover
    But MU & TS3 also had Obon holiday, which has pretty much the same effects as Golden Week. Frozen won't have strong weekdays like they did. But it looks like Frozen skews older so weekdays will still be good I think. Not as good as SB weekdays, but stronger than MU & TS3 without summer, and maybe even as strong as MU & TS3 in summer. And that is an amazing Saturday number! That bodes well for another increase this weekend . It depends on Sunday number. But even with a drop on Sunday from last week, weekend number could still increase.
  22. catlover
    Just saw CA2. I freaking LOVED it!! I'm surprised some people didn't like the 3rd act. For me it was very entertaining, and without that, the whole movie would have been just good, not great. I mean, maybe it's generic (although that's not always a bad thing), but it's a superhero movie. It should have an action spectacle in the end, especially the one that's well-directed. So go Cap! Get that 100M OW!
  23. catlover
    Yeah, I've never seen a movie that is still playing in theaters but already available on DVD at the same time, even when that movie has crazy legs. So I don't think we have to worry about DVD release problem that killed Frozen's legs in North America. Nice number for today btw! Bigger than last Friday. Can it increase again this weekend? That would be crazy, but Frozen will have more seats and showtimes, at least at Toho. Even with lower admissions than last weekend it could still have bigger gross.
  24. catlover
    Maybe because it's spring break? So Friday would be like any other weekday. I think it's will be "stronger" in a normal week. We've never seen that on Frozen because its 1st Friday was OD, 2nd Friday was a holiday, 3rd and 4th Fridays are in the middle of spring break. Or, from my experience in Japan, people there just don't go to the movies on Friday, they go out to have drinks with their colleagues instead, after working all week.
  25. catlover
    With higher ticket price it still has better 2pm update than Monday? And higher than last Thursday? So new ticket prices don't seem to affect it then.
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