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CJohn

Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Even if we can explain the shit OW, Dragon's legs are inexplicable at this point. It had a low OW, a harsh 2nd weekend drop, no animated competition, and has nothing but critical raves and apparent praise from the people who do see it. Yet it's holding significantly  worse in its third weekend than even a big disappointment like KFP2. HOW, GODDAMIT, HOW?!?

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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HTTYD2 has fucked over so many people in the BSG......... Never again is a non-Pixar animated film going as number 1.

Ironically this is the only year ever I was sure an animated film would be #1 of the summer. Even last year I decided to go with IM3 over DM2 even though I thought all along it would be close. And 2010 I was really torn between IM2 and TS3. But this year seemed like Dragon 2 would take it easily to me. It's gone horribly horribly wrong for that movie.

 

I guess that and KFP2 will teach DWA to make quality sequels to quality movies. Madagascar 20 and Shrek 500 it is. :rolleyes:

Edited by MovieMan89
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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Should've gone with my gut and kept TF: AoE as #1 because with these numbers it seems like it'll be the number one film of the summer.

I don't think it's a lock at all honestly. All the 90m+ openers this summer have had multis around 2.2-2.5x.Even if this opens to a solid 100m I don't think anything above a 2.3x multi is very likely, especially if it's that bad of a movie. ROTF had shit legs as soon as the WOM kicked in, and summer multis weren't nearly as bad 5 years ago as now. A 2.3x multi off a 100m OW would put it in a horse race with DOFP for #1 of the summer. And I'm not even banking on a 2.3x multi. TASM2 barely managed 2.2x.

Edited by MovieMan89
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Empire Global Phenomenon

Empire

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So TF will scrape by 100m? How boring...

It seems like that will be the case. Wish some other movie this Summer could have had a 100M OW instead, but it is what it is.  :raining:

Edited by Empire
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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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I don't think AoE'll be getting bad WoM from the GA.

The TF sequels have both pretty much made it on their opening weeks. TF3 grossed nearly half of its total through its first Sunday, TF2 more than half. It's definitely one of the more frontloaded franchises. Not sure why this would be the exception, especially this awful summer.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Because there isn't really much else until Apes.

That's only 2 weeks away. And don't underestimate the potential appeal of a Melissa McCarthy comedy combined with a good summer horror flick next week. Tammy+ Deliver Us From Evil could provide plenty of appeal outside TF4 next week.

Edited by MovieMan89
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