peludo

Well, I know people who detest it. Many people became really tired of it. And many still do not understand why Jack was not able to climb to the piece of wood Do not get me wrong. I like the film. I give it a B, maybe a B+, but I think that there are more than 1 billionaire film better than Titanic: Jurassic Park, The Dark Knight, Toy Story 3 or ROTK say hello. And I have Frozen, Skyfall, TDKR and SW7 at a similar level to Titanic. Of course, this is just my opinion and tastes...

I do not think it deserved so much earnings. IMO, it is a good film, but not THAT good film.

Sure. But to lose lots of theatres do not help.

And extreme competition within few days.

So, 1.033 billion without China. Adding maybe 130-140 from China, we have 1.163-1.173 billion. So, it still need over 1 billion DOM. My problem is that I see extremely hard to reach the billion DOM. I wish I am wrong, but I think this will barely pass the 2.1 billion mark.

Sadly, I do not think it will reach Titanic WW IMHO, it will need over 1 billion DOM to beat Titanic. Maybe 1.04-1.05 billion.

No, it would be exactly what many expected here long time ago.

This is what I understand. Anyway, let's wait. It is not probable, but I wish everyone was wrong and SW can break in China. It would be the best possible final for this already amazing WW run.

That is not too relevant. If I am not wrong, the number of theaters tracked for presales is increasing continuously, so the comparison is not exact.

January 1 - 7: 1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 2. Suicide Squad 3. Rogue One 4. The Revenant 5. Star Trek Beyond 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. Doctor Strange 8. Bourne 5 9. The Infiltrator 10. Zootopia

It seems that Hot Shots! is maybe the biggest franchise ever in Romania

Indeed. It is not the worst moment ever, but one of the worst for sure.

But do you have an all time admissions list? It would be great to see which films have been more attended.

I have updated the Spanish lists: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/4112-the-overseas-gross-archive-for-superhero-movies-country-by-country/?do=findComment&comment=1177287 There are 2 lists: first one adjusted by inflation with admissions and dollar adjusted figures and the second one has the real gross in euros. Changing the first list I have realized that the dollar figures have dropped a 33% since last update (December 2013). Just an example, the leader of the list, Superman, would had done today $34m. In December 2013, it would had done $51m.

If TFA follows the same pattern than ROTK from now until ROTK got the nominations (Tuesday 27th, 2003) we have this (let's remember that 3rd weekend of TFA has been $90m and ROTK was $28m, so 3.2 factor): 4-7 January: 24.64m ==> Already obsolete since TFA could reach 28-30 along this week taking into account Monday figure. 4th weekend: 45.4m 11-14 January: 13.66m 5th weekend (MLK 4-day): 39.8m 19-21 January: 6.37m 6th weekend: 21.71m Adding up those amounts to the current $742m we obtain $893.58m. So it would need another $107m from its 6th weekend, so a 5.9 multiplier from its 6th weekend to reach the billion. Multipliers since 6th weekend: Jurassic World (4.72), The Avengers (4.72), The Dark Knight (5.4), The Dark Knight Rises (4.71). Ok, it would need better legs than "usual" megablockbusters but with some help from awards session or some Disney boost in order to reach the milestone, I think it is reachable. And all of this asuming it follows the ROTK pre-nominations pattern. For the moment, TFA has beaten that pattern on first Monday. Maybe by the end of 6th weekend it is already well over $900m and "just" needs JW, TA or TDKR legs.

That list seems a bit random and not too accurate, as you well say. Probably most of the films of the list are in the top 10, maybe all of them, but figures and even ranking are not very good calculated. Talking about recent films, Titanic is, FOR SURE, bigger than Avatar. And Avatar does not adjust to 3 billion. Not even close. In fact, it adjusts to a lower amount than it really did because of exchange rates and 3D "doping". With standard tickets, it maybe adjusts to 2.3-2.4b range. And to know how much adjust older films it is quite harder.

Leggy market. ROTS was at $44m after 3rd weekend and finished with $82m. Let's wait.

Probably. I just prefer to be cautious. But yes, some international markets are quite more leggy than US (Japan is the best example), so the split should start to be high 40s/low 50s (always without taking into account China). I think this can reach 2.25b.

If we asume the same split 50/50 DOM/OS and another $250m from both US and OS, TFA will be barely over $2 billion. It needs about 150-160 from China to beat Titanic. And that is the prediction that experts are saying. It is going to be very close.

Possible, even likely, but not locked yet. Let's see how it drops from now... and let's see China.

First Monday after holidays: Avatar dropped a 53% relative to Sunday ($8.094m). It did $400m from this point. ROTK dropped a 68% relative to Sunday ($2.228m). It did another $85m from now. Avatar was a rarity, but following the same run than ROTK, TFA would make another $305m. Even considering that ROTK had a little boost because Oscars (nothing special), TFA still has a good margin to reach the billion, since it "just" needs another $250m, not 305. For the moment, ROTK dropped a 49.6% the equivalent next weekend, so making those $45m that some people are saying would be enough, for the moment, to keep the ROTK run and guarantee the billion.

Well, that fits with my data. Thank you

Being true, it is curious to say that a film has done nearly all the business when its last weekend can be over $90m... Last year just 7 films opened so high, SW7 included. And the 8th one was American Sniper which gave us a lot of fun. Everything is enormous around SW.

Who knows, but for the moment I prefer to be cautious... and listen to the experts in Chinese market. But like you, I wish it could go higher than predictions.

LOTR and Harry Potter were bigger grossers in China than Star Wars during their years of release. If we take into account this, that Hobbit did last year $120m, and if we asume that a LOTR/HP film should maybe make $150-$200m today in China (DH2 did 60 million in 2011), I think that the $150m prevision is quite good (and quite expected). Those fans who expect to beat F7 or TF should be ready for a disappointment. IMO, the $150m figure is quite logical all things considered.