Friday Estimates: SH2 $15m, Alv $8m, MI4 $4m

[Ball Lightning]

But it's only really in "recession" in the US. Everywhere else it's going strong (or at least it seems to be).

Europe (or parts of it) are probably in a worse situation then US.. Its just the expanding markets (asia mainly) which are driving the OS explosion. Australia this year I think has been pretty quite except for DH2..

[JJ-8]

The whole the "movies sucked" excuse doesn't work because a lot of crap did well in the past. Go back to any year of this decade and crappy movies were doing well and adjust for inflation and all, they outperform movies that we consider did well this year. But the extent to which movies like "What's Your Number?" and "The Big Year" failed is quite telling. It's not like they were the scourge of the Earth-bad movies. "50/50" on opening weekend? Then "Three Musketeers" sure, no one asked for another edition but it's not like it looked any worse than movies from previous years. One must also question the incredible lack of the teenage/young adult age group this year. They can't all have decided to stop watching movies/download everything etc. there's a bigger factor in play, and it is more than likely linked to the economy.edit: Actually, I'll just say, of course it has to do with the economy, how is this even a debate? Since the crash, there's been an almost constant stream of crap news. From Greece, to Portugal, to Italy, the EU have been flirting with destruction for nearly two years. Plus, the constant bickering between the Democrats and the Republicans ensures that nothing gets done in the US, it's harsh but all you have to do is take the cuts. All this let's make it a soft landing crap just delays the inevitable, but your politicians and people are too short-sighted to think of that, partly also because of the whole instant gratification generation.

this is quite an interesting point as in australia where we have mostly avoided the worst of the problems elsewhere in the world to date, there really hasn't been serious downturn in the box office in comparison to previous years. some hiccups along the way here and there (but you get them anyway)... generally we are pretty close to flat this year i think - i will dig some numbers up and get back to you -(in saying that, the one real hit out the US domestic (BD1) has disappointed here.)- jajang

[lab276]

Europe (or parts of it) are probably in a worse situation then US.. Its just the expanding markets (asia mainly) which are driving the OS explosion. Australia this year I think has been pretty quite except for DH2..

Nah, Australia's had a bumper year. The strength was from sleeper hits like King's Speech and Red Dog.

[SchumacherFTW]

Europe (or parts of it) are probably in a worse situation then US.. Its just the expanding markets (asia mainly) which are driving the OS explosion. Australia this year I think has been pretty quite except for DH2..

The EU in general is pretty much fucked, Greece and Italy are espescially in the shitter. We in the UK are pretty stuffed. My area is a cess pool for it. Cost of living is rediculously high, but theres no bloody money. The most annoying thing about the cinema economy around here is, i've seen ticket prices CHEAPER in cities ffs. Correct me if i'm wrong, but our Odeon chain here is the equivalent I think of AMC if i'm not mistaken, massive number of sites and an IMAX monopoly, but so damn expensive its unreal. Edited December 17, 2011 by Schumacher FTW

[lab276]

As of October, there were 145m admissions in the UK, up from every year since 2004.

[CJohn]

Portugal is also in the shitter

[DAR]

Just speaking from personal experience, but unless it's something that's truly an event like HP2, I'm more than content to wait until a movie is released on blu-ray and watch a film on my TV at home these days.

[Magic]

I'm so glad I live in Australia. Our economic problems are nothing compared to the US, UK, Italy, Greece etc.Mind you we didn't do anything brilliant to be in this position. We are just lucky that we have stuff in the ground that China wants. Keep on truckin China.

[SchumacherFTW]

Last year was down, and excluding Potter, TKS and The Inbetweeners i'm guessing we've nosedived in 2011.

[lab276]

Last year was down, and excluding Potter, TKS and The Inbetweeners i'm guessing we've nosedived in 2011.

That's not the case:http://www.cinemauk.org.uk/ukcinemasector/admissions/monthlyukcinemaadmissions2004-2010/http://www.cinemauk.org.uk/ukcinemasector/admissions/monthlyukcinemaadmissions2011/

[SchumacherFTW]

Like I said, last year we were down, and i'm expecting even worse this year outside our Top 3.

[lab276]

But 2011 is up on every year since 2004, 145m tickets up to October.

Edited December 17, 2011 by lab276

[Ball Lightning]

Nah, Australia's had a bumper year. The strength was from sleeper hits like King's Speech and Red Dog.

Yeah.. I only started working during part of the year so I don't have a full perspective. I just keep being told how quite it is (except for DH2), probably just people always exaggerating what it was like :PBD1 is the only real massive disappointment for sure.. Red Dog's run was amazing

[Ball Lightning]

Also a very interesting table:http://www.screenaus...ompadmitper.asphttp://www.screenaustralia.gov.au/research/statistics/acompadmissions.asp

Edited December 17, 2011 by Ball Lightning

[JJ-8]

But 2011 is up on every year since 2004, 145m tickets up to October.

Yeah.. I only started working during part of the year so I don't have a full perspective. I just keep being told how quite it is (except for DH2), probably just people always exaggerating what it was like :PBD1 is the only real massive disappointment for sure.. Red Dog's run was amazing

yeah i just checked out the exact figures:2010 - 1.13B (was our biggest year ever!)2011 (to 11th December 2011) - 1.02B (this was calculated using existing figures - think i've undercut it by about 0.01 but this will do for now)ok some quick extrapolations from here.6m for week just gone.18m for whole of following week (includes weekend)christmas week - 35m+ final friday and sat of following week - 8m ?67m to go i think it will be higher overall in the end as i'm only using the top 20 from week to week and miss anything out side the top 20.1.1B is probabaly where we will end in australia. not a bad result at all.- jajang

[lab276]

So, would you say >90m admissions?The average price shouldn't be dramatically higher than last year because 3D has been less dominant.

Edited December 17, 2011 by lab276

[Ball Lightning]

Thats very very good I'd say 90m+ admissions should be the goal with the slight down turn+internet. I'm hoping for 100m next year (wishful thinking!!)

[JJ-8]

So, would you say >90m admissions?The average price shouldn't be dramatically higher than last year because 3D has been less dominant.

while in the US i would agree 3D isn't as dominant, i think the 3D landscape is very different. in saying all that i'm thinking admissions between 90m and 92m is where we will be at the end of the year (92m was what we got to last year which is very close to matching the record from back in 2001 & 2002 where we reached 92.5m admissions (same in both years - approximately of course)FYI it should be good enough for 5th all time most admissions in a year. and an outside shot at 4th.1. 2002 - 92.5m2. 2001 - 92.5m3. 2010 - 92.1m4. 2004 - 91.5m5. 2009 - 90.4m.. 2011 - 81.8m (to date)- jajang

[lab276]

Only 81.8m? That's a lot to make up over 13 days.

[JJ-8]

Only 81.8m? That's a lot to make up over 13 days.

sorry i meant - up to the 11th December ;)lol - and that is very approx at the moment as i beleive some data is missing - i am pretty sure it's higher than that but can't confirm - see the australian thread for more info - just posted in there now.....