peludo

Sure. It is sold about 4 or 5 times more tickets than a usual weekday. Every film is boosted. And if the film has special relevance as Joker, even more. This is the ranking of these discount periods, which started 10 years ago (admissions reported x €2.90 each ticket): 1. Ocho apellidos vascos: €2.64m 2. A monster calls: €2.60m (after €2.8m 3rd weekend) 3. Infinity War: €1.68m (after €2.5m 2nd weekend) 4. Dracula Untold: €1.35m 5. Age of Ultron: €1.32m 6. The Jungle Book: €1.25m (after €1.6m 4th weekend) 7. Civil War: €1.23m 8. The Martian: €1.07m 9. Campeones: €1.07m 10. Guardians of the Galaxy 2: €989k Basically, there are local hits (3) and SH films (4). The most similar case to Joker could be The Jungle Book. Joker did €3.1m last weekend. We could see a 50% drop (€1.5m-€1.6m 4th weekend). Asuming the same behaviour, it could gross 1.2-1.3 million during Mon-Wed period. And after that, a long weekend. We have basically a 10 days weekend starting today in terms of box office.

We could see a hard drop in Spain this weekend precisely because those discount days. That drop will be recovered by far during Monday-Wednesday period in Spain with €2.90 tickets, so do not be worried if you see a 50% drop on Sunday in Spain. Said this, Dark Fate is not being released here this weekend, but next one.

WW All time (top 200) and a couple of lists with biggest movies not reaching certain spots. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/charts/overall/?area=XWW But yes, DAMN

Well, Star Wars has always been big in Spain. And initial presales are always big for this kind of films. I would still not say this is beating records.

WTF do they have done with the site??? I started to follow actively box office thanks to BOM by 2004 or so. It was sooo easy to track any data. I can not believe what I am seeing...

Yes, it is being released there. It is just they do not care about Star Wars and it will make very low numbers.

Kinepolis Madrid The Lion King had sold 5,816 tickets by the day of the release Star Wars IX has sold 6,120 tickets 57 days before of the release

You are absolutely right. I do not know why I had asumed that Mon-Thu's first week it had grossed nearly the same than the weekend. And it has more sense (to drop to 2 million from 3.2 means a 37.5% drop, way more similar to the 32% of the weekend). Thank you for correcting me

Other relevant recent 3rd weekends: TFA: €3.26m (Christmas) - €25.36m cume Joker: €3m - €17m (estimated cume) A monster calls: €2.81m - €15.64m Aladdin: €2.49m - €15.08m Bohemian Rhapsody: €2.33m - €11.97m Beauty & the Beast: €2.31m - €16.20m The Lion King: €2.23m - €24.87m An comparing to other SH films: Joker: €3m - €17.0m Endgame: €1.64m - €25.19m Infinity War: €1.48m - €17.7m Incredibles 2: €1.33m - €13.47m Captain Marvel: €1.17m - €9.4m Aquaman: €1.16m (Christmas) - €9.87m Deadpool: €1m - €8.24m The second Mon-Thu period has dropped a 37.5% (€2m vs €3.2m). For the moment, I can not see it missing €23m, and it should try 24-25. With that result, it would be 2nd biggest SH film ever: 1. Endgame: €29.18m 2. Spider-man: €22.66m 3. Incredibles 2: €21.15m 4. Infinity War: €20.50m 5. The Incredibles: €19.64m

Your first prediction was great Maleficent 2 has done €2.9m Joker has barely won, with €3m. That means a 32% drop.

Let's see: 3rd weekend OS Deadpool: $40m Venom: 32 Deadpool 2: 41 Joker: 77 After 3rd weekend OS (multiplier from 3rd weekend) Deadpool: 96 (x2.4) Venom: 84 (x2.6) - Excluding China Deadpool 2: 83 (x2.1) Unless Joker suddenly collapses, I can not see it doing the Deadpool 2 multiplier. With legs a bit better than Deadpool and a bit worse than Venom (x2.5) from now, it would do $192m more, so $682m OS. With same legs than Venom and Logan DOM, it makes $315m. With both Deadpool legs, about $325m. That means 997-1.007b WW, and this asuming normal legs OS from now. IMO, it is reaching the billion.

According comScore, Joker wins Friday over Maleficent (no numbers)

If I have to bet, I think Joker wins (maybe easily) the weekend. Maybe 2.5-3 million for Joker and 1.5-2 million for Maleficent (every number is in euros).

Thank you as always I did not tracked other live action films, so I can not compare. Obviously, Maleficent is not the same kind of film than Joker, but I see this at Kinepolis Madrid for this weekend right now: Fri-Sun presales: Maleficent: 868 tickets (38 showtimes) Joker: 624 tickets (42 showtimes) Concerning if Maleficent can be frontloaded, the distribution of the 868 tickets along the weekend is: Friday: 404 tickets Saturday: 357 Sunday: 107 It does not seem too frontloaded. SH films, for example, use to be Friday = 2xSaturday or even more.

Yes, the 392 million figure includes every country.

Deadpool did $5.16m on its second Tuesday (February 23rd).

Spain (official data): OW: €4,461,390 2nd: €4,484,575 (+0.5%) Basically flat. Edit: It is already the 2nd biggest DC film ever (€12.0m), just behind Aquaman, which will be outgrossed along this week (€13.8m)

IMHO, $900m are locked. It should try the billion.

And applying that 40% drop until the end of the run everywhere from now it would finish with about $985m.

Maybe it is early and I should wait until next weekend to say this, but I am already thinking in Joker beating Endgame (€29m)...

The provisional data for the weekend is €4.4m, which is exactly the same provided last week. I would not rule out that the definitive number (on Wednesday) could finally deliver a 0% drop, or even an slight increase. If it starts to drop like a CBM from now, and delivers, for example, a run like Captain Marvel, it would finish with about €23m, enough to be #4 of the year (Aladdin ranks #3 with €25m). But I doubt it will follow that kind of usual run. IMO, it already has a chance to beat Endgame as the 2nd film of the year (EG did €29m; TLK seems, for the moment, unreachable, with €37m), and become the biggest CBM film ever.

Pretty agree. More than the 123m, the data to look at is the drop. And we have to take into account that the leggiest market, Japan, is deflated because the typhoon. To make over $600m OS without China is something that just Avengers films and IM3 have done it. And Joker is doing it without 3D. OS-China (from BOM) - Over 400m: Endgame: 1,323 Infinity War: 1,010 Avengers: 809 Age of Ultron: 706 Iron Man 3: 684 The Dark Knight Rises: 584 Civil War : 565 Captain Marvel: 547 Black Panther: 545 Far from Home: 542 Spider-man 3: 535 Aquaman: 522 The Dark Knight: 469 Deadpool 2: 460 Batman v Superman: 448 TASM: 447 Homecoming: 430 Ragnarok: 426 Suicide Squad: 421 Deadpool: 420 Spider-man: 413 TASM2: 412

Which ones are they? I see some SH films this year that has not grossed 1 billion: Shazam, Hellboy and Dark Phoenix.

Maybe we should start to asume that this is not a normal CBM. It is not a PG-13, it is not a coloured film, it has not 3D, ... it seems anything else but a normal CBM. And the behaviour in BO is obviously not the same. Of course, I can be wrong, but It seems more a Bohemian Rhapsody than a FFH in terms of BO.

If it is not to speculate about numbers, then why are we here?