The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[lab276]

2009 was less consistent than it looks on the surface. March and July in particular were quite bad. And December wasn't even bigger than 2005, 2006 or 2007 (in ticket sales that is). Not to mention overall, there were only 6m more tickets sold than 2006. So far, I'm more impressed by 2012.

[kayumanggi]

Of course 2012 is impressive and I think it has a very big chance of beating 2009.

[Shawn Robbins]

What's funny to me is that, amid all of these great weekends and openers, the entire top 10 from last weekend has a "rotten" consensus score on Rotten Tomatoes.

[AniNate]

I hope this doesn't mean that people won't go see the good stuff later because they're burned out on all the crap from Jan-March

[AniNate]

So... is the recession over?

[XenoZodiac]

So... is the recession over?

If TDKR fails to do 600M, its not.

So... is the recession over?

[kayumanggi]

It's over the moment THE DEVIL INSIDE opened.

[MovieMan89]

So... is the recession over?

Katniss and Danny Devito have firmly answered that question once and for all (or at least for the time being).

[Noctis]

If only DH1/DH2 had been released this year.

[Shawn Robbins]

I hope this doesn't mean that people won't go see the good stuff later because they're burned out on all the crap from Jan-March

No kidding. :lol:Watch TDKR and Avengers both miss $350 million. What a shocker that would be at this point.

[AniNate]

Well, that was posted before The Hunger Games came out. I think it's safe to say they won't.

[MovieMan89]

If only DH1/DH2 had been released this year.

May have done worse actually. I think part of the reason DH2 opened so huge was because it was THE event movie of last year. This year has so many of those that almost certainly would not have been the case. It would have had to share that title with TDKR, Avengers, The Hobbit, etc.

[tonytr87]

No kidding. :lol:Watch TDKR and Avengers both miss $350 million. What a shocker that would be at this point.

I've actually noticed a trend in recent years where films released in Jan-April overperform and many released during the summer underperform. I think it's simply a matter of dollars being spread more evenly throughout the year.

[AniNate]

Last year this season blew chunks, though. Summer was when it started to pick up a bit and then it blew chunks again from October though early December.

[Shawn Robbins]

Last year this season blew chunks, though. Summer was when it started to pick up a bit and then it blew chunks again from October though early December.

Summer wasn't even all that great itself though. It sorta felt like it here and there, but (IMO) that was more an illusion created by the preceding awful summer 2010 - spring 2011 period (the "trough" of the box office recession, if you will).I think 2012 is generally safe though. April will be a calmer month in all likelihood (after Titanic, at least) and May may not even be that big itself after Avengers if the big three of month after that disappoint. Then again, none of that could happen and the streak continues.Either way, I think once June hits the summer is going to be on a huge roll -- and it'll carry into a massive July, followed by a quieter fall with possible hits from the likes Argo, and then a *big* holiday season. Maybe the best Nov-Dec on record.

May have done worse actually. I think part of the reason DH2 opened so huge was because it was THE event movie of last year. This year has so many of those that almost certainly would not have been the case. It would have had to share that title with TDKR, Avengers, The Hobbit, etc.

I see the logic in this. I think I might even agree with it a little bit. I could see Potter "out-eventing" (I think I just coined a new term?) something like Avengers, but it would have had a time overcoming both TDKR and Hobbit at the same time. Edited April 1, 2012 by ShawnMR

[AniNate]

If Potter came out this year, either Dark Knight or Hobbit would not.And re last summer: I think it actually doesn't get the appreciation it deserves. We tend to overlook how many films were moderate hits even though nothing really broke out. 18 movies finished above the $100 million mark compared to 15 in 2009.

Edited April 1, 2012 by tribefan695

[rockNrollaDIM]

The box office recession is without a doubt deceased.All hail 2012.

Edited April 1, 2012 by rockNrollaDIM

[Shawn Robbins]

If Potter came out this year, either Dark Knight or Hobbit would not.

Also true. They usually don't like to crowd too much into one year as a means of spreading out the possible success into another year that might not look so great (hence, their move of Half-Blood in 2008 to 2009 once TDK was breaking all sorts of records). Just having two this year has to be potentially the best one-two punch any studio could ever ask for. Three would have been overkill, crowded, and unnecessary (to them).

[MovieMan89]

2007 did the 3 event movie thing with SM3, Shrek 3, and Pirates 3. Of course Shrek 3 was going after the family/kid audience though so that kind of lessened the crowding a bit. They all also under-performed, so obviously it's not the best strategy (that they all got crappy WOM didn't help though).

Edited April 1, 2012 by MovieMan89

[Dementeleus]

That was a little different, because they all opened the same month! Just ridiculous.