ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, Olive said:

IW OD was holiday ?

Yes

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/5/2019 at 5:03 PM, fabiopazzo2 said:

Record OD:

Quo Vado? €7.3m

DH2 €3.1m

Infinity War €2.9m

 

Avengers IW (2018)

OW:

Wednesday: € 2.9M

Thursday: € 1M

Friday: € 1.2M

Saturday: € 1.7M

Sunday: € 2.0M

So can we expect €3.5mn or may be €4mn OD and €7mn FSS, and €12mn 5 days.

 

Edit: Read last few pages, so 3 2 2 3 3 : 13 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So can we expect €3.5mn or may be €4mn OD and €7mn FSS, and €12mn 5 days.

Yep. I'm really ""disappointed"" if not reach €3M. 

€3,5 is a strong possibilities, 4M? difficult but not impossible.

 

[Omni]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

Edit: Read last few pages, so 3 2 2 3 3 : 13

It can't remain flat on Friday (26th) when the 25th is a nation holiday.

I'd say: 3/3.5/1.1/2.0/2.0. 11.6M 5-day opening. 

[fabiopazzo2]

Inter-Juve on Saturday... again. Will be affect Endgame? Probably less than one year ago 

[Omni]

Juventus has basically won the Championship already, I doubt the effect will be considerable.

 

18/04/19 (Thursday)

 

1	AFTER	11/04/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 280.687	43.652
2	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 121.883	18.370
3	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 108.954	18.358
4	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 64.396	10.715
5	SHAZAM!	03/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 46.789	7.490
6	HELLBOY	11/04/2019	GBR	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 44.560	7.159
7	IL CAMPIONE	18/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 42.934	6.976
8	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 25.764	4.658
9	A UN METRO DA TE (FIVE FEET APART)	21/03/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 20.013	3.008
10	CAFARNAO - CAOS E MIRACOLI (CAPHARNAUM)	11/04/2019	LBN	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 16.588	2.749

 

After holds off the new entries, but this time with an unspectacular hold (>40% drop).

Very good for La Llorona, which drops less than 15% from OD. Italian film Il Campione failed and Ma Cosa ci Dice il Cervello opened with dull numbers - Cortellesi or not, the premise was just not interesting at all, and the marketing has also been pretty weak.

The Boy who Would Be King didn't even manage the top 10...

[Omni]

19/04/19 (Friday)

 

1	AFTER	11/04/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 238.363	35.598
2	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 143.264	23.167
3	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 118.353	17.313
4	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 70.540	11.455
5	SHAZAM!	03/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 52.640	7.927
6	HELLBOY	11/04/2019	GBR	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 50.119	7.494
7	IL CAMPIONE	18/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 48.266	7.695
8	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 29.364	5.100
9	CAFARNAO - CAOS E MIRACOLI (CAPHARNAUM)	11/04/2019	LBN	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 23.035	3.679
10	A UN METRO DA TE (FIVE FEET APART)	21/03/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 20.312	2.923

 

First bad day for After, which dropped from Thursday on an overall abysmal Friday. Only Ma Cosa ci Dice il Cervello managed a decent jump, and we're still talking about a measly +30% from Thu. Easter has given a little help to weekdays so far, but it looks like it's destroying movies on the weekend. Bah.

[fabiopazzo2]

 I looked all the cinemas in my area... never seen anything like this. 

+3M on OD is 🔒 

Edited April 21, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[Omni]

20/04/19 (Saturday)

 

1	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 300.126	44.964
2	AFTER	11/04/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 280.851	38.927
3	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 178.927	24.353
4	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 107.255	15.887
5	SHAZAM!	03/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 81.020	11.181
6	HELLBOY	11/04/2019	GBR	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 78.229	10.963
7	IL CAMPIONE	18/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 75.946	11.332
8	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 50.318	7.985
9	CAFARNAO - CAOS E MIRACOLI (CAPHARNAUM)	11/04/2019	LBN	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 43.133	6.515
10	A SPASSO CON WILLY (TERRA WILLY - PLANETE INCONNUE)	18/04/2019	FRA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 40.752	6.490

 

Abysmal. Let's just wait for the 24th.

[Omni]

6 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 I looked all the cinemas in my area... never seen anything like this. 

+3M on OD is 🔒 

Yeah, it's really insane. Some afternoon and evening showings are basically sold out already...and in a country where presales are usually ignored.

 

But the key for EG's success won't be its OD. IW's 2M+ gain over Ultron basically came from the mere OD (2.95 vs 1.0), meaning a) in the other days it just performed on par with Ultron; b) there's room to grow, even in an out-of-shape market like Italy.

[fabiopazzo2]

6 hours ago, Omni said:

Yeah, it's really insane. Some afternoon and evening showings are basically sold out already...and in a country where presales are usually ignored.

 

But the key for EG's success won't be its OD. IW's 2M+ gain over Ultron basically came from the mere OD (2.95 vs 1.0), meaning a) in the other days it just performed on par with Ultron; b) there's room to grow, even in an out-of-shape market like Italy.

W: 3M(the floor)

T: 2M

F: 1.6M

S: 2M (Inter-Juve could hurt EG??!) 

S: 2.4M

 

OW: € 11M

 

but probably we will have something like that

 

W: 3,5M

T: 2,5M

F: 1.4M

S: 1.8M

S: 1.9/2.1M

 

OW: 11.1/11.3M

Edited April 21, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

W: 3M(the floor)

T: 2M

F: 1.6M

S: 2M (Inter-Juve could hurt EG??!) 

S: 2.4M

 

OW: € 11M

 

but probably we will have something like that

 

W: 3,5M

T: 2,5M

F: 1.4M

S: 1.8M

S: 1.9/2.1M

 

OW: 11.1/11.3M

Is this in Euro's? 

If so coudl this get €12m?

[fabiopazzo2]

42 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Is this in Euro's? 

If so coudl this get €12m?

Yes is possible 👍🏻

[Omni]

Weather alone could make it struggle to 10M or go as high as 13/14. It looks like there will be some rain during the week, but it's uncertain how much and on what days. We need clouds and drizzle on the 25th, 27th and 28th. Possibly on May 1st too

[fabiopazzo2]

27 minutes ago, Omni said:

Weather alone could make it struggle to 10M or go as high as 13/14. It looks like there will be some rain during the week, but it's uncertain how much and on what days. We need clouds and drizzle on the 25th, 27th and 28th. Possibly on May 1st too

What do you think about Juve-Inter on Saturday night?! 

[Omni]

Juventus has won the Championship this weekend, the match won't be an event at all. It should cost EG about a 5%, which it should recover on Sunday.

[Omni]

21/04/19 (Sunday)

 

1	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 559.741	82.216
2	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 181.314	24.298
3	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 162.261	23.423
4	AFTER	11/04/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 155.447	21.678
5	IL CAMPIONE	18/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 128.585	18.564
6	SHAZAM!	03/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 94.040	12.796
7	HELLBOY	11/04/2019	GBR	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 86.377	11.951
8	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 69.875	10.687
9	CAFARNAO - CAOS E MIRACOLI (CAPHARNAUM)	11/04/2019	LBN	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 59.697	8.927
10	A SPASSO CON WILLY (TERRA WILLY - PLANETE INCONNUE)	18/04/2019	FRA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 49.494	7.551

 

A disaster of epic proportions. Weekend analysis later, but it looks like no movie dropped under 60%. Still, the weekend is once again up from the same weekend last year.

Local comedy Ma Cosa Ci Dice il Cervello went from #3 on Thursday to making more than #2, 3 and 4 combined on Sunday. Insane.

 

Let's hope for some recovery today.

[pepsa]

17 minutes ago, Omni said:

A disaster of epic proportions. Weekend analysis later, but it looks like no movie dropped under 60%. Still, the weekend is once again up from the same weekend last year.

Local comedy Ma Cosa Ci Dice il Cervello went from #3 on Thursday to making more than #2, 3 and 4 combined on Sunday. Insane.

 

Let's hope for some recovery today.

When every movies drop 60% + from last weekend but year to year your still up...

This must be Europe...

[Omni]

WEEKEND ACTUALS 18-21 APRIL

- all in million € -

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Ma Cosa Ci Dice il Cervello (It)	1.12	NEW	1.12	3.80
2	After	0.97	-71%	5.20	6.60
3	The Curse of La Llorona	0.61	NEW	0.75	1.60
4	Dumbo	0.41	-70%	9.99	10.70
5	Il Campione (It)	0.30	NEW	0.30	0.70
6	Shazam!	0.28	-66%	3.40	3.70
7	Hellboy	0.26	-66%	1.20	1.50
8	Wonder Park	0.18	-75%	0.99	1.30
9	Capharnaum (Lib)	0.14	-50%	0.49	0.70
10	Terra Willy - Planète Inconnue (Fr)	0.13	NEW	0.13	0.30

 

Da f**k! Brutal drops all around. Capharnaum is the only one that managed a decorous hold, but it's also the kind of movie that is supposed to drop sub-30% on its 2nd weekend. Despite the failure of the openers and the extreme weakness of the holdovers...

...the weekend was up 33.3% from the same weekend last year and 2019 is now losing to 2018 by "just" 6.15%.

 

Reasons of the anemic grosses should be found, I guess, mainly in the warm weekend, which made Easter a way for people to go around or stay at home with their family. I'm therefore giving the holdovers slightly better holds than I'd normally do, as between today's holiday and some more days of school of (and possibly of rain) there is room for a small recovery. 

I also looked back at 2018 to see how in hell that 3rd weekend of April could be worse than this pathetic bunch of Easter dailies...and yes, when your first grosser is Escobar at sub-1M and a sub-100K gross (Sherlock Gnome's 2nd weekend) is enough to make it into the top 10, it's very hard not to grow.

 

Ma Cosa Ci Dice il Cervello did not do well, but on normal condition it would have probably been a solid hit. Considering the subdued opening and the fact that it's common for the lovers of local comedies not to have much interest in the MCU/DC movies, I'm giving it a multiplier quite higher than 3x.

 

After collapsed, but its drop is bad only in absolute terms. In relative terms, it just dropped in line with the other holdovers. It should get some money back this week, but likely not enough to get to 7 millions.

 

Despite the awful drop, Dumbo is slightly above Jungle Book, which dropped even harder (-73%, 400K, 9.85 total). Still, it needed something more to beat the Ralph/Aquaman duo. Not like it matters much actually, as Endgame will beat all of these not later than next Monday.

 

La Llorona won't make much more than Us after all, and Shazam!/Hellboy are going to be toasted the day after tomorrow.

 

 

This weekend: Endgame!

IW got close to 3M (3rd best OD of all time behind Quo Vado and HP7/2) on the 25th (holiday). Wednesday is a working day, so a good bunch will just wait for the day after...that said it's still a holiday for kids and teens, as schools are closed (universities aren't, though). Over 3M would be really great!

 

Screw the other releases...

Edited April 22, 2019 by Omni

[Omni]

And recovery was...

 

22/04/19 (Monday)

 

1	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 646.301	94.787
2	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 247.645	36.412
3	AFTER	11/04/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 202.305	27.898
4	LA LLORONA - LE LACRIME DEL MALE (THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA)	17/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 190.522	25.448
5	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 173.841	26.563
6	IL CAMPIONE	18/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 139.102	20.189
7	A SPASSO CON WILLY (TERRA WILLY - PLANETE INCONNUE)	18/04/2019	FRA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 131.939	20.183
8	SHAZAM!	03/04/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 118.358	16.283
9	HELLBOY	11/04/2019	GBR	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 76.040	10.430
10	CAFARNAO - CAOS E MIRACOLI (CAPHARNAUM)	11/04/2019	LBN	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 74.583	11.150

 

Strong Monday with every movie (except Hellboy, lol) increasing from Sunday. Wonder Park and Terra Willy made on one day what they did on the entire 4-day weekend. Dumbo now ahead of the 10M milestone, and ahead of Captain Marvel, too.