peludo

20 million locked. Next station: BatB with 22 million. Amazing performance. We can see something really crazy with TLK

When? in total? After Wednesday it should already be at about 2.5 million. I think it could finish with about 3.5 million, decently close to the 4.1 million figure of the original.

May 31st - June 2nd: First of all, after Fiesta del Cine celebrated from Monday to Wednesday, it is harder than usual to give estimations, since the grosses and admissions have been boosted but we do not know how much and how it will affect to upcoming holds. Said this, and as we had already seen on Monday, amazing drop for Aladdin after the big OW. I guess it will drop harder this upcoming weekend because many people who wanted to see it will have seen it during this discount period. Anyway, it should be well over €14m after upcoming Sunday, and 18-20 million should be the target. John Wick should outgross it predecessor, which did €1.2m. It should land somwhere between 1.5 and 2 million. Definitely Rocketman is not another Bohemian Rhapsody. This kind of films use to have better legs than usual, but right now I do not see it beyond €3m. Pikachu heading to about 6-6.5 million Endgame could try €29m. Dumbo is finishing with about €14.5m Hellboy is a disgrace: it drops a 73% after the 68% drop of last week.

€25m as minimum? I said that TS3 was hugely inflated by 3D. If TS4 sells the same number of admissions today than TS3 would imply about €20.5m, not €25m. Pixar is widely beloved in Spain. Nearly every Pixar film has made great numbers. But not every sequel has increased. Nemo was adored here (it is the biggest Pixar film in terms of admissions). It did €23.8m. But Dory dropped to €17.7m. Being reasonable and objective, I would say the minimum we can expect for TS4 is 16-18 million euros (let's remember the competition with The Lion King or Pets 2). I insist, MINIMUM. Said this, the logical final range is what @ScareLol says, 20-25 million, probably low 20s.

If I am not wrong, China grossed 60b Yuan last year, what today means $8.8b. Unless there is a bunch of local big films during the second half of the year, I do not see the Chinese market increasing a 25% this year, so those $11b projected for this year seem a chimera. Maybe we will see the market landing in $9b territory this year, but still far from the $12b of DOM market.

No, Spain has not expanded. In fact, it has dropped as a market since 2010, when Toy Story 3 was released (not 2012). Market 2010: €662.3m 2018: €585.7m (still provisional data, but it will not go over €600m) Average ticket price 2010: €6.52 2018: €5.99 And let's remember that TS3 was extremely benefited by 3D explosion after Avatar: Cume: €24,985,359 Admissions: 3,624,912 Avg: €6.89 Last Pixar film (Incredibles 2) did: Cume: €21,147,043 Admissions: 3,722,564 Avg: €5.68

Just curiousity: where did you get that amount for TS4? I have it at €24.99m (Ministry of Culture). And it was released at 2010, not in 2012 Said this, I agree with that 20-25 million initial range.

Don't get angry, but you are doing exactly the same: repeating again and again the same answer. If you don't like what he is repeating, just ignore him

^ The tweet says: 579,088 admissions sold yesterday. It is a 7% higher than the Tuesday of May 2018's Fiesta del Cine.

It is the most beloved animated film ever here. And the musical version is still being showed in Madrid after nearly 8 years. It is far rom being my favorite animated film, but it is obvious that Spain ADORES TLK. We can expect enormous figures for the remake.

Spain: €20,365,244 #49 all time (it ranked #1 in gross until Titanic) #12 all time among animated films 6,319,833 admissions #13 all time (it ranked #5 in admissions after its initial release) #1 all time among animated films Italy: 4,018,061 admissions

For the record: Aladdin (1992) did €12.2m. It adjusts to €26.3m. Incredibles 2 did €21.1m. Aladdin (2019) could match that.

Spain 2nd weekend: €2.9m (-39%). Great hold after an already great OW. The cume should be at about €9.5m. To compare, Dumbo was at €7.3m after 2nd weekend. Today starts "Fiesta del Cine", massive 3-day period of cinema attendance with low prices (€2.90 per ticket). Aladdin will boost its data, maybe with another €2.5-€3m more until Wednesday. As @AN9815 has said, Dumbo's run in Spain is great taking into account the market size. It is not like $400m DOM*, but it could be equivalent to close to $300m*. Said this, I think Aladdin could match €20m, what in terms of Spanish market size is equivalent to about $400m DOM*. * To compare DOM and Spain markets I use this relation: DOM: a bit less than $12b gross during 2018 Spain: €600m in 2018 So €5m is about $100m

It will be released on June 21st

May 24th-26th Impressive opening of Aladdin. For the record, other recent openings: Beauty an the Beast: €5.65m (€22.0m total) The Jungle Book: €3.88m (€16.85m) Dumbo: €3.47m (€14.33m, for the moment) And as @ScareLol says, we have Fiesta del Cine next week which is a massive period of attendance because of low ticket prices. IMO, €20m is in play for Aladdin. Just to put into context, the animated film, with 4.1m admissions, adjusts to €26m. The holdovers have been hit hard by Aladdin. Nearly everything drops over 50%. But since we have the mentioned discount period, it is hard to project final numbers. Let's say: Pikachu: 6.5-7 million euros. Endgame: 28.5-29 million Lo dejo cuando quiera: 11.5-12 million Hellboy: under 1.5 million Dumbo: over 14.5 million Dolor y Gloria could have a push after winning best actor prize in Cannes. It has been the only one with a great drop this last weekend (-8%). €6m should be safe. We'll see after that.

Spain opening is even better than initially announced. €4.7m ($5.2m), second biggest opening of the year, behind Endgame. Considering the behaviour of this kind of movies in Spain, €15m total seems locked. 17-18 million seem possible. Just for the record, Beauty & the Beast opened to €5.6m and finished with €22m.

I like a lot Toy Story franchise, but Spirited Away is in another level. It is exciting to see this release in China (and maybe a great run). I could not enjoy its monster run in Japan, but I will follow this one closely.

May 17th-19th: Good hold for Pikachu. Upcoming competition like Aladdin could hurt it, though. It should reach €6m. Finally an under 50% drop for Endgame. Heading like we have already said to €28.5m (about $32m). Mediocre opening of Hellboy. It could even miss €1.5m "Lo dejo cuando quiera" keeps its great run with a mere 10% drop. €11m locked. "Mia et le lion blanc" is having a great run. This last weekend has increased relative to previous weekend. It started with €0.5m and it has already multiplied by 7. €4m should be reachable, probably more. Dumbo, great. It is reaching €14m. We will see what happens with Aladdin, but the animated film is one of the most beloved ever. It sold 4.1 million admissions, the same than Endgame, for example.

My neighbour Totoro (1988) was released this last December I wish Spirited Away can break out like Coco did. It is my favorite animated film.

and Aquaman

To put into context the success of a film in Spain, and taking into account the size of both Spain and DOM markets we can use this relation: €5m in Spain = $100m DOM * With that premise, €14m of Dumbo is equivalent to $280m DOM. EG's €28.5m-€29m would mean about $575m DOM. *: The relation used to be €6m = $100m, but Spain yearly gross is the same than 15 years ago and DOM has obviously increased.

May 10th-12th: Not bad opening for Pikachu. It could manage a 7 million total. Endgame continues dropping hard, as it is happening domestically. Right now it should enter in top 10, over POTC2 (€28.27m), but #9 seems far right now (TTT, €29.79m). Maybe 28.5-29 million range. Local comedy "Lo dejo cuando quiera" continues with very good drops. €11m in sight. Dumbo will border €14m and Captain Marvel a bit lower than €13m. Almodóvar's "Dolor y gloria" is not having the great run I had asumed. We will have to wait until prize season to know where it can land (it competes in Cannes).

The disappointment debate is absurd. It is making tons of money. No matters how you look at it. IMO, the "problem" to measure the EG's success is the opening. The OW figure (everywhere) is absurd, absolutely illogical, out of the world... you can name it as you want. And that opening figure has always been a bit cheat. The hype was gigantic and people wanted to avoid spoilers (it is curious that a very similar phenomenon with the same problem of spoilers like Game of Thrones is ending now too. I would have liked to see the last season once it had finished to see the 6 chapters together, but it is impossible. I am watching as they are released). Many people saw the film during the OW when they usually don't do it. I am an example of that. I detest to see films (specially so crowded) during the OW, but the risk to know what happened in the film was too high, so I saw it the first Friday. But I will not repeat at theaters, so since I watched IW after the OW, I have a little part of responsability (and many people of my enviroment in the same situation) of these "disappointing" legs. Maybe the problem here has been to asume the opening as something normal (myself did it) when it is not. With that wrong premise, every calculation we can do is worse than usual. But the fact it is that EG's run, specially the opening, is everything except usual.

Pikachu seems to be a very childish film. I guess it will have a better behaviour at weekends.