Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Neo]

This isn't a Harry Potter or Twilight, its not that kind of fanboy film and i would expect an opening at about 150mil tops, it then 'only' needs 5 times legs to get to the first films gross, not out of the realms of possibility when the first film had 10 times legs, especially over the Christmas period.

Worldwide is a different matter completely, it could gross anything with the way the international scene has blown up over the last few years.

150M is a fanboy film.

[Dementeleus]

If it's another mid-December release, I have a hard time thinking it could cross $150m at the absolute max. There's a reason December openings are traditionally smaller than other times of the year -- people are starting to travel, they're shopping for presents, they're trying to finish up work so they can have the holidays free... these are limiting factors to a big opening.

 

If Cameron delivers a really good film, then who knows how high it could go. If it's a decent-enough movie with cool action but nothing super special, then it slumps to the mid-400s.

[kayumanggi]

I can't see this making less than 500 M.

[vc2002]

If it's another mid-December release, I have a hard time thinking it could cross $150m at the absolute max. There's a reason December openings are traditionally smaller than other times of the year -- people are starting to travel, they're shopping for presents, they're trying to finish up work so they can have the holidays free... these are limiting factors to a big opening.

 

If Cameron delivers a really good film, then who knows how high it could go. If it's a decent-enough movie with cool action but nothing super special, then it slumps to the mid-400s.

 

That''d be enough to ensure 500m+ IMO.

 

Mid-400's would happen only if the film gets very poor reception. It obviously wont have a mega OW, but the following holiday weekdays will make up for it. Avatar made almost 300m before the holidays ended. Suppose it'll be released in 2016, it will have much less competition. And also keep in mind that in 2016, there will be much more 3D screens than in 2009. In 2009 Avatar simply didn't have enough 3D screens to satisfy the demand. They wont have the problem in 2016.

 

I think it will go like this

 

Poor reception: 450m-ish

 

Decent reception: 500-550m

 

Good reception: 550-650m

 

Incredible reception: 650-750m.

 

Haters killing themselves reception: 750-10000000000000m!!!

Edited July 31, 2013 by vc2002

[Kalel009Shel]

0% chance of increasing domestically, it just was a perfect storm of factors that got it past $750M first time aroundand if it is going to reach its December 2014 release date then filming has to get going soon I would imagine

^^^ Then you woke up and it was just a dream This is James Cameron Giant. You may eat those words as predictors are feeling with increased theaters and Cameron promising to surpass Avatar in splendor. The results could go beyond 850+M Domestic.

[dashrendar44]

If Cameron churns out a script when Abyss meets Dune (the family tribes and cycles aspect of the saga) or Abyss meets Beowulf (the hero that becomes a living legend and dies just to be part of the bigger tale of Pandora about cultural transmission of myths and adventures through generations of Pandora's children memories), only sky is the limit.

Edited July 31, 2013 by dashrendar44

[Kalel009Shel]

That''d be enough to ensure 500m+ IMO.

 

Mid-400's would happen only if the film gets very poor reception. It obviously wont have a mega OW, but the following holiday weekdays will make up for it. Avatar made almost 300m before the holidays ended. Suppose it'll be released in 2016, it will have much less competition. And also keep in mind that in 2016, there will be much more 3D screens than in 2009. In 2009 Avatar simply didn't have enough 3D screens to satisfy the demand. They wont have the problem in 2016.

 

I think it will go like this

 

Poor reception: 450m-ish

 

Decent reception: 500-550m

 

Good reception: 550-650m

 

Incredible reception: 650-750m.

 

Haters killing themselves reception: 750-10000000000000m!!!

I think haters are going to kill themselves yet again.. As with all the new 3D- IMax. .Camerons knack at never dissappointing..

Man 900m-1Bil domestic would make me faint in happiness!!

[Kalel009Shel]

If Cameron churns out a script when Abyss meets Dune (the family tribes aspect of the saga) or Abyss meets Beowulf (the hero that becomes a living legend, a tale of cultural transmission of myths and adventures through generations), only sky is the limit.

Giant and others hoping for  Avengers 2 to win, are going to be feel very sick as I think Avatar will beat any cominc movie by 2.5-3.5B.

 

And yes if Avatar 2 reaches its out most limit....We could see a 4Billion+ Film.... Holy moly!!

[vc2002]

OK, time to call this "the Official Over-Prediction thread".

[Kalel009Shel]

Juggernaut 2015... WE WILL SHOW THEM THEY CANNOT TAKE WHAT THEY WANT!!

 

 

" THIS IS OUR LAND!!"

 

 

Can anything stand in the juggernaut's way...Will Avatar be the first to go for 800M-1Billion domestic in One Run..and 3.5B OS or much more??!!

[Kalel009Shel]

OK, time to call this "the Official Over-Prediction thread".

Ahem 2.8Billion in a far  smaller market.. People killing themselves over avatar and cults and clans started who are living the Pandora way ....Over Prediction you say VC2002...Think again..This is truly  the film that will shatter all we think are possible for December film yet again. Are you forgetting the markets will be 40-50% bigger by 2015-2016

[RobinHood26]

Avatar 2 will gross below TDKR....

[Kalel009Shel]

I'll give you another ultimate Cameron  Juggernuat possibility.

 

900-1B domestic, 4B OS

 

The worlds first 5 Billion dollar film!!!!. If that happens I see oxygen masks for so many haters.

 

As it is this film is a lock for bigger than Titanic numbers worldwide..  I mean how crazy is that ....A lock for 2billion + WW...GEESUS.

Imagine if blows everyone  away even beyond Avatar

[dashrendar44]

Ahem 2.8Billion in a far  smaller market.. People killing themselves over avatar and cults and clans started who are living the Pandora way ....Over Prediction you say VC2002...Think again..This is truly  the film that will shatter all we think are possible for December film yet again. Are you forgetting the markets will be 40-50% bigger by 2015-2016

 

Unlike PJ who failed, I think Cameron will convert theaters chain with 60 FPS by the time Avatar 2 comes like he converted them to massive 3D equipment back in 2009. Once he'll present them actual footage that blow them away seeing the potential of that presentation, they won't let the amount of cash slip away from their nose with that same argument that it's something so astounding (A Science Fantasy more real than reality, imagine Pandora's world in Imax 60 FPS, you're literally walking in the jungle) people can't experience at home, only in theaters = $$$$$$$$$$$$.

Edited July 31, 2013 by dashrendar44

[Kalel009Shel]

Avatar 2 will gross below TDKR....

Jay Im sorry this is the real world. That scenario will never happen..lol

Considering the first made over 3 times what TDKR made in a much much smaller market.ROFL.

[vc2002]

Ahem 2.8Billion in a far  smaller market.. People killing themselves over avatar and cults and clans started who are living the Pandora way ....Over Prediction you say VC2002...Think again..This is truly  the film that will shatter all we think are possible for December film yet again. Are you forgetting the markets will be 40-50% bigger by 2015-2016

 

That only suggests the potential is there, not necessarily means it will make that much. When the predecessor is that big, it's like a mission impossible for the sequel to beat it.

 

Right now I'm going with 550-650m. But of cause, if there's one guy in hollywood that can achieve the unthinkable, that's Cameron, so I definitely will never rule out of the possiblity of 800m DOM.

Edited July 31, 2013 by vc2002

[Kalel009Shel]

Unlike PJ who failed, I think Cameron will convert theaters chain with 60 FPS by the time Avatar 2 comes like he converted them to massive 3D equipment back in 2009. Once he'll present them actual footage and be blown away by the potential of that presentation, they won't let the amount of cash slip away from their nose.

Indeed Dash. Rem all those guys saying Avatar was so big it couldnt help but be a titanic, the Avatar day showing single handley caused theaters to say holy shi@@!! and the all out conversion and adding of digital and Imax with 3D additions all over the world... Why shouldnt Avatar spearhead a new movement in 3D and greatness yet again.

Wow Pandora in 60FPS and who knows what kind of visual tricks Cameron will work out for us with this kind of technology to show unprecedented character movement in stereo 3D And 3D Sound.

 

Oh My!!   I got Dibs on Avatar 2 Day....

[Kalel009Shel]

That only suggests the potential is there, not necessarily means it will make that much. When the predecessor is that big, it's like a mission impossible for the sequel to beat it.

 

Right now I'm going with 550-650m. But of cause, if there's one guy in hollywood that can achieve the unthinkable, that's Cameron, so I definitely will never rule out of the possiblity of 800m DOM.

True, but of course have we ever seen a sequel from Cameron that didnt blow our socks off and make more than the first. And judging by your Avatar VC buddy , you definitely are right with that the one man that can do is Cameron. Not even Steven or GL

achieved back to back pretty much 2billion+ films.. Holy shi!!

[Dementeleus]

Just think of the insanity when Michael Biehn or Bill Paxton gets cast as the commander of the new, invading Colonial Marine force.

[Kalel009Shel]

^^^VC2002, Imagine part 2 being such an escape from reality that theater chains refuse to kick it out and Avatar stays in3D Theaters for months on end....Everyone just is memorized and keeps  going back for more. I hope Fox can cut a deal with Imax

and have Avatar exclusively for 5mths or more