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Weekend Prediction thread 5/10-5/12 Play the Derby

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Solo - 120M/150M

DP2 - 57M/68.5M

AIW - 19M/24M

Book Club - 9M/10.5M

Life of the Party - 4M/5M

Show Dogs - 3.5M/4.5M

Breaking in - 3.5M/4M

AQP - 2.5M/3M

Overboard - 2.5M/3M

Rampage - around 1M

 

Top 10 - 222M/273.5M

 

 

 

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% 4-day from last weekend's 3-day

(new) - Solo: Star Wars - 165.00 - 165.00

(-53%) - Deadpool 2 - 59.50 - 225.00

(-25%) - Infinity War - 22.00 - 627.70

(-23%) - The Book Club - 10.50 - 31.10

(-21%) - Life of the Party - 6.00 - 39.90

(-27%) - Breaking In - 5.00 - 36.60

(-25%) - Show Dogs - 4.50 - 12.60

(-24%) - A Quiet Place - 3.00 - 180.70

(-47%) - Overboard  2.50 - 40.85

(-37%) - Rampage - 1.00 - 94.10

(-45%) - I Feel Pretty - 0.70 - 47.90

(-22%) - Black Panther - 0.67 - 698.80

(-46%) - Tully - 0.30 - 9.00

 

  6/1 - 6/3  

Spoiler

Solo: Star Wars - 56.00 - 259.00

Deadpool 2 - 22.00 - 261.00

Infinity War - 11.00 - 644.00

Action Point - 10.00 - 10.00

Adrift - 10.00 - 10.00

The Book Club - 6.00 - 40.75

Upgrade - 3.00 - 3.00

Life of the Party - 2.25 - 43.35

Show Dogs - 2.00 - 15.60

Breaking In - 1.75 - 39.35

 

  6/8 - 6/10  

Spoiler

(new ) - Oceans Eight - 39.00 - 39.00

(-38%) - Solo: Star Wars - 35.00 - 319.00

(-41%) - Deadpool 2 - 13.00 - 283.00

(new) - Hereditary - 11.50 - 11.50

(new) - Hotel Artemis - 7.00 - 7.00

(-37%) - Infinity War - 7.00 - 7.00

(-40%) - Action Point - 6.00 - 20.50

(-40%) - Adrift - 6.00 - 20.50

(-46%) - The Book Club - 3.25 - 47.00

(-50%) - Upgrade - 1.50 - 6.00

- Show Dogs - 1.35 - 17.60

- Life of the Party - 1.25 - 45.75

- Breaking In - 1.00 - 41.00

 

   6/15 - 6/17  

Spoiler

Incredibles 2 - 135.00 - 135.00

Oceans Eight - 21.00 - 74.00

Solo: Star Wars - 21.00 - 355.00

Tag - 20.00 - 20.00

Superfly - 10.00 - 10.00

Deadpool 2 - 7.00 - 302.00

Infinity War - 4.50 - 663.00

(-50%) - Action Point - 3.00 - 26.50

(-50%) - Adrift - 3.00 - 26.50

- The Book Club - 1.50 - 50.25

 

  6/22 - 6/24  

Spoiler

Jurassic World - 160.00 - 160.00

Incredibles - 55.00 - 255.00

Oceans Eight - 13.00 - 97.00

Solo: Star Wars - 11.00 - 376.00

Tag - 10.00 - 38.00

Superfly - 5.00 - 20.00

Deadpool 2 - 3.50 - 310.00

Infinity War - 2.25 - 667.50

Action Point - 1.25 - 29.25

Adrift - 1.25 - 29.25

 

  6/29 - 7/1 - 

Spoiler

Jurassic World - 75.00 - 320.00

Incredibles  - 30.00 - 315.00

Sicario - 15.00 - 15.00

Uncle Drew - 15.00 - 15.00

The Hustle - 10.00 - 10.00

Oceans Eight - 8.00 - 113.00

Solo: Star Wars - 6.50 - 389.00

Tag - 6.00 - 49.50

Deadpool 2 - 1.75 - 314.00

Infinity War - 1.25 - 670.00

^^predicting films opening in the future and then going by theater drops weekend to weekend after can be very unpredictable.  example - The Greatest Showman.  If Sicario, Uncle Drew, or The Hustle become sleepers, then they could hold larger amount in the standing for the forthcoming weeks.  

 

  7/6 - 7/8   

(new) - Ant Man - 100.00 - 100.00

(-50%) - Jurassic World - 37.50 - 400.00

(new) - The First Purge - 19.00 - 37.00

(-40%) - Incredibles 2 - 18.00 - 354.00

- Sicario - 8.00 - 32.00

- Uncle Drew - 8.00 - 32.00

- The Hustle - 6.00 - 21.50

- Oceans Eight - 4.50 - 121.50

- Solo: Star Wars - 4.00 - 397.00

- Tag - 3.00 - 55.50

- Infinity War - 1.00 - 671.75

 

 7/13 - 7/15  

Ant-Man - 40.00 - 185.00

Hotel Transylvania - 35.00 - 35.00

Skyscraper - 35.00 - 35.00

Jurassic World - 20.00 - 440.00

The Incredibles - 9.00 - 375.00

The First Purge - 9.00 - 47.00

Sicario - 4.00 - 40.00

Uncle Drew - 4.00 - 40.00

Oceans Eight - 2.50 - 126.75

Solo: Star Wars - 2.50 - 402.00

 

 7/20-7/22 

Equalizer 2 - 35.00 - 35.00

Mamma Mia - 35.00 - 35.00

Ant-Man - 20.00 - 226.00

Hotel Transylvania - 20.00 - 76.00

Skyscraper - 17.50 - 72.50

Jurassic World - 12.00 - 464.00

The Incredibles - 5.00 - 386.00

The First Purge - 4.00 - 57.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Thematrixfilm
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6 hours ago, Blankments said:

I think the recliner seat theater has just consistently brought in more money than keeping the other theater open's worth

Interesting. A new theater opened by me a couple of weeks ago, but they are bombing HARD because of their ticket prices compared to the AMC nearby. I don’t think they’ll survive 2019 if they maintain the same prices.

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19 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Interesting. A new theater opened by me a couple of weeks ago, but they are bombing HARD because of their ticket prices compared to the AMC nearby. I don’t think they’ll survive 2019 if they maintain the same prices.

what are their prices? is it another theater chain?

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5 hours ago, YLF said:

what are their prices? is it another theater chain?

They’re a regional chain that builds theaters around Florida. These are their prices with tax:

 

Weekday matinee: $9.10 for 2D, $12.30 for 3D, $13.40 for PLF

Weekday evening: $11.25 for 2D, $14.45 for 3D, $15.50 for PLF

Weekend matinee: $10.15 for 2D, $13.40 for 3D, $14.45 for PLF (weekend pricing is applied to previews as well)

Weekend evening: $12.30 for 2D, $15.50 for 3D, $16.60 for PLF

 

This is what AMC is:

 

Morning: $4.60 for 2D, $7.80 for 3D

Afternoon: $7.30 for 2D, $10.50 for 3D, $5.65 for seniors and kids 2D, $8.90 for seniors and kids 3D

Weekday evenings: $8.90 for 2D, $12.10 for 3D, Seniors pay regular matinee prices, kids pricing remains the same

Weekend evenings: $9.95 for 2D, $13.15 for 3D, $8.35 for seniors 2D, $6.75 for kids 2D, $11.55 for seniors 3D, $9.95 for kids 3D

 

This is before convenience fees, too; the new theater has a $2 surcharge vs the $1.50 at AMC that can be waived with Stubs. As you can see, the difference in pricing is pretty damn big. This is a rural area, and the incomes around here aren’t enough to pay city pricing. There’s only a 15 minute distance between the theaters, so if someone has a group of people, it’s cheaper just to take the drive if they’re located closer to the new theater.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

They’re a regional chain that builds theaters around Florida. These are their prices with tax:

 

Weekday matinee: $9.10 for 2D, $12.30 for 3D, $13.40 for PLF

Weekday evening: $11.25 for 2D, $14.45 for 3D, $15.50 for PLF

Weekend matinee: $10.15 for 2D, $13.40 for 3D, $14.45 for PLF (weekend pricing is applied to previews as well)

Weekend evening: $12.30 for 2D, $15.50 for 3D, $16.60 for PLF

 

This is what AMC is:

 

Morning: $4.60 for 2D, $7.80 for 3D

Afternoon: $7.30 for 2D, $10.50 for 3D, $5.65 for seniors and kids 2D, $8.90 for seniors and kids 3D

Weekday evenings: $8.90 for 2D, $12.10 for 3D, Seniors pay regular matinee prices, kids pricing remains the same

Weekend evenings: $9.95 for 2D, $13.15 for 3D, $8.35 for seniors 2D, $6.75 for kids 2D, $11.55 for seniors 3D, $9.95 for kids 3D

 

This is before convenience fees, too; the new theater has a $2 surcharge vs the $1.50 at AMC that can be waived with Stubs. As you can see, the difference in pricing is pretty damn big. This is a rural area, and the incomes around here aren’t enough to pay city pricing. There’s only a 15 minute distance between the theaters, so if someone has a group of people, it’s cheaper just to take the drive if they’re located closer to the new theater.

ugh, their prices are still cheaper than in LA

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On 5/11/2018 at 12:12 AM, Blankments said:

Bad Samaritan, Black Panther, Ready Player One, Sherlock Gnomes, Tyler Perry's Acrimony, Blockers, Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, and The Miracle Season are gone. It is worth noting one of our three theaters closed permanently this weekend.

 

Avengers: Infinity War - 15/5 (2D/3D) total 20 (down 18)

Breaking In - 12 (debut)

Life of the Party - 12 (debut)

Sorry, y'all, I was in New York last week so I forgot to update. A Quiet Place, A Wrinkle in Time. Overboard, Tully, Rampage, Super Troopers 2, Truth or Dare, and I Feel Pretty are gone.

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story - 13/8 (2D/3D) total 21 (debut)

Deadpool 2 - 19 (N/A)

Book Club - 10 (N/A)

Life of the Party - 9 (down 3)

Show Dogs - 8 (N/A)

Avengers: Infinity War - 5 (down 15)
Breaking In - 1 (down 11)

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Solo - Star Wars - 156.00

Deadpool 2 - 55.00

Avengers - 22.00

Book Club - 12.75

Life of Party - 5.00

Breaking In - 4.40 

Show Dogs - 4.65

Overboard - 2.50

A Quiet Place - 2.87

 

Rampage - 0.83 - 93.93

Black Panther - 0.55 - 698.68

I Feel Pretty - 0.50 - 47.67

Ready Player One - 0.29 - 135.74

Sherlock Gnomes - 0.24 - 42.56

A Wrinkle in Time - 0.20 - 97.64

 

  6/1 - 6/3  

Spoiler

Solo - Star Wars - 54.00 - 213.00

Deadpool 2 - 22.50 - 254.50

Avengers - 11.00 - 642.75

Adrift - 9.15 - 9.15

Action Point - 7.00 - 7.00

Book Club - 6.25 - 39.84

Upgrade - 3.25 - 3.25

Life of the Party - 2.00 - 42.19

Show Dogs - 2.00 - 15.43

Breaking In - 1.50 - 38.43

A Quiet Place - 1.10 - 180.06

Overboard - 0.75 - 42.24

 

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52 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Solo - Star Wars - 156.00

Deadpool 2 - 55.00

Avengers - 22.00

Book Club - 12.75

Life of Party - 5.00

Breaking In - 4.40 

Show Dogs - 4.65

Overboard - 2.50

A Quiet Place - 2.87

 

Rampage - 0.83 - 93.93

Black Panther - 0.55 - 698.68

I Feel Pretty - 0.50 - 47.67

Ready Player One - 0.29 - 135.74

Sherlock Gnomes - 0.24 - 42.56

A Wrinkle in Time - 0.20 - 97.64

 

  6/1 - 6/3  

  Hide contents

Solo - Star Wars - 54.00 - 213.00

Deadpool 2 - 22.50 - 254.50

Avengers - 11.00 - 642.75

Adrift - 9.15 - 9.15

Action Point - 7.00 - 7.00

Book Club - 6.25 - 39.84

Upgrade - 3.25 - 3.25

Life of the Party - 2.00 - 42.19

Show Dogs - 2.00 - 15.43

Breaking In - 1.50 - 38.43

A Quiet Place - 1.10 - 180.06

Overboard - 0.75 - 42.24

 

Think your second week Solo totals are off a wee bit based on your opening weekend frame 

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3 hours ago, lightyagami said:

Think your second week Solo totals are off a wee bit based on your opening weekend frame 

I think I forgot to include the Monday # 

14.5 previews + 35 Friday + 40 Saturday + 36 Sunday + 30.5 Monday + 16 Tuesday + 10 Wednesday + 8 Thursday = 190 7-day.

+ 54 = 244 total.  

 

 

 

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I'm going to try the number 1 movie each weekend until the end of the year. Why not

 

May 25 - Solo 82M

June 1 - Solo 38M

June 8 - Oceans 8 39M

June 15 - Incredibles 2 151M

June 22 - Jurassic World 145M

June 29 - Jurassic World 68M

July 6 - Ant Man 90M

July 13 - Hotel Transylvania 46M

July 20 - MamaMia 32M

July 27 - Mission Impossible 64M

August 3 - Christopher Robin 65M

August 10 - Christopher Robin 37M

August 17 - Christopher Robin 26M

August 24 - either Christopher Robin or Slender Man at 20M

August 31 - Kin 16M

September 7 - The Nun 55M

September 14 - Predator 42M

September 21 - House with a Clock in its Walls 31M

September 28 - Night School 43M

Oct 5 - Venom 103M

Oct 12 - Venom 48M

Oct 19 - Halloween 69M

Oct 26 - Halloween 30M

Nov 2 - Bohemian Rhapsody 59M

Nov 9 - The Grinch 95M

Nov 16 - Fantastic Beasts 88M

Nov 23 - Wreck It Ralph 60M

Nov 30 - Wreck it Ralph 33M

December 7 - Wreck It Ralph 20M

December 14 - Mortal Engines 39M

December 21 - Aquaman 66M

December 28 - Mary Poppins 58M

 

 

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Solo: 30M

Ocean's 8: 33M

Incredibles 2: 150M

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 135M

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 60M

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 100M

Skyscraper: 50M

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 35M

Mission: Impossible - Fallout: 60M

Christopher Robin: 70M

Christopher Robin: 40M

The Happytime Murders: 30M
Christopher Robin: 16M

Christopher Robin: 13M

The Nun: 40M

A Simple Favor: 25M

The House with A Clock in Its Walls: 30M

Night School: 40M

Venom: 85M

First Man: 40M

Halloween: 70M

Halloween: 35M

Bohemian Rhapsody: 70M

Dr. Suess' The Grinch: 65M

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 70M

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 65M

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 35M

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 24M

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: 20M

Aquaman: 50M

Mary Poppins Returns: 65M

 

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Kinda surprised people think Christopher Robin is getting a $60 million+ OW. None of the animated Winnie the Pooh films have done that well. It'll do better than Pete's Dragon since it has slightly less competition, but anything over $115-125 million DOM is a stretch IMO unless it gets some phenomenal WOM. 

 

Spoiler

6/1-6/3

  1. Solo - A Star Wars Story: $34 million ($147 million) 
  2. Deadpool 2: $18.5 million ($244 million) 
  3. Adrift: $13 million 
  4. Avengers - Infinity War: $9 million ($637 million) 
  5. Book Club: $6.5 million ($44 million) 
  6. Action Point: $5 million 
  7. Upgrade: $3.5 million 
  8. Life of the Party: $3 million ($44 million)
  9. Breaking In: $2 million ($39 million)
  10. Overboard: $1.5 million ($44 million)

6/8-6/10

  1. Ocean's 8: $47 million
  2. Solo - A Star Wars Story: $17 million ($191 million) 
  3. Deadpool 2: $10 million ($257 million) 
  4. Hereditary: $8.5 million  
  5. Hotel Artemis: $7 million 
  6. Adrift: $6.5 million ($25 million) 
  7. Avengers - Infinity War: $6 million ($647 million) 
  8. Book Club: $3.5 million ($50 million) 
  9. Won't You Be My Neighbor?: $1.5 million 

6/15-6/17

  1. The Incredibles 2: $154 million 
  2. Ocean's 8: $22 million ($88 million) 
  3. Tag: $14 million 
  4. Solo - A Star Wars Story: $10 million ($210 million) 
  5. Superfly: $7 million 
  6. Deadpool 2: $5 million ($266 million) 
  7. Avengers - Infinity War: $3.5 million ($653 million) 
  8. Hereditary: $3 million ($13 million) 
  9. Hotel Artemis: $3 million ($12 million) 
  10. Adrift: $2.5 million ($30 million) 

6/22-6/24

  1. Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom: $142.5 million 
  2. The Incredibles 2: $74.5 million ($305 million) 
  3. Ocean's 8: $10 million ($109 million) 
  4. Tag: $6 million ($26 million) 
  5. Solo - A Star Wars Story: $3.5 million ($218 million) 
  6. Superfly: $2.5 million ($13 million) 
  7. Deadpool 2: $2 million ($271 million) 
  8. Avengers - Infinity War: $1.5 million ($654 million) 
  9. Hotel Artemis: $1.5 million ($15 million) 
  10. Hereditary: $1.5 million ($16 million) 

 

 

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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