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Shawn Robbins

Wednesday #s: RIDE (1.77), LONE (1.36), NUT (725k), HUSTLE (765k), JACK (1.03)

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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spizzer Box Office Gold

spizzer

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If you look at last year in the same weekend after the MLK holiday weekend, you will see that only oscar movies had under 30% drop. 

 

None of the films from last year match up with Frozen though.  There were no animated semi-4-quad Thanksgiving releases still running.  The closest thing would be WIR but that released earlier and had fizzled out by this point

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tawasal Global Phenomenon

tawasal

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None of the films from last year match up with Frozen though.  There were no animated semi-4-quad Thanksgiving releases still running.  The closest thing would be WIR but that released earlier and had fizzled out by this point

Still people shouldn't be dissapointed by this weekends drop when it's under 40% but over 30% or even 40 % to 45%. 

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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If you look at last year in the same weekend after the MLK holiday weekend, you will see that only oscar movies had under 30% drop. 

 

Frozen is down 10% week-to-week. Among holdovers only August: Osage County is beating it. There's no reason to think Frozen will buck its previous behavior at this point: Friday's going to see a jump close to 200%. Saturday will see a jump larger than 100%. And Sunday, even giving it a larger drop, will lose about 35%.

 

So, what's Thursday going to be? 650k? oS a 1.95 Friday, at least a 3.9 Sat, and a 2.5 Sun. That's 8.35 million: a 29% drop. And that's probably being pessimistic. Friday above 2 million won't be a shock. Saturday above 4 million is possible. Sunday above 3 million could happen, too.

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tawasal Global Phenomenon

tawasal

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Frozen is down 10% week-to-week. Among holdovers only August: Osage County is beating it. There's no reason to think Frozen will buck its previous behavior at this point: Friday's going to see a jump close to 200%. Saturday will see a jump larger than 100%. And Sunday, even giving it a larger drop, will lose about 35%.

 

So, what's Thursday going to be? 650k? oS a 1.95 Friday, at least a 3.9 Sat, and a 2.5 Sun. That's 8.35 million: a 29% drop. And that's probably being pessimistic. Friday above 2 million won't be a shock. Saturday above 4 million is possible. Sunday above 3 million could happen, too.

It must fall one day and that day can come very soon, I am not rooting for a downfall I love this movie, but movies from last year is making me careful on my predictions. 

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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It must fall one day and that day can come very soon, I am not rooting for a downfall I love this movie, but movies from last year is making me careful on my predictions. 

 

*blink*

 

Why must it?

 

Frozen's behavior isn't something that's mirrored anything in the past. You can't just look at other films and automatically assume it'll behave the same. Tangled is the most similar film you can find, and Frozen is doing better than it (both in absolute and relative terms). Ergo, there is no reason to think that Frozen is going to experience some imminent drop. It's going to decline over time, yes, but that should remain on the same, gradual path that it's had so far.

 

It's making far too much money for theaters to abandon it. (I think theaters might make 2-4 times as much from a Frozen sale as they will from a new release, so there is a LOT of incentive to keep it around.)

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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I fucking saw a fuckity fucking fuck movie fucking tonight and fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck, it fucking was so fucking fuck perfect. You fucking wanna fucking guess which fucking fuck movie was? :)

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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I fucking saw a fuckity fucking fuck movie fucking tonight and fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck, it fucking was so fucking fuck perfect. You fucking wanna fucking guess which fucking fuck movie was? :)

 

Stab in the dark here, but, gotta be The Nut Job.

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