Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[La Binoche]

Eye in the Sky quietly slaying. 

[JJ-8]

13 hours ago, DeeCee said:

It's very good.  It pretty much works as a sequel to both TWS and AoU.  It's only missing 2 of The Avengers but then there are all the add-ons.  I actually can't wait to see it again.

 

Also, there was a mid credit scene and there will be an after credits scene.

 

The first one did make over $27m here (3rd  largest market after Domestic and the UK) plus with a very large Greek community there's a history of popular comedies here based around Greeks in Australia.  

 

 

Also, I just noticed that from Thursday BvS is gone from both Wollongong and Shellharbour Greater Union.

 

Awesome. So can't wait. 

 

Also chermside is down to 3 sessions a day from Thursday.  Can't say I'm surprised given its performance. 

[DeeCee]

Do have a list of Thursday numbers?

[DeeCee]

Opening Day Thursday to 4 day weekend to Domestic 3 day.  

 

$9.42m - TFA - $27.254 - 2.89 - USD247.966m - 9.1

$3.40m - BvS - $13.156m - 3.87 - USD166.0m - 12.6

$3.30m - FF7 - $14.620m - 4.43 - USD147.187m - 10.1

$3.10m - Deadpool - $14.943m - 4.82 - USD132.434m - 8.9

$1.10m - Ant-Man - $5.346m - 4.86 - USD57.225m - 10.7 

$?.??m - TWS - $6.058m - ??? - USD95.023m - 15.7

 

The higher the final multiplier is the better it performed Domestic relative to its Australian opening.  So, Deadpool performed much better in Australia relative to the Domestic market.

 

In about 24 hours we should have the opening day in Australia.  Using the opening day in Australia we can multiply it by 4.5 to estimate the opening weekend here.  If we multiply the 4 day opening in Australia by 10 the should give us the low point for Domestic.  

 

e.g. If Thursday opening in Australia is AUD3.5m

 

AUD3.5m x 4.5 = AUD15.75 x 10 = USD157.5m

 

(Deadpool is impacted by President's Day.  Also, using The Avengers, AoU or IM3 is problematic because they coincided with ANZAC Day)

Edited April 27, 2016 by DeeCee

[RthDeadWov]

early days yet but CACW could be looking OD 3-4m range which is like 3-4 times TWS OD and  @ 3m would put it above likes of AOU, DP, JW, closer to 4m above BVS, TDKR, IM3

[DeeCee]

Let's say AUD3.7m x 4.5 = AUD16.65m OW in Australia.  Let's say it performs slightly better Domestic.

 

AUD16.65m x 11 = USD183.15m OW

 

I'm calling USD185m as locked.

 

[JJ-8]

If that holds fantastic start when u consider school is in...

 

if the OD pushes towards 4m then 16m + is on the cards. Dont forget business will be strongest sat / sun. 

[JJ-8]

1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

Let's say AUD3.7m x 4.5 = AUD16.65m OW in Australia.  Let's say it performs slightly better Domestic.

 

AUD16.65m x 11 = USD183.15m OW

 

I'm calling USD185m as locked.

 

 

I would say the OW would above 17m in that scenario. I'm also thinking the US OW would be above 200m. But yes u are correct. 185m is locked in that case. 

[DeeCee]

I'm just low-balling it.  Anything over $16m here suggests USD200m is in play.

[lab276]

Most Popular Films For Period Week, April 21 - 27, 2016 WIR = Weeks In Release
No	WIR	Title	$	%	Total $
1	2	THE JUNGLE BOOK (PG), WALT DISNEY [557/ $14,832]	8,261,268	-11%	22,059,376
2	1	EDDIE THE EAGLE (PG), FOX [376/ $9,971]	3,748,961	N/A	4,283,664
3	6	ZOOTOPIA (PG), WALT DISNEY [360/ $6,541]	2,354,679	-29%	26,977,932
4	2	THE BOSS (MA15+), UNIVERSAL [295/ $7,203]	2,124,815	-28%	5,093,858
5	2	DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT (M), ENTERTAINMENT ONE [250/ $7,867]	1,966,850	-31%	5,003,376
6	5	KUNG FU PANDA 3 (PG), FOX/DREAMWORKS [318/ $3,519]	1,118,920	-30%	13,036,031
7	3	THE HUNTSMAN WINTER`S WAR (M), UNIVERSAL [271/ $3,801]	1,029,979	-36%	6,481,798
8	5	MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2 (PG), UNIVERSAL [237/ $3,628]	859,774	-33%	15,560,909
9	5	BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE (M), WARNER BROS [199/ $4,051]	806,162	-44%	29,505,483
10	5	EYE IN THE SKY (M), ENTERTAINMENT ONE [99/ $4,851]	480,280	33%	2,222,386
11	1	MIDNIGHT SPECIAL (M), WARNER BROS [20/ $7,001]	140,026	N/A	140,026
12	3	RAMS (M), PALACE [19/ $6,913]	131,348	-6%	616,436
13	4	SHERPA (M), TRANSMISSION [34/ $3,547]	120,597	-27%	957,966
14	1	MARGUERITE (M), TRANSMISSION [27/ $4,315]	116,508	N/A	133,144
15	2	FAN (M), MINDBLOWING FILMS [26/ $4,299]	111,779	-72%	514,304
16	8	THE LADY IN THE VAN (M), SONY PICTURES [70/ $1,404]	98,311	-38%	9,439,376
17	6	THE DAUGHTER (M), ROADSHOW [48/ $1,540]	73,919	-30%	1,648,206
18	6	LONDON HAS FALLEN (MA15+), ROADSHOW [31/ $2,323]	72,011	-44%	5,849,061
19	PR	THE MAN WHO KNEW INFINITY (PG), ICON [34/ $2,010]	68,349	N/A	130,388
20	1	PAWNO (MA15+), MINDBLOWING FILMS [24/ $2,799]	67,168	N/A	69,746

[DeeCee]

@RthDid it get $3.7-4.0m?  Higher?

[RthDeadWov]

On 4/28/2016 at 11:37 AM, Rth said:

early days yet but CACW could be looking OD 3-4m range which is like 3-4 times TWS OD and  @ 3m would put it above likes of AOU, DP, JW, closer to 4m above BVS, TDKR, IM3

quick note

looking come in about 3.050m

[Sam]

4 minutes ago, Rth said:

quick note

looking come in about 3.050m

 

Thanks Rth!

 

A bit disappointed it came in toward the low end. But still a good number. 

[DeeCee]

54 minutes ago, Rth said:

quick note

looking come in about 3.050m

Thank you.

 

That suggests a weekend of AUD13.8-14.5m.  Even at the high end it would really have to perform a lot better then in Australia to hit USD200m Domestic.  

[jse]

14 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Thank you.

 

That suggests a weekend of AUD13.8-14.5m.  Even at the high end it would really have to perform a lot better then in Australia to hit USD200m Domestic.  

 

From your 16M Oz OW to 200M NA OW extrapolation, it seems that 14.5M high-end would put it right around my prediction of 181M, with the low end putting it right under IM3

[JJ-8]

1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

Thank you.

 

That suggests a weekend of AUD13.8-14.5m.  Even at the high end it would really have to perform a lot better then in Australia to hit USD200m Domestic.  

 

Accept that it did 3m without wed previews. Something that AOU didn't match and still made 15.7m for the weekend. Yes Anzac Day fell during the weekend.

 

still even with 3m with school in, I'm thinking 15m +. Sat/sun will easily be its biggest days. 

[JJ-8]

Oh my thinking is :

 

thurs 3.05m

fri 3.6m

sat 4.8m

sun 4.7m

weekend = 16.1m

 

am I too optimistic?

 

hell how about

3.05m + 3.2m + 4.5m + 4.3m = 15m 

[DeeCee]

I think with $3.05m the absolute most it will do is $15m.  That would be similar to Deadpool and if I recall correctly Deadpool had a massive Sunday that coincided with Valentines Day. 

 

If my Australia:Domestic multiplier theory holds then a $15m OW in Australia rules out USD200m OW Domestic. 

 

We shall see. 

[eXtacy]

1 hour ago, jse said:

 

From your 16M Oz OW to 200M NA OW extrapolation, it seems that 14.5M high-end would put it right around my prediction of 181M, with the low end putting it right under IM3

 

Another way of looking at it is 3x the Winter Soldier opening day which would be 37x3=111m OD in domestic

 

 

Edited April 29, 2016 by eXtacy

[Finnick]

1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

I think with $3.05m the absolute most it will do is $15m.  That would be similar to Deadpool and if I recall correctly Deadpool had a massive Sunday that coincided with Valentines Day. 

 

If my Australia:Domestic multiplier theory holds then a $15m OW in Australia rules out USD200m OW Domestic. 

 

We shall see. 

Is there any chance it can big increase and the weekend higher?