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cory

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Everything posted by cory

  1. Needs about a 40% second weekend drop to hit $200m by Sunday... so that's not happening.
  2. Haha just checked and my original prediction for ASM was $310m. Oh well. But my TA prediction was even worse .
  3. This is in no danger of being a Superman Returns with the overseas numbers. Sequel is happening and it will almost certainly increase. Sony definitely knew it would be an uphill battle domestically, but they still announced a sequel.
  4. Possibly the saddest box office run of all time. Glad I saw it in theaters.
  5. I'm guessing the range will be 255-270. Spider-Man 2 and Transformers had ~2.0 6-day multipliers, and they didn't have theater-devouring competition in their 3rd weekends.
  6. Emma Stone: $883 million WW without Spider-Man over 5 years.Kirsten Dunst: $1.1 billion WW without Spider-Man over 18 years.Stone is way hotter than Dunst ever was.
  7. Sony should have changed the release date to the 11th if they really wanted to take advantage of that effect.
  8. That doesn't really happen. Hancock was only slightly softer in its 4th weekend than it would have been without the steeper drop from TDK in its 3rd. The effect will be negligible. Actually, Hancock (after the first week) is pretty much a dead-on parallel with what TASM will probably do.
  9. The expected drop from TDKR in the 3rd weekend will be fatal for legs. No getting around it. I don't even have it locked for 275m because of that.
  10. Superman Returns was around 30 mets (15 for its 6-day)TASM is doing almost identical business (15 mets for a $140m 6-day using Avengers for format share estimates).
  11. I'm guessing something like this (best case scenario):64 (140)32 (200)12 (230)8 (245)5 (255)3 (260)Total around 270.
  12. It would need to have the same 6-day multiplier as SM2 to hit 300. With TDKR cutting into its late legs, that's pretty much impossible.
  13. Great for TASM. I think I predicted 230, so it's exceeding my box office expectations. Sequel should be awesome even if this movie wasn't exactly amazing.
  14. 2003, 2007 and 2008 (Friday/Wednesday/Friday) were the only years with increases on the 4th in the past 10 years.
  15. Movie needs to get 75% after a certain amount of reviews to be certified fresh, if it drops below 70 after more reviews it loses it.
  16. Yeah, it's probably going to lose CF status. I loved Garfield and Stone in it too much to truly hate the movie though.
  17. 2012 R-Rated Openings 1. Ted: 6.6 mets 2. Magic Mike: 6.1 mets 3. Prometheus: 5.3 mets 4. Safe House: 5.1 mets 5. 21 Jump Street: 4.6 mets R-Rated Comedy Openings 1. The Hangover Part II: 10.7 mets 2. American Pie 2: 8.0 mets 3. Sex and the City: 7.9 mets 4. Scary Movie: 7.9 mets 5. Ted: 6.6 mets 6. The Hangover: 6.0 mets 7. American Wedding: 5.5 mets 8. Wedding Crashers: 5.3 mets 9. Jackass 3-D: 5.2 mets 10. Superbad: 4.8 mets
  18. Oh man, this is awesome. No way it's beating Inception's admissions though.
  19. That's exactly what I'm pointing out, it's impossible to get that kind of accuracy, so precision is the fairer way to go. 61.7M
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