Box Office Fact or Fiction: Week 13 w/ Jandrew, Tele and John. Transformers, Dragon, Star Wars and more

[grim22]

Welcome to the "we're still here" thirteenth edition of "Box Office Fact or Fiction". A feature where members of the Box Office forums are asked for their opinions on all things movies. Last time around Empire curbstomped #ED and MGS to win the week comfortable. Empire, your winners check is in the mail.

Please welcome the three contributors for this week's edition:

Our Lord and Admin Telemachos

Resident naysayer John Marston

and Forum Games author JAndrew

 

Let's get it started.

 

1. Transformers 4 will be the first 100M opener of the year

 

JAndrew: FICTION. I want Trans4mers to be successful and do over $100M OW and $300M total, but at the same time I want to see the hilarity of 5 $90M openers and no $100M till November. Trans4mers is still very popular and the event of the summer, but if Spiderman, XMen, and Cap couldn't do it, I don't know if Optimus in his 4th and "rebooted" outing still has the juice too. Another thing is summer weekdays, and Trans4mers is coming out right before Indy weekend. I think many people will not go this weekend, but wait for the holiday weekdays a few days later since they'll be with family, need something to do, etc.

 

Tele: FACT. We movie-snobs love to rag on Transformers, but there's no real indication that the franchise has suffered the sort of on-going collapse that Spidey is currently going through. Mark Wahlberg is always good and likable when he plays John Q. Everyman, and the focus on his Heartland family should help give the movie a bit of emotional heft amidst all the screaming and explosions. People love Bayhem and the lack of a breakout hit so far this summer means the marketplace is Primed to explode.

 

John: FACT - With presales matching recent 90m openers like Captain America 2 and X-Men DOFP, the Transformers series being known for getting strong walk ups and the appeal to both teens and kid audiences, an opening a bit over 100m  seems extremely likely. I expect it to fall short of getting the June OW record set by Man of Steel though. 

 

0 for 1

 

2. You would watch a sequel to "My Big Fat Greek Wedding"

 

JAndrew: FICTION. I've never seen MBFGW, but apparently it was a smash hit. Those types of movies arent really my cup of tea and I don't think the sequel is needed. MBFGW was a rare box office gem, and I doubt strongly that that magic will work for the sequel, especially over 12 years later.

 

Tele: FICTION. The original was a nice little movie that was fun to watch with your family, but I certainly don't have much interest in a sequel, and if anything I'm part of the target demo (seeing how the first one played off so many Greek family stereotypes).

 

John: FICTION - I have never watched My Big Fat Greek Wedding and never will, as it is not my type of movie. Therefore, I have zero interest in a sequel. 

 

1 for 2

 

 

3. Harrison Ford's injury will cause the release date of Star Wars 7 to be delayed

 

 

JAndrew: FICTION. I think they'll do whatever they did with Shia Labeauf in TF2. They'll probably just readjust the filming schedule and accommodate Ford later for when he heals. Disney and co. already stirred controversy with not being to decide on a date, and now that they have one, I don't think anything will have them move it now, especially a broken leg. And if they have to CGI and stunt double anything, they can just do that.

 

Tele: FICTION. We're a long ways away from that Dec 2015 release date, and it seems to me there's plenty of time to juggle the schedule to accommodate his recovery. As is always the case with all things Star Wars, the internet rumor-and-hype machine is out of control.

 

John: FICTION - with a year and half left until release, it seems there is enough time to accommodate Ford's injury.  Bob Iger seems to really want the film out before he leaves his position in April 2016 so I think he will make sure the filmmakers do whatever it takes, even using a CGI double for Ford if necessary. 

 

2 for 3

 

SWITCH #1!!

 

 

 

4. The 4 year gap between movies is the primary reason for HTTYD2 underperforming at the box office

 

Tele: FICTION. The four-year gap may have contributed somewhat, but I think it was a case where the first movie, as well-received as it was, just didn't make the further adventures of Hiccup and Company must-see entertainment. The sequel will do decently enough, and no doubt will sell well on home video. I think people like it -- just like they liked the first movie. But I don't think many people loved it. In an era of Shrek and Frozen and the minions of Despicable Me, HTTYD feels distinctly second tier... for better or worse.

 

John: FACT - while definitely not the only reason, I think these days it seems you have to strike while the iron is hot or you get forgotten with all the new movies and franchises that come out. I can't imagine Dragon 2 not doing a lot better if it had come out earlier. Still it wasn't the only reason. It never would have reached the gigantic heights some people predicted due to the rather lackluster trailers 

 

JAndrew: FICTION.The primary reason for the disappointment is because it just didn't connect with audiences. Marketing and the 4 year gap is also to blame, but the 4 year gap is not the primary reason. I don't think the 13 year gap will hurt Finding Dory. Dragon just doesn't have that "something" to keep it relevant enough.

 

2 for 4

 

5. Sigourney Weaver wants to star in another Alien movie. You think this is a good idea.

 

 

Tele: FICTION. it's not a particularly good idea. I appreciate that she feels such ownership in the character, but I just don't see what more can be explored. Ripley fought off the alien on her own, she rescued a would-be daughter and fought an alien Queen to the death, she died, was resurrected, cloned, and faced with her own mutant self. Her adventures have spanned literally centuries. Where could you possibly take the character that wouldn't feel derivative and/or redundant?

 

John: FICTION - I can't see anywhere for the character to go. This may be unpopular but I would much rather prefer a Prometheus sequel than Alien 5. 

 

JAndrew: FICTION. I thought Noomi Rapace did a great job in Prometheus, she really stood out. I think Sigourney is afraid of another central female taking Ripleys pace, even though Ripley is one of the most iconic characters of the past 50 years. And I dont think the storyline should be continued. The Alien series, at least most of it, is already acclaimed, no need to start driving it in the ground. Theres plenty more Sigourney can do. I mean, shes Sigourney.

 

 

3 for 5

 

6. Tom Hiddleston is a great choice to play Hank Williams in the planned biopic.

 

 

Tele: FICTION. It might work; he's a good actor, after all, and there have been stranger casting choices before. Still, it doesn't seem like a good fit. But maybe he'll prove the doubters wrong.

 

John: FACT - I don't really know anything about this guy but Hiddleston is a good actor so I will assume he will do the research and physical changes required to play this role

 

JAndrew: FACT. Dont really know anything about Hank Williams other than the honky tonk, but Hiddleston is a great actor who should be landing more roles so I dont see why not. He always stands out as Loki and is a very passionate actor. Hank is on the other end of the spectrum as Loki, but I think Tom can pull off the range. Going by what I know, I think he can make a statement.

 

3 for 6

 

 

SWITCH #2!!!!

 

 

7. You liked the "Dumb and Dumber To" trailer

 

 

John: FICTION - I found nothing about the Dumb and Dumber To trailer funny. However, I might be biased against it from the beginning since I never liked Dumb and Dumber, finding it rather childish and unfunny and definitely one of the weaker Jim Carrey films IMO.

 

JAndrew: FICTION. Barely. This is really on the border of fact and fiction. It had it's funny moments, but I felt the trailer was poorly cut and the music was very dull, and I'm not sold on it yet. Maybe later down the road, but I'll need something a little better. 

 

Tele: FACT. I think the first DUMB AND DUMBER is one of the funniest movies in the last 20 years, so I'm already a fan. While the trailer didn't wow me, it felt like Carrey and Daniels slipped right back into their characters and didn't miss a beat... and there were a couple of moments in the trailer that made me laugh out loud (something I don't usually do). I don't think the sequel will be able to reach the heights of the first, but it should be good for some solid laughs.

 

3 for 7

 

8. With Josh Trank, Gareth Edwards and Rian Johnson on board, you are excited for the upcoming movies in the Star Wars Universe

 

John: FACT - While I didn't care for some of these guys films, it is clear that they are talented and can definitely make a good film if they have a good story. I am definitely very excited.

 

JAndrew: FICTION. I'm not a big Star Wars fan. I still havent sat through all 6. Those guys are pretty good, but it takes more than a director to get me into a movie. And I'm not a big fan of all these spin-offs either, just feels way too corporate and unnecessary to me. I also honestly don't know who Rian Johnson is and barely know the other two. Directors aren't my strong point, I usually have to Wikipedia them. Anyway, I may see Episode 7, 8, 9, but I doubt the spinoffs since I don't care about Star Wars that much. I also don't want to be quick and say the movie will be good. They've only directed 1-2 movies, I need a little more to really see their talent.

 

Tele: FACT. I'm not thrilled about the spinoffs in general, especially any that end up being "origin" stories, but you can do a hell of a lot worse than those three young up-and-coming directors, and I'm interested in seeing how each adapts their own style to the SW universe.

 

3 for 8

 

9. Snowpiercer will disappoint at the domestic box office

 

 

John: FACT - Considering it likely won't get any marketing, a big theater count, no box office draws and an R rating, I see zero reason for this to do any notable business domestically. 

 

JAndrew: FACT. Haven't researched this movie apart from looking at the Wikipedia page, but I can tell it wont connect with audiences. Marketing will be slim, the R rating, and the summer isn't the best place for this type movie, when people are craving more big budget popcorn. I've also noticed that live action snow themed/bluescale/chilly movies have never really done that well.

 

Tele: FACT. I doubt it can even reach CHEF numbers. It's a niche director and a niche audience and will end up with niche totals. 

 

4 for 9

 

So the 3 of them end up disagreeing a lot more than being in agreement, and JAndrew admits to have never seen Star Wars.

 

Feel free to join in and provide your answers in this thread as well. Please do vote as to who you felt answered the questions better. Poll is at the top of this thread.

 

ALSO, please include any questions which you think should be asked to the next 3 contributors. I realize that most of the questions asked are based on what I follow and would like to incorporate more viewpoints into the feature. Please leave your probable questions as comments, or PM them to me and I will include them for the next edition.

 

I would like to thank Tele, John and JAndrew for taking time out to provide their opinions here. Thanks a lot guys.

 

I am looking for participants, please let me know if you would be interested in providing your opinions for future editions of this column.

 

Until Next Time.

Edited June 27, 2014 by grim22

[Dementeleus]

So, Jandrew, which SW movies haven't you seen?

[ban1o]

So, Jandrew, which SW movies haven't you seen?

yeah I was wondering that too

[Films]

Voted Jandrew

[Blankments]

John Marston for me

[Michael Gary Scott]

Not voting for tele he lost me when he said dumb and dumber was one of the funniest movies in the last 20 years

Edited June 27, 2014 by Michael Gary Scottt

[darkelf]

Not voting for tele he lost me when he said dumb and dumber was one of the funniest movies in the last 20 years

 

I voted for Tele mainly because of that. Plus, Jandrew lost me with the Star Wars thing.

[#ED]

Didn't read. Voted for fellow staff member.

[darkelf]

Didn't read. Voted for fellow staff member.

 

Wow, a conspiracy worthy of FIFA:

[RobinHood26]

I was going to vote for Jandrew but then he said he hadn't seen Star Wars and I was like fuck you. 

[Jandrew]

So, Jandrew, which SW movies haven't you seen?

If it makes everyone feel better, they pulled me in with the merchandise! Lego Star Wars for PS2 was life. Also have Episode 3 on DVD, had the plastic lightsabers (blue and purple), and I had that Vader voice change helmet thing. And maybe other stuff.Anyway I just think Episodes 5 and 6? I may have seen bits. Ive seen 1-3, but 4-6 is where I get fuzzy. I know ive seen 4 though. Its just so hard for me to get ahold of these old classic movies, especially when I was younger, but I do understand what gems they were. So let me rephrase, I do care about Star Wars - I know the characters and had the merch, Im just not really a fan. It's casual.And Ed, Jay, Blankments - Tele may be your fav, but im the Game Master. Remember who the real enemy is. Edited June 27, 2014 by Jandrew

[Dementeleus]

If it makes everyone feel better, they pulled me in with the merchandise! Lego Star Wars for PS2 was life. Also have Episode 3 on DVD, had the plastic lightsabers (blue and purple), and I had that Vader voice change helmet thing. And maybe other stuff.Anyway I just think Episodes 5 and 6? I may have seen bits. Ive seen 1-3, but 4-6 is where I get fuzzy. I know ive seen 4 though. Its just so hard for me to get ahold of these old classic movies, especially when I was younger, but I do understand what gems they were. So let me rephrase, I do care about Star Wars - I know the characters and had the merch, Im just not really a fan. It's casual.And Ed, Jay, Blankments - Tele may be your fav, but im the Game Master. Remember who the real enemy is.

 

So in other words, you've seen the shitty ones and you don't really remember how much you've seen of the good ones?

 

YOU SHALL NOT PASS.

[Jandrew]

So in other words, you've seen the shitty ones and you don't really remember how much you've seen of the good ones? YOU SHALL NOT PASS.

The prequels came out in my little boy years what do you expect! I remember the originals, just not details. Here, tell me where I can find them and I will go watch them fresh again.Not the prequels tho, Ive had enough.

[Michael Gary Scott]

So in other words, you've seen the shitty ones and you don't really remember how much you've seen of the good ones?YOU SHALL NOT PASS.

I wouldn't call the prequels shitty now youre really not getting my vote

[4815162342]

Tied between Tele and John Marston

[RobinHood26]

If it makes everyone feel better, they pulled me in with the merchandise! Lego Star Wars for PS2 was life. Also have Episode 3 on DVD, had the plastic lightsabers (blue and purple), and I had that Vader voice change helmet thing. And maybe other stuff.Anyway I just think Episodes 5 and 6? I may have seen bits. Ive seen 1-3, but 4-6 is where I get fuzzy. I know ive seen 4 though. Its just so hard for me to get ahold of these old classic movies, especially when I was younger, but I do understand what gems they were. So let me rephrase, I do care about Star Wars - I know the characters and had the merch, Im just not really a fan. It's casual.And Ed, Jay, Blankments - Tele may be your fav, but im the Game Master. Remember who the real enemy is.

 

Whats funny is I don't think you realize this post just made your original statement even worse. 

[Michael Gary Scott]

I voted for john marston

[Empire]

All did good, so I gave my vote to John to tie it up at 4.

[BK007]

Prequels are shit. Sad if anyone became a SW fan because of them.

 

I watched in order of release for the first time last year.

 

I think SW is great. The next one little less, didn't really like the finale either, is it ROTJ? Weird finale with teddy bears and shit.

 

But because ESB ends on a cliffhanger if I am not wrong, I prefer to just watch the one, and be done with it.