ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[juni78ukr]

Very poor writing indeed. And no yearly numbers or how much exactly box office dropped from last year.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Tuesday Top 5:

 

1- The Hobbit BOFA, €0.38m ($0.46m)

2- Big Hero 6, €0.32m ($0.39m)

3- Il Ricco, il Povero e il Maggiordomo, €0.26m ($0.32m)

4- Gone Girl, €0.22m ($0.27m)

5- Paddington, €0.19m ($0.23m)

 

 

Cumulatives as of yesterday: 

The Hobbit $13.60m 
Il Ricco, il Povero e il Maggiordomo $12.5m
Big Hero 6, around $6.9m

Gone Girl, $5.4m 

Paddington, $2.9m

[Filmovie]

It's time for comparisions:

 

HOBBIT

 

After the 26^th

 

1. AUJ 10,8 M EU

2. DOS 8,9 M EU

3. BOFA 8,3 M EU

 

After the 30^th (and all three movies had 2 weekdays and a Sat/Sun between 26^th and 30^th)

 

1. AUJ 13,4 M EU

2. BOFA 11,2

3. DOS 11,0 M EU

 

So, in the last 4 days, BOFA has marginally reduced the gap between it and AUJ (from 2,5 M to 2,2 M ) and has surpassed DOS (from -0,5M TO +0,2M).

 

TOTALS:

 

1. AUJ 16,5 M EU

2. DOS 12,8 M EU

 

The gap between these 2 movies became bigger starting with the 1^st of January: DOS was literally destroyed by the competition. Will it happen to BOFA? It will likely follow a pattern between DOS and AUJ.

 

I expect it to close in the 13,5-14 M EU range.

 

IL RICCO IL POVERO E IL MAGGIORDOMO

 

After the 30^th

1. Their last movie 12,3 M EU

2. Il ricco il povero e il maggiordomo 10,3 M EU

 

However it should be noted that “their last movie” had the last weekdays much stronger (0,65-0,8 M EU) vs (0,31 – 0,26 M ). So the gap is rapidly increasing. Moreover in 2011 they had still two Holiday's weekend left (31-2 Jan and 7-9 Jan) while this Year we have only one (2-4 Jan) and after the 6^th everyone is back in school/work.

Plus, Il ricco il povero e il maggiordomo opened a weekend earlier.

 

Their movies usually had long legs but this year they will have competition sooner (1^st Jan instead of 4^th Jan)

 

Their last movie closed at +21M EU. This should close at 13-14 M EU.

 

BIG HERO 6

 

After the 30^th

 

1. Frozen 11,2 M EU

2. Big Hero 6 5,6 M EU

3. WIR 3,9 M EU

 

TOTAL

 

1. Frozen 19,4 M EU

2. WIR 6,7 M EU

 

Frozen made 57% of its total before the 30^th , WIR made 58%. Do the Math and find out that BH will close at +9,5M EU. 10 M EU are possible.

 

Gone girl will make at least 6,5M EU (+7M EU are possible)

 

 

 

This year the BOX OFFICE champion released in December will have the lowest total since at least 2000. Ridicolous. And nor The Hobbit neither other movies will make 20M $ this year (you can't blame only the exchange rate)

 

 

 

On the 1^st of January 4 important movies arrive in the market:

• Si accettano miracoli: the second movie of an Italian comedian. In the debut it made +14M EU. At least a similar number is expected

• American Sniper: Eastwood is very strong here (Gran Torino 9 M EU, Hereafter 7,8 M EU, Changeling 5,2 M EU, Invictus 6,3 M EU). This will go in the 7-9 M EU range for sure

• Big Eyes: Burton has a loyal fanbase here. Considering that in the date, a movie like The Butler, made +5M EU, I wouldn't be surprised if it has a similar result

• The Imitation Game: it more difficult to compare to something. It could make 3-5 M EU

 

All datas in euros

Edited December 31, 2014 by Filmovie

[Dingdong123]

^great analysis. I really hope Big Hero 6 can cross the $10M mark.

[Filmovie]

^great analysis. I really hope Big Hero 6 can cross the $10M mark.

You don't have to hope. 10M$ are locked, 10M € are possible. All my datas above were in €

[Filmovie]

Datas of the 1st of January (Holiday): all datas in euros

 

1. Si accettano miracoli 2,22 M EU: last year an Italian comedy opened on the same day and made 1,5M EU in OD, 6,7 in opening Week and 12,3M EU in total. If it follows a similar pattern it could match +18 M EU. Obviously its too soon to tell where it will finish its run but it is certainly a very good start. 12 M EU at very least are locked, but it could also go higher (15-18-20 M EU). I didn't read any reviews so I don't know what WOM could it have.

 

2. American Sniper 1,32 M EU: that's an amazing start. Above any possible immagination. After the 6th it could already be at 6 M EU and, if so, it will undoubtely cross 10 M EU (actually could go as high as 12 M EU). I knew this would have been a success. 

 

3. Il ricco il povero e il maggiordomo: 0,53 M EU ( total 11,36 M EU ). Still on track for 13-14 M EU

 

4. Big hero 6: 0,50 M EU ( tot 6,49 M EU ) Last year Frozen did 1,00 M (tot up to date 12,7 M EU), two years ago WIR did 0,45 (tot up to date 4,6 M EU).That's not a very good result, considering it was holiday and the comparable titles. 10 M EU return to be impossible and 9 M EU don't look certain anymore (maybe it has lost too many screens). 10 M $ remain locked.

 

5. The Imitation Game: 0,41 M EU.  LY, on the same day, The Butler and American Hustle made 0,27 and 0,37 respectively and the both winded up with 5M EU. A similar fate is expected.

 

6. GG 0,40 M EU

 

7. Hobbit 0,35 M EU (tot 11,7 M EU). After the 1st AUJ was at 14,2 (gap has increased), DOS at 11,4 M EU. It will close under 14 M EU for sure

 

8. Paddington 0,31M EU

 

9. Big Eyes 0,29 M EU: I actually tought that this OD and the one of TIM could have been switched. So it's a bit underwhelming. But look at The Butler, same OD and 5 M EU in total. It actually could be less frontloaded than TIM.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Filmovie

[edroger3]

Datas of the 1st of January (Holiday): all datas in euros

 

1. Si accettano miracoli 2,22 M EU: last year an Italian comedy opened on the same day and made 1,5M EU in OD, 6,7 in opening Week and 12,3M EU in total. If it follows a similar pattern it could match +18 M EU. Obviously its too soon to tell where it will finish its run but it is certainly a very good start. 12 M EU at very least are locked, but it could also go higher (15-18-20 M EU). I didn't read any reviews so I don't know what WOM could it have.

 

2. American Sniper 1,32 M EU: that's an amazing start. Above any possible immagination. After the 6th it could already be at 6 M EU and, if so, it will undoubtely cross 10 M EU (actually could go as high as 12 M EU). I knew this would have been a success. 

 

3. Il ricco il povero e il maggiordomo: 0,53 M EU ( total 11,36 M EU ). Still on track for 13-14 M EU

 

4. Big hero 6: 0,50 M EU ( tot 6,49 M EU ) Last year Frozen did 1,00 M (tot up to date 12,7 M EU), two years ago WIR did 0,45 (tot up to date 4,6 M EU).That's not a very good result, considering it was holiday and the comparable titles. 10 M EU return to be impossible and 9 M EU don't look certain anymore (maybe it has lost too many screens). 10 M $ remain locked.

 

5. The Imitation Game: 0,41 M EU.  LY, on the same day, The Butler and American Hustle made 0,27 and 0,37 respectively and the both winded up with 5M EU. A similar fate is expected.

 

6. GG 0,40 M EU

 

7. Hobbit 0,35 M EU (tot 11,7 M EU). After the 1st AUJ was at 14,2 (gap has increased), DOS at 11,4 M EU. It will close under 14 M EU for sure

 

8. Paddington 0,31M EU

 

9. Big Eyes 0,29 M EU: I actually tought that this OD and the one of TIM could have been switched. So it's a bit underwhelming. But look at The Butler, same OD and 5 M EU in total. It actually could be less frontloaded than TIM.

Italian boxoffice explodes on first day of new year, thanks to two new releases that opens better than expected. "Miracles are accepted", the last (of a long line) local comedy/fantasy, grossed over 2M euros in a day (rare thing here) and seems to be able to finally break the 20M$ bar. Well known leading actors (one of those is also the director) that co-starred in many successiful movies (also the one that voiced the italian version of Frozen's Elsa) and interesting plot are its pros. Pulled by a very exciting trailer (I saw it before The Hobbit and it was the better moment of the show....), American Sniper opens very well and could have great legs. In the dark side The Hobbit's run is coming to be an end, while that of Big Hero 6 really is never started.

[Filmovie]

, while that of Big Hero 6 really is never started.

 

Honestly it was quite predictable that BH6 would have paled by comparision . Frozen was a phenomenon in all over the world. After BH's start in US and in the first OS's countries it was pretty clear that BH6 was no Elsa.

 

I've read that attendance in 2014 was down a tremendous 7% from last year 

[edroger3]

Honestly it was quite predictable that BH6 would have paled by comparision . Frozen was a phenomenon in all over the world. After BH's start in US and in the first OS's countries it was pretty clear that BH6 was no Elsa.

 

I've read that attendance in 2014 was down a tremendous 7% from last year 

Regarding BH6, I'm talking about WoM. Some analysts in USA called it "quietest blockbuster ever", the same it is what happened here, also in term of merchandising.

 

Concerning the fall on tickets sold, I think the main problem in 2014 is the weakness of movies released and sometimes the bad programmation of the release date (few movies in summer, hard competition in fall and winter). Superhero, animated and many local title do worse than expected, while there have been a few positive surprises. I'm sure this will not happen in 2015.

[Filmovie]

Regarding BH6, I'm talking about WoM. Some analysts in USA called it "quietest blockbuster ever", the same it is what happened here, also in term of merchandising.

 

Those are only some critics' opinion, not the truth, not the general opinion. They are simply used in the marketing, recently very often. Nothing else.

 

And, talking on a marketing prospective those "catchy phrases"  have lost their meaning. Only this year I think I saw 30 movies with a "Spot "review": "best movie of the year", "best Summer Blockbuster" "best superhero movie of all time" "one of the best performance of all time" "one of the funniest movie ever made" "best horror of modern times". And I don't think someone still believes that those phrases are actually true.

 

So they simply weren't interested in seeing it at the cinema (and a spot "review" didn't change their mind). 

[edroger3]

Those are only some critics' opinion, not the truth, not the general opinion. They are simply used in the marketing, recently very often. Nothing else.

 

And, talking on a marketing prospective those "catchy phrases"  have lost their meaning. Only this year I think I saw 30 movies with a "Spot "review": "best movie of the year", "best Summer Blockbuster" "best superhero movie of all time" "one of the best performance of all time" "one of the funniest movie ever made" "best horror of modern times". And I don't think someone still believes that those phrases are actually true.

 

So they simply weren't interested in seeing it at the cinema (and a spot "review" didn't change their mind). 

Unfortunately in this case, math is not an opinion. And i speak about analysts, not marketing guys.

Try this google search: news for past 24 hours about "disney big hero 6" and "disney frozen". Anna&Elsa always have 3-4 more times pages of results than Hiro&Baymax. 

[Filmovie]

Unfortunately in this case, math is not an opinion. And i speak about analysts, not marketing guys.

 

 

What do you refer to when you speak about analysts? Analysts of what? What are they supposed to do?

 

Try this google search: news for past 24 hours about "disney big hero 6" and "disney frozen". Anna&Elsa always have 3-4 more times pages of results than Hiro&Baymax. 

 

So? What's the point? That simply means that BH6 had not that much cultural impact

[edroger3]

What do you refer to when you speak about analysts? Analysts of what? What are they supposed to do?

 

For example Scott Mendelson, film industry analyst for Forbes (i think a seriuos source)

[Plain Old Tele]

For example Scott Mendelson, film industry analyst for Forbes (i think a seriuos source)

Mendelson is more of a critic who occasionally writes pieces about the box-office than a serious analyst.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Local movie Si Accettano Miracoli and American Sniper did over €1m again yesterday.

Cumulatives as of yesterday: 

The Hobbit $14.5m 

Il Ricco, il Povero e il Maggiordomo $14m

Big Hero 6, around $8.2m

[Filmovie]

Local movie Si Accettano Miracoli and American Sniper did over €1m again yesterday.

 

Good for "Si accettano miracoli", really amazing for Eastwood. 

[edroger3]

Btw I like Big Hero 6 as a movie, technically speaking it's perhaps a better movie than Frozen (even if it lose in music, plot and characters).
However, If we speaking about cultural impact and fame, Frozen is the "hero" and BH6 is the "zero". Letting go the "analysts", I work in a computer/electronics/videogame/home video/music shop and everyday I speak with many people about entertainment facts and products. If I tell "Frozen" usually the answer is "Oh, Yes!", for BH6 it is "What?"

 

Only for statistics Frozen is still the most selled in Home Video market, here, in its 38th week in release.

 

http://www.univideo.org

[Filmovie]

Final official datas:

 

2013: 97,288 M admissions; 0,618 B Euros

2014: 91,302 M admissions (-6,1%); 0,573 B Euros (-7,1%)

 

The main difference is the italian Phenomenon Zalone. In fact, if you subtract 8 M admissions and 52 M Euros you'll see this:

 

2013: 89,2 M admissions; 0,566 B Euros.

 

So, if there had been an another phenomenon (like Zalone), 2014 would have been basically on par with 2013. It's like comparing Dec 2009-Jan 2010  (Avatar) to Dec 2010- Jan 2011 ( no Avatar)

 

Obviously there's nothing to be happy.

 

So, is the cinema in recession? Yes. Is this situation worse than last year? IMHO, no.

 

Next Zalone's movie will be released on 3rd Dicember 2015.

 

 

Predictions:

 

After the 6th: Si accettano miracoli 8,5 M EU, American Sniper 5,5 M EU

           

[Filmovie]

Yesterday:

 

1. Si accettano miracoli 1,66 M EU - tot 5,12 M EU

2. American Sniper 1,39 M EU - tot 3,84 M EU

3. TIM 0,44 M EU - tot 1,16 M EU

4. BH6 0,35 M EU - tot  7,16 M EU

5. GG 0,33 M EU - tot  5.65 M EU

6. Il ricco, il povero e il maggiordomo 0,33 M EU - tot 11,96 M EU

7. Big Eyes 0,29 M EU - tot  0,79 M EU

8. Hobbit 0,27 M EU - tot 12,31 M EU

 

 

Best OW since Oct 2012 (since when movies open on Thur)

 

1. Sole a Catinelle 18,61 mln

2. Breaking Dawn – Parte 2 8.28 mln

3. Iron Man 3 6.94 mln

4. Si accettano miracoli 6,7-6,8 (projected)

5. Hangover 3 6.12 mln

6. Fast anf furious 6 5.72 mln

7. Skyfall 5.49 mln

8. Despicable me 2 5.16 mln

9. American Sniper 5,1-5,2 (projected)

10. Maleficient 4,31 mln

11. Hunger Games – Mockyngjay p. 1 4,28 mln

12. Lo Hobbit AUJ 4.28 mln

13. Sotto una buona stella 4,25 mln

14. Il principe abusivo 4.20 mln

15. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 3,96 mln

16. Un boss in Salotto 3,94 mln

17. The Wolf of Wall Street 3,81 mln

18. Hunger Games : Catching Fire 3,71 mln

19. Lo Hobbit BOFA 3,67 mln

20. Thor 2: The Dark World 3.66 mln

21. Lo Hobbit DOS 3,62 mln

22. Django Unchained 3.45 mln

23. I Croods 3.00 mln

24. OZ 2.89 mln

25. Il grande Gatsby 2.89 mln

26. Interstellar 2,89 mln

27. Transformers 4 2,86 mln

28. Noah 2,67 mln

29. Captain America – The winter soldier 2,62 mln

30. Il peggior Natale della mia vita 2.59 mln

31. Godzilla 2,59 mln

32. Lucy 2.56 mln

 

 

Ok, this is almost a Holiday Weekend but they are certainly 2 fantastic starts.

[edroger3]

The Hobbit and RP&M are falling asleep, so now is officially certain that none of the 2014 release will reach 15m euros and Maleficent will win the year.

Edited January 4, 2015 by edroger