Chasmmi's Winter Game - Discussion and Rules - SCORES ARE TALLIED RESULTS COUNTDOWN IN PROGRESS!!!

[grim22]

I'd just like to say that I'm sorry this has not been stickied. I have no say in the matter. They have decided that 6 is the max and because of it, this one lost the sticky. So sorry Chas,

I'm all for this. The number of stickied threads were getting out of control. There were 12 at one point.

[laguy03]

What's the verdict? Are we not including everyone's prediction for The Interview? What about Paddington?

[Dementeleus]

IMO, whatever the official list of films at the beginning is, that's the locked version of allowed movies. That's the whole point of having a couple of back-up options. What happened to THE INTERVIEW is just like what happened to JA in the summer game, more or less. You roll the dice and hope nothing crazy happens, but if it does, so be it.

[grim22]

IMO, whatever the official list of films at the beginning is, that's the locked version of allowed movies. That's the whole point of having a couple of back-up options. What happened to THE INTERVIEW is just like what happened to JA in the summer game, more or less. You roll the dice and hope nothing crazy happens, but if it does, so be it.

 

Not exactly, JA moved out of summer altogether, so people got their backups. Interview just decided not to release wide. The back-up options don't even come into play.

Edited December 29, 2014 by grim22

[Filmovie]

I honestly have to revise my opinion. When I wrote it I didn't know Interview was going to have a VOD release on CD.

 

- Paddington: yes, it has been delayed but it has 10 days in which it will gross about 55-60% of its entire run. Of course it's less than what it wuold have done if it had opened on CD but it's better than nothing. Moreover it has less competition in that slot.

 

- The Interview: 8 days before its released it has been cancelled. Its site, its offical trailers, its official Facebook page have been removed. Marketing was completely stopped. On the 24th it was announced that it would have opened in a limited number of theatres and would have been released on VOD on Christmas Day. So no marketing.

 

Deadline reports that the movie has been rented or purchased 2 Million times in USA and Canada. And most of time you rent/purchase a comedy you don't watch it alone (and if you purchase it everyone can watch it whenever he wants) And these are all potetials paying moviegoers.  Moreover, the fact that you can have a perfect digital copy helps piracy (the movie has been illegally downloaded more than any comparable title). 

 

This is a pretty unique case.

 

That's only my point of view: given the facts that it had no marketing, a limited release instead of a wide one, it was available on VOD and  a perfect digital copy was perfectly donwloadable illegally, its gross shouldn't be considered.

 

On the other hand Paddington will express on 55-60% of its full potential (instead of 95%) but it will have a normal marketing and less competition. 

 

So it wuold be ridicolous (IMHO) to consider The Interview as part of the game. 

 

But I don't want you to think that I am only fighting for my rights: Paddington shoudn't count too. IMHO when a movie is delayed to a date so near to the deadline of the game it shouldn't be considered.

[grim22]

Looks like this can be scored now

 

1. Which film will have the Highest Opening Weekend? - Hobbit

 

- Correct: 2000 points   Incorrect: minus 45000 (because you need to be really quite thick to get this one wrong).

 

 

2. Which film will make back the highest percentage of its budget (budget according to BOM when published) on its opening weekend? - Can't be scored as BOM does not have a budget figure for Hobbit

 

- Correct 3000 points  Incorrect: minus 2000 points

 

 

3. Which film will have the largest 2nd weekend drop? (3 day to 3 day) - Hobbit

 

Correct 3000 points   Incorrect minus 2000 points

 

 

4. Which film will be closest to $80M on New Year's Day? - Almost surely NATM3

 

Correct 4000 points   Incorrect minus 3000 points

 

 

5. Which film will make it to a 2.5 multiplier the fastest? - If looking at 3 day figure, Hobbit. If 5 day and 3 day, NATM3 and Annie tie.

 

Correct 4000 points   Incorrect Minus 3000 points

[Dementeleus]

If INTERVIEW is disallowed, what's to stop disqualifying a movie the next time it goes from wide to limited? Or limited to wide, unexpectedly? Part of the fun of the game is the occasional complete wildcard.

[JJ-8]

If INTERVIEW is disallowed, what's to stop disqualifying a movie the next time it goes from wide to limited? Or limited to wide, unexpectedly? Part of the fun of the game is the occasional complete wildcard.

 

the whole point of the game is make a guess what the top 15 films will be for the season with the best information at the time.  i mean technically by the original rules the idea of having back ups for films which were delayed shouldn't even be there... the original idea as i understood it is everyones best guess of what the top 15 would look like (for the summer or winter)... 

 

keep it simple and then you don't get the confusion we have now.  It's my personal opinion that both paddington and the interview should remain as is if you included it in your top 15 or anything... otherwise it has wider ranging impacts on the game i really don't think baumer or chasmi ever would have wanted.

 

just my humble opinion and a call out to B to do away with the idea of back up films for good.

[chasmmi]

Sorry for disappearing, xmas time be crazy here.

 

Week questions are up as is a new SOTM:

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17250-sotm-10-an-easy-one-for-new-year/

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17249-week-14-woman-in-blaaack-is-dancing-with-me/

[chasmmi]

Regarding the Interview...

 

 

It will remain as a film in the game as it got a release. Yes it's a pain in the arse, but so is the Paddington thing for some people. So is the fact that Into the Woods and Unbroken both got more screen times and chances to make money thanks to 1/3 of the competion disappearing and means that they were more locked to make the OW lists.

 

Hunger Games never got released in China on time and that screws my WW prediction slightly.

 

In the Summer Game people were screwed over by Lucy's release date change.

 

Expendable had a major online piracy leak that arguably killed its cinematic gross.

 

 

There are endless scenarios (both real and theoretical) that have differing levels of legitmacy as arguments and because of this it is safest to have a very hard and strict rule of: 'if it gets a release in the time frame specified, it counts regardless of how wide or non-wide it was.

 

 

It's a real arse that something so unforseeable happens, but I believe making an exception would lead to a slippery slope in future.

[chasmmi]

Also mouse broke on my home computer so once I've bought a new one (hopefully today or tomorrow) I can get onto the scoring mountain that lies in front of me,

 

apologies again

[Filmovie]

The main differences are the VOD release, which any movie didn't have, and the marketing stopped, which any movie didn't have.

Obviously, the game is yours, you decide and so both The Interview and Paddington will count

[iceroll]

My game's too screwed up for it to matter anyway 

[Empire]

Yeah, my predictions are really bad. I am so done now I have basically stopped playing.

[Wrath]

The main differences are the VOD release, which any movie didn't have, and the marketing stopped, which any movie didn't have.

Obviously, the game is yours, you decide and so both The Interview and Paddington will count

 

Yeah, it sucks.  I've actually got Interview on my list of top Domestic (sitting exactly at 15th) so this screws me, too.  But I totally get the slippery slope argument and I'm fine with it.  I mean, that's what you're signing up for when you put the list together and everyone's in the same boat.

[baumer]

bump

[baumer]

Also mouse broke on my home computer so once I've bought a new one (hopefully today or tomorrow) I can get onto the scoring mountain that lies in front of me,

 

apologies again

 

If you want to pm me some questions that need scoring, I can help out over the next 5 days.  I've been very busy with work and I'm sorry I have not participated or helped out.  

[Wrath]

If you want to pm me some questions that need scoring, I can help out over the next 5 days.  I've been very busy with work and I'm sorry I have not participated or helped out.  

 

Huh, I'd have thought this was your slow-season.  Not as many campers to slaughter during the chilly winter months.

[Wrath]

So, I was playing with the numbers and I think pre-season questions 14 and 15 are both wrapped up at this point.

 

Question 14 was "Which 4 movies will make the most money?":

 

A: Hobbit, Hot Tub Time Machine 2, Annabelle, Wick

B: MJ1, HB2, Dracula, Annie

C: Interstellar, D&DT, Alex, Paddington

D: BH6, Penguins, Judge, Exodus

 

Its going to be "B", it's winning by a mile.  

 

- A - Hobbit still has plenty of BO to go, but losing Hot Tub hurt and its ~160M behind the MJ1 team right now

- C - Paddington hasn't come out yet, but its only going to get 1 weekend, MJ1 will presumably outgross Interstellar from here on out, and its ~120M behind

- D - BH6, Penguins and Exodus haven't finished their runs yet, but collectively they probably won't make more than MJ1 by itself, and they're currently ~85M behind

 

Question 15 was "Which group of movies will make the least money?":

 

A: Interview, Annabelle, Unbroken, Ouija

B: NatM3, Best of Me, BlackHat, Laggies

C: Into the Woods, Addicted, Kitchen Sink, Left Behind

D: Pyramid, Nightcrawler, Beyond the Lights, St Vincent

 

Its going to be D, just like everyone expected.

 

- A - Ouija and Annabelle both totally overachieved, Unbroken is still going and who knows what will happen with Interview.  If Unbroken breaks out, Interview does well, and Paddington bombs, its just possible this could catch Team C from Question 14.  Also, its already ~100M ahead of D

- B - Even if Blackhat brings in nothing, its still only $5M behind Team D right now.  Plus, NatM3 is still rolling and will probably end up outgrossing Team D all by itself

- C - Addicted, Kitchen Sink (release moved out of window), and Left Behind combined for some excellent futility, and its currently ~9M behind Team D, but Into the Woods is having none of it and would have to end its run in the next day or two to keep it a race.  

 

Its a little funny because D is technically only in 3rd right now, but its movies are all done, its not ahead of B and C by much, and Into the Woods and NatM3 are going to blow up their teams' chances.

[chasmmi]

Ok, thanks for the offer Baumer

 

Gonna get some scoring done now over the next couple of hours. If there's a lot left over at the end of this I may take you up oiin that.

 

 

Prepare for potential tables and scores galore folks...