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catlover

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Everything posted by catlover

  1. catlover
    Yeah I'm curious too, but to be able to see daily trends we need to see the numbers on each day for all movies. It's hard to do that because there are no nationwide daily reports in Japan. That's why we can only estimate and compare numbers from theater chains, and only few of them report their numbers. And those reports are not easy to get.
  2. catlover
    This. Its 2nd Wednesday might be its biggest day so far admission-wise (or at least close to it). Normal or not, that's impressive. It's even more impressive if you think that even though it's a discount day and spring break, it's not a holiday, people still go to work.
  3. catlover
    LOL. Bigger admissions than last Sunday, which was already bigger than opening Sunday. I know it's discount day & spring break but still.
  4. catlover
    Well, people in SK go to the movies more often than Japanese, especially now. I think the last movie with 10m+ admissions in Japan was Avatar in 2009. Meanwhile, since 2009, there are 7 movies with 10m+ admissions in SK. Their movie going habit and frequency are different so I don't think you can compare them using population. But I agree, the WOM for Frozen is just crazy and it will help its legs. Increasing in its 2nd weekend without any holiday support was indeed a sign that this is something else. Friday was a holiday but I don't think it affected Sat & Sun. In fact, it should have deflated its weekend number a little bit, since a lot of people went to see the movies on Friday instead of Sat or Sun, but it still increased from previous weekend. And yeah, it was a perfect storm. The hype, the release date, the Japanese voice casts, couldn't been better than this. And honestly I want it to beat AIW, at least in yen, because Frozen deserves more than that movie (I wanted TS3 to beat it too, but it couldn't). Seriously, how the hell did it manage to get a 9.5x multiplier and make 11.8b yen?
  5. catlover
    That's what I thought too, so far it's following the trajectory in SK but with bigger gross. Especially if it increases in its 3rd weekend. It's possible, but not certain though, since apparently Frozen skews older than most kids/animated films. And usually, only kids/animated films increase on the weekend in the middle of spring break (last weekend of March), while others have small drops.
  6. catlover
    It is. That's why the weekday numbers so far increased significantly from last week.
  7. catlover
    Was Monday a discount day in Kinezo? Because that Monday number is unusually high. If I remember correctly, last week 2 pm update was less than 2000?
  8. catlover
    That's around $8.5 weekend and $29.4m total. I was right, 7% increase was too low.
  9. catlover
    That's my projection too, for now. I kinda hope it can increase again in its 3rd weekend. It's possible. And if it happens 110m+ total. And yeah, it's Golden Week.
  10. catlover
    Wow it has already beat Beyonce? Nice!
  11. catlover
    Okay then. Now that we've said what we wanted to say, back to Japan's box office. I also think it's too low. I thought it would be around 8.5m. And no reports from Toho for this Sunday to compare. Well, at least it did increase, and that's great! Also, big drops for other movies, makes Frozen's increase more impressive, and God's Medical Records 2 bombed. Before Frozen opened people were saying it's gonna debut at #1.
  12. catlover
    If you're allowed to make high predictions and defend them with your reasons, then people can also disagree with you and defend their opinions with their reasons (for example, by saying it's not pixar, not sequel etc). They might be wrong in the end, and you are right, because apparently you're the best predictor here with your knowledge in trading stock market, but they didn't do anything wrong. Besides, I don't think anyone told you it's crazy to predict TS3 number for Frozen. Those "you're crazy" responses were for the predictions involving Spirited Away number, because that is, well, crazy. If someone makes an extreme prediction, of course people will react. It would have been the same if someone had predicted $30m in Japan. It's okay to make extreme predictions, but you have to be prepared for the reactions from others. Also, you're acting like you're the only one who gets a lashing, and it's you vs. everybody else. A lot of posters here get it too because of their conservative predictions. It's okay to disagree, but please don't play the victim and be so condescending like that. I'm really sorry if I'm being too harsh. Just need to get it off my chest. Anyway, back to Frozen. 7% increase means $8m weekend? That's great! Maybe that early report will end up being low again.
  13. catlover
    Nice! Are those numbers for Frozen bigger than last Saturday at the same point? Really sad about Lego though. I knew it would bomb in Japan, but still. It's such an excellent movie. ETA : So they are bigger than last Saturday.
  14. catlover
    I think summer holiday didn't start until MU's 2nd Monday. BOM didn't have its 3rd weekend number but if I'm not mistaken, MU's 2nd week was bigger than its 1st week. Friday was a holiday for Frozen so that really helped too. But it's still impressive.
  15. catlover
    It's only for Friday. Like LABAS said, they took the biggest screens from Frozen to accommodate special screenings for a Japanese movie, with appearances by the actors/actresses. Don't worry, they gave the big screens back to Frozen for Saturday & Sunday showings.
  16. catlover
    Actually, what you said also makes sense since Sunday is usually bigger than Saturday. Well, we'll see.
  17. catlover
    But isn't the 2nd day usually the biggest day on 3-day holiday? So it should be Saturday>Friday>Sunday?
  18. catlover
    These are pretty much done. Skyfall is the real target now . And with reports saying that the presales for Friday in Japan are pretty much the same as last Sunday, an increase this weekend looks more likely now.
  19. catlover
    Btw Tangled will be aired for the first time tonight in Japan. During the commercials (or after the broadcast, I'm not sure), they will show 7 minutes of Frozen. I think it will boost its weekend number.
  20. catlover
    I don't know, I don't see a lot of 100% increase on Ladies Day, even for female-oriented movies. Especially when Monday & Tuesday were already great. But maybe I'm wrong.
  21. catlover
    It's Ladies Day today (Wed), so I knew it's gonna be big, and I saw tons of sellouts, but doubled Tuesday's number? That's amazing.
  22. catlover
    Okay, maybe not half, but certainly lower OW. In mid-December Frozen had only made $164.8 in NA and people predicted its total to be $250m, while its OS total was only $101.6m. Do you think those numbers would create a hype big enough for a big OW in Japan? We didn't even realize Frozen's potential until the 3rd or 4th week of its US run. Frozen was released in most countries in mid to late December, and we didn't get the whole box office numbers for Christmas & New Year until after the holiday. So we just realized how big Frozen was in January. You said a country as wired as Japan, WOM spreads extremely fast. That's true, but only within the country itself. They don't speak English, and the interest in English is relatively low compared to other countries. How could the WOM reach Japan? It could actually, through Japanese media. They were the one that brought the hype for Frozen to Japan. But they didn't pick it until January, because again, people didn't realize how big Frozen was gonna be. That's what made the difference. Even if you think the hype wasn't that different between December & January, but it sure is much much bigger now than in December, don't you think? Well that was my argument on why I think Frozen would have lower OW in December. But I don't know why Disney always releases their thanksgiving movies in March, instead of December. Maybe the same reason for Frozen, to build hype, because Disney animations are not as big as Pixar. But in this case, for Frozen, I still think March release was the best option.
  23. catlover
    I copied from Japan BO thread. Frozen 3-day actuals: 986.4M yen($9.72M) Sat-sun OW: 763.4M yen($7.53m), 90.1% of MU. OW admissions: 602,347 (MU:614,969) Admission-wise it was very close to MU. It would have beaten MU with Saturday release. I'm still amazed.
  24. catlover
    Very nice for Frozen! Bigger that reported number. Doraemon is pretty strong too, despite facing big opening from Frozen.
  25. catlover
    Again, you answered your own question. The same thing with Frozen. if WOM is strong enough, it can have winter legs in spring. Speaking of WOM, yes it was great back then in December, but not as great as today. No "$1b WW", "3rd biggest 5th & 6th weekend in the US", "#1 on Billboard 200" marketing, because well, those hadn't happened yet. Let It Go also hadn't been as big. That marketing, and the songs (especially Let It Go) were the things that eventually pushed its OW to be that big. So yeah, I'm pretty sure it would have smaller OW in December. By January, the hype got bigger than ever. Correct me if I'm wrong, in SK, mid-January was the perfect release date. Enough hype from other countries to build solid OW, and then lunar new year holiday to boost its gross. But in Japan, January & February are not the best months to release a movie. No holiday boost, no breaks. So March release was actually the best option, with spring breaks, 3-day holiday this weekend, and Golden Week to help its late legs. Also, think about this. Nobody knew that Frozen would be this big. Like I said, In Japan, Disney thanksgiving movies have always been released in March. It's working really well for those movies before, so why would they change the release date for Frozen?
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