peludo

$900m? That is what it would do with just normal legs from now. Seeing the international figures breakdown, I am convinced some of those markets are flat or they even have increased from OW. The example I better know: Spain OW: $4.8m Today: $13.7m Week: $8.9m Even if it has done the same during weekdays than during weekend, we would be talking about less than 10% drop. Asuming a $4.5m 2nd weekend (what is bigger than FFH OW in Spain), and asuming SAME legs than FFH it will reach here $25m. But I doubt it will have the same legs. IMO, the title of biggest SH film ever in Spain ($32m of Endgame) is in play, what means to be in top 10 all time. Talking about WW, 1 billion is likely. And $1.1b is in play.

It is not only China. We use to focus on China because it is the most spectacular change, but there are many markets which have grown a lot in last 15 years: Brazil, Mexico, some Asian countries like Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia... To make 1 billion 15 years ago was nearly a miracle. All of us know what kind of beast was Titanic. But ROTK did more than 1.1b without China (it did 10 million there). The first Harry Potter did 975 million without those expanding markets and the worst exchange rates I can remember (1€=0.90$ in late 2001).

Right now, I am thinking that it could become the 2nd biggest SH film ever in Spain, just behind Endgame. Unless it suddenly collapses, and seeing the trend, $900m seems a good bet.

Or even less... I have been seeing +90% full every showtime. It is probable that the Joker's 2nd weekend can be bigger than any DC OW, excepting Joker's OW... It seems an OW of an anticipated movie. It is crazy.

That would mean about 450-500 OS. I think it will go higher than that. I have the feeling that the drop in some European countries this weekend can surprise even more than the OW figures.

Well, this is not the usual CBM film... I would bet right now that it is reaching a x5 multiplier in Spain, if not more, for example.

Yes, drop will probably be better than what presales say. As I said, I had never tracked a 2nd weekend.

With great legs, it could even approach to 400 DOM so... 1 billion chance??

At Kinepolis Madrid (presales for the whole weekend): Gemini: 151 tickets Joker: 1,989 tickets There is today one Joker's showtime which has sold 50 more tickets than Gemini in the whole weekend... Joker had sold 3,705 tickets one week ago. Asuming the same multiplier, it would mean a 46% drop. So we would have a €2.4m 2nd weekend for Joker. But I had never tracked a 2nd weekend. I do not know if I can extrapolate in the same way... we'll know it on Sunday.

If Joker delivers that $8.25m Thursday, cume will be $138.6m, 58 million behind CM at the same point. Captain Marvel did a $68m 2nd weekend, and as @Charlie Jatinder says, Joker could go as high as 63-65 because of holidays. After that, CM dropped a 50% during its 3rd weekend, something that Joker could match. It would mean to, more or less, keep the gap of about 60-65 million. With decent drops from then, this would mean Joker could try 350-360? even higher if gets several Oscar noms? It sounds so absurd...

Concerning Joker (€4.46m), it is the biggest opening ever for a DC film. The previous one was TDKR with €3.56m. BvS opened to €5.5m, but it did it in 5 days. Joker OW has been the usual 3 days period.

I asumed the data reported last week was wrong because it seemd too high, but comScore says that they have revised and updated the TLK's number. Right now, TLK already ranks #5 all time. It will stay there: 4. Titanic: €41,615,692 5. The Lion King: €37,075,282 6. Ocho apellidos catalanes: €36,144,160 And it ranks #13 all time adjusted. It has a chance of reaching The Others: 11. The Two Towers: 6,433,088 admissions 12. The Others: 6,410,561 13. The Lion King (2019): 6,361,785 14. The Lion King (1994): 6,319,833

Agreed. I do not know if it will reach 800, but, for the moment, I have it in the 750-800 range. Maybe DOM legs will be as other CBM films, but I do not see it having the same kind of run in Europe. It is being seen as a different kind of movie. I will not say this is another Bohemian Rhapsody, but who knows...

$10.5m more than yesterday estimates!!???!!??

€4.4m is just €300k less than Aladdin OW, for example. And the same than Age of Ultron (although it opened in Thursday and the Fri-Sun number is deflated). And it is great for Mientras dure la guerra. The OW number was depressing.

Of course it matters. Mainly if that million is added on Sunday. It would mean better drops along the weekend, not being so frontloaded and it could imply possible better legs.

Agreed. I do not see this having the typical SH run.

Iniital reactions in Spain are very similar. 8.7/10 on the main Spanish user rating site. It will probably drop. It only has 600 votes (it will reach 5 digits for sure), but it ranks as the 5th best film ever right now... https://www.filmaffinity.com/us/topgen.php

Final presales Spain (biggest theater of the country): FFH: 3,820 tickets Joker: 3,705 tickets Critics here are extremely good, way better than what we see in RT. IMO, Joker is opening over FFH (€4m) and Captain Marvel (€4.1m), talking about other similar films released this year. Talkin about DC, Suicide Squad opened to €2.9m, for reference.

Agreed. Very probably the real number is none we have said

taquillaespana.com (which I think it is a great web) has a problem: it takes numbers from Ministry of Culture web. But I think it has not updated numbers for some films. Avatar sold that amount during the initial release. But it was re-released again in September 2010 (Special edition), selling another 286,368 admissions. You can look it here: Avatar Avatar: Special Edition taquillaespana.com takes numbers of each film. They take Avatar, and they get the Avatar's number. But Avatar: Special Edition is considered a different film and those data are not added. Same applies to E.T and its 20th anniversary edition or the re-releases of both FOTR and TTT. Concerning The Force Awakens, I could be wrong, but I think Ministry of Culture is not completely updated. They say this: The Force Awakens However, the same Ministry of Culture web uploads every week the weekend numbers reported from comScore. The problem is that the historic is not there. You can get the weekends of the current year, but not from previous years. I have been collecting them for several years, and the last appearance of TFA in top 50 was on April 8th-10th, 2016 weekend. By then, TFA was at €33,274,236 and 5,002,215 admissions. Maybe I am wrong and the correct data is the Ministry's web data, but I find a bit strange that comScore had given wrong numbers along the whole TFA's run, since according the historic of weekends, the 4,961,064 figure was reached in February 2016. That would mean that comScore gave wrong numbers for TFA along following 2 months.

Sure. Spain uses to like a lot awarded films. Green Book grossed a similar amount to some Marvel films, for example. To see that a not easy film like Joker having the same presales than Spider-man makes me think we can see a very special run here...

1 day to release (biggest Spain theater) Fri-Sun presales FFH: 2,655 tickets (45 showtimes) TLK: 2,517 (yesterday I commited a mistake. 2 days before release TLK was at 1,916) (66 showtimes) Joker: 2,420 (47 showtimes) OW (Fri-Sun) FFH: €4m TLK: €6.4m Joker: ??? TLK was released on Thursday, so Fri-Sun number is a bit tricky. FFH was nearly a 10% higher in presales. Following that proportion, Joker would open to €3.6m. But I still think this can have better walk-ups than Spidey. I do not dare to say it will open way higher, but...

Some relevant grosses: The Lion King: €35,650,000 (6,060,000 admissions) Estimated data, since the reported this week are wrong. I do not know if it will be able to reach Ocho apellidos catalanes as the 5th biggest film of all time (€36,144,160). Anyway, amazing performance. Aladdin: €25,155,067 (4,715,633 admissions) It ranks #20 all time. It has sold 600k admissions more than the animated version. Toy Story 4: €20,783,054 (3,648,727 admissions) With 24k admissions more than TS3, it has grossed €4m less. Padre no hay más que uno: €13,106,806 (2,299,447 admissions) It will rank #20 all time among local films. It will reach a x10 multiplier. Once upon a time in Hollywood: €11,846,290 (1,933,741 admissions) It has outgrossed Inglourious Basterds (€11.1m) as the biggest Tarantino's film in Spain. It could end with about €12.5m. The secret life of Pets 2: €11,319,000 (1,992,351 admissions) It is making half of the first one (€21.8m and 3.9 million admissions).

2 days to release (biggest Spain theater) Fri-Sun presales FFH: 1,474 tickets TLK: 2,517 Joker: 1,483 Joker has matched Far from home presales at the same point (FFH just had 2,000 seats available per day until the day before of release. Joker has over 3,300 seats per day). We'll see what's the increase tomorrow to compare fairly, since FFH got 6,000 seats per each day of the weekend the day before release. Anyway, Joker has already showtimes over 50% full on Friday, and over 25% on Saturday. Beyond that, critics here are very good and initial score in the main and more trustable Spanish web to vote films (https://www.filmaffinity.com/es/film520214.html) is excellent.