peludo

This could be the 3rd film of the year over $600m (DOM did it last year for the first time). To think that Endgame, after its amazing run, can finish ranking 3rd of the year is incredible.

I would not rule out that Aladdin can finally sell more admissions than Endgame. The gap is lower than 100k... Unless TLK makes something like €50m, Aladdin is undoubtedly the run of the year.

Spain last 2 weekends July 19th-21st July 26th-28th The Lion King continues making big numbers, as expected. Comparing with other remakes: 2nd weekend Beauty & the Beast: €4,607,344 (-19%) Aladdin: €2,930,683 (-38%) Dumbo: €2,814,754 (-19%) The Jungle Book: €2,798,835 (-28%) Cume after 2nd weekend Beauty & the Beast: €12,598,566 Aladdin: €9,634,253 Dumbo: €7,279,508 The Jungle Book: €7,626,680 Multiplier after 2nd weeknd: Beauty & the Beast: x2.04 Aladdin: x4.92 (and counting) Dumbo: x2.45 The Jungle Book: x3.40 None of those films were released in the same season than TLK, but applying those multipliers we have these possible endings for TLK: BatB: €27.8m Aladdin: €40.9m Jungle Book: €34.0m Dumbo: €29.7m I think the Jungle Book's case could be attainable. 33-34 million. But let's see if the drop of this upcoming weekend is closer to Aladdin (-15%) or to BatB (-50%) to know better. Toy Story 4 keeps closing the gap with Incredibles 2. Final range: 20.5-21 million euros. Spider-man could finish with €13m, similar to Captain Marvel. Aladdin has a chance of reaching €25m. No words. As a curiosity, there are 6 French films among top 25 in this last weekend. None of them is in top 10, but I still think it is remarkable.

That is about a 6% drop relative to yesterday. If it follows the same trend, it would finish the day close to 180m.

I guess that Ne Zha's forecast will not be more trustable until we see The Bravest's real impact. The initial forecast for it is "just" 1.165b, but still with a 9.6 rate in Maoyan.

So, basically flat relative to both Monday (135) and Tuesday (140)... amazing

Just to point that I think that the 4.6m figure would be in euros, not in dollars.

That drop implies really strong weekdays (€6.2m in Mon-Thu period). And it means €4.65m 2nd weekend. That is the same, for example, than Aladdin OW, which is currently at €24m, so another €20m could be added from now. Since it is now at €19m, €40m ($44m) could become real. It would be the third biggest gross ever for a Hollywood film, just behind Avatar and Titanic.

Spain number ($21m) seems unreal. That means €18.9m with current XR. TLK did €6.37m 3-day opening and €8.06m 4.day opening. It means €10.84m along 2nd week. Even with high weekedays, that number implies about a mere 10-15% drop relative to 3-day opening. IMHO, and knowing how this kind of films perform here, it will double the current number. 40 million euro total is probable. Maybe more.. That means to target #3 ever (The Impossible €42m). We need to know the weekend number, but this could be a historic run.

My list 1. The Dark Knight (2008) 2. Batman Begins (2005) 3. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) 4. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) 5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) 6. V for Vendetta (2006) 7. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) 8. Asterix in Britain (1986) 9. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (Extended version) (2016) 10. The Avengers (2012) 11. The twelve tasks of Asterix (1976) 12. Nausicaä in the valley of the wind (1984) 13. Road to perdition (2002) 14. Superman (1978) 15. Batman Returns (1992) 16. 300 (2007) 17. Captain America: Civil War (2016) 18. Ant-Man (2015) 19. The wind rises (2013) 20. A history of violence (2005) 21. Wonder Woman (2017) 22. The Incredible Hulk (2008) 23. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) 24. Batman (1989) 25. Man of Steel (2013) 26. Logan (2017) 27. The Addams Family (1991) 28. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) 29. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) 30. Spider-man (2002)

TLK OW: Thursday (OD) €1,693,838 282,922 admissions Friday-Sunday €6,369,251 981,161 admissions 4-day opening €8,063,089 1,264,083 admissions

Already sent my list It is this one:

My bad. I will post it tomorrow.

comScore says TLK's OW is €6.3m, €300k better than initially announced. And I guess that with definitive data (we will know it on Wednesday) it could still go a bit higher, maybe close to €6.5m. With €1.5m from Thursday, that would mean €8m for the 4-day period. IMO, €30m and to be the biggest film of the year, over Endgame, is in play.

If Aladdin has been able to match the admissions figure of the orignal (4.1 million), I do not see any reason to think TLK can not do the same (6.3 million). That would mean to round €40m (about $45m). I know it is too early, but the hype is real.

The Lion King - Final OD presales 2,452 tickets / 6,770 total = 36.22% (1 sellout / 15 showtimes) Far from home OD presales (Friday): 2,235 tickets / 8,020 = 27.87% Endgame, which opened on Thursday too: 6,949 / 7,156 = 97.11% TLK is a 35.29% of EG's OD presales. Obviously, we can not asume the same walk ups for both films. EG had sold nearly every ticket during presales. The gap will narrow along the day. @ScareLol I think you can be quite accurate with the €1.25m OD prediction. I do not know why I had asumed that EG had done €3m during Thursday, when it did €2m.

Me too. I was convinced this had a shot to beat Avatar.

1 day to go (Kinépolis Madrid): Spider-man: Far from home: 2,655 tickets (+1,181) Friday: 1,862 (+807) Saturday: 603 (+288) Sunday: 190 (+86) The Lion King: 4,442 tickets (+1,220) Thursday: 1,925 (+619) - 1 sellout / 15 showtimes Friday: 1,163 (+280) Saturday: 879 (+197) Sunday: 475 (+124) Friday-Sunday: Spider-man: 2,655 (+1,181) The Lion King: 2,517 (+601)

I am thinking in maybe €2m OD and then €6m more from Friday to Sunday. But I do not rule out even more.

2 days to go (Kinépolis Madrid): Spider-man: Far from home: 1,474 tickets (+192) Friday: 1,055 (+146) Saturday: 315 (+42) Sunday: 104 (+4) The Lion King: 3,222 tickets (+739) Thursday: 1,306 (+296) - 1 sellout / 14 showtimes Friday: 883 (+219) Saturday: 682 (+159) Sunday: 351 (+65) Friday-Sunday: Spider-man: 1,474 (+192) The Lion King: 1,916 (+443)

3 days to go (Kinépolis Madrid): Spider-man: Far from home: 1,282 tickets (+194) Friday: 909 (+149) Saturday: 273 (+33) Sunday: 100 (+12) The Lion King: 2,483 tickets (+478) Thursday: 1,010 (+187) - 1 sellout /14 showtimes Friday: 664 (+147) Saturday: 523 (+108) Sunday: 286 (+36) Friday-Sunday: Spider-man: 1,282 (+194) The Lion King: 1,473 (+291)

4 days to go (Kinépolis Madrid): Spider-man: Far from home: 1,088 tickets (+158) Friday: 760 (+123) Saturday: 240 (+26) Sunday: 88 (+9) The Lion King: 2,005 tickets (+264) Thursday: 823 (+87) Friday: 517 (+65) Saturday: 415 (+59) Sunday: 250 (+53) Friday-Sunday: Spider-man: 1,088 (+158) The Lion King: 1,182 (+177) FFH seemed to be way more frontloaded. The daily increases of TLK are very similar along the weekend.

5 days to go: Spider-man: Far from home: 930 tickets Friday: 637 Saturday: 214 Sunday: 79 The Lion King: 1,741 tickets Thursday: 736 Friday: 452 Saturday: 356 Sunday: 197 It is hard to compare since the OD is not the same day, but even after the OD's burnt demand, the Friday-Sunday period of TLK is higher than Spidey's (1,005 vs 930). For the record, FFH opened to €4m. On the other side, Endgame opened on Thursday too. Presales of both Thursday and Friday were about 7,000 tickets each. But the anticipation was enormous since everybody was anxious to know what happened in the film. TLK does not have that factor because everyone already know the story, so it will not be so frontloaded.

I will track it in a couple of hours and I will compare to Far from home (I do not have tracked more films, beyond 2 or 3 last days of Endgame, which was at another level of hype).

Simple: 3D doping 2009 - Avatar: 9.5 million admissions - €77m 2014 - Ocho apellidos vascos (Spanish affair): 9.3 million admissions - €55m Avatar was of course a phenomenon. It is the second most attended film ever (Titanic is the first). Just the mentioned "Spanish affair" has approached to Avatar in terms of admissions. If I remember well, since 2009, just The Impossible (6.1m), Spanish affair 2 (5.6m) and TFA (5m) have reached the 5 million admissions figure, way behind than Avatar's 9.5 million. Finally, add that the average ticket price it had is way higher than today average ticket price: Avatar avg ticket: €8.10 2019 avg ticket: €6.45 I do not know if Avatar will be beaten in next 20 years. It DOUBLED the previous record: Titanic's €38m (today at €41m after the 2012 re-release).