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Weekend Prediction thread 8/23-8/25 Play the Derby

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mahnamahna, I'm really curious to hear why you think Pixels is going to have strong late legs. Even if it opens big I don't know if the WOM will be there to sustain small drops.

  1. Zero family-friendly competition (Shaun and Underdogs will combine for sub-$50 million DOM IMO) 
  2. Late August is typically a dead period, which allows the late July/early August tentpoles to hold decently if they're well-liked
  3. Pixels looks like a crowd-pleaser
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And then lmao at Straight outta Compton.

Laugh all you want... but the buzz for it is huge. If it gets decent reviews, along with Universal's hot streak, a $45-50 million OW isn't that odd, especially since it could be extremely frontloaded. 

 

Compton being the highest grossing August release is my bold prediction for the month  :P

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  1. Pixels - 44.0M
  2. Paper Towns - 28.8M
  3. Ant-Man - 26.9M
  4. Minions - 19.7M
  5. Trainwreck - 19.3M
  6. Southpaw - 16.7M
  7. Inside Out - 7.2M
  8. Jurassic World - 6.9M
  9. Mr. Holmes - 3.4M
  10. Terminator: Genisys - 1.8M
  11. Magic Mike XXL - 1.8M
  12. The Vatican Tapes - 1.5M
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  1. Zero family-friendly competition (Shaun and Underdogs will combine for sub-$50 million DOM IMO) 
  2. Late August is typically a dead period, which allows the late July/early August tentpoles to hold decently if they're well-liked
  3. Pixels looks like a crowd-pleaser

 

 

F4 would suck up all the box office mojo left in August. If not that, Rogue Nation will do it.

Edited by zackzack
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Laugh all you want... but the buzz for it is huge. If it gets decent reviews, along with Universal's hot streak, a $45-50 million OW isn't that odd, especially since it could be extremely frontloaded. 

 

Compton being the highest grossing August release is my bold prediction for the month  :P

 

Your OW prediction for Compton isn't ridiculous, but your predicted drops for it definitely are.

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Laugh all you want... but the buzz for it is huge. If it gets decent reviews, along with Universal's hot streak, a $45-50 million OW isn't that odd, especially since it could be extremely frontloaded. 

 

Compton being the highest grossing August release is my bold prediction for the month  :P

But my point is, it won't fourpeat, its extremely unlikely.

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Your OW prediction for Compton isn't ridiculous, but your predicted drops for it definitely are.

I just don't think it'll be as front-loaded as some are expecting. Especially with it being the last compelling film for a good month until Black Mass/MR2/Everest. 

 

$50 million OW with a 3x-3.5x. Maybe 2x-2.5x if it doesn't get decent reviews. I do think it'll fly past $100 million DOM either way.

 

And my 3rd weekend and Labor Day drops definitely aren't ridiculous. I do agree that 2nd weekend is more like 55-60%, but 40-45% in the 3rd and 10-15% over Labor Day is definitely reasonable.  

 

F4 would suck up all the box office mojo left in August. If not that, Rogue Nation will do it.

F4 should open to $40 million... assuming a CBM typical 50-55% 2nd weekend drop... by the third weekend of August, F4 will barely be above $10 million.

 

Rogue Nation is also tracking at $40 million, so by the 3rd weekend of August, it should pretty much be sub-$10 million. 

 

Pixels' kid appeal gives it the best chance at staying power until Labor Day. I wouldn't be shocked by a $30-35 million OW on its way to a 4x-4.5x. 

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I just don't think it'll be as front-loaded as some are expecting. Especially with it being the last compelling film for a good month until Black Mass/MR2/Everest. 

 

$50 million OW with a 3x-3.5x. Maybe 2x-2.5x if it doesn't get decent reviews. I do think it'll fly past $100 million DOM either way.

 

And my 3rd weekend and Labor Day drops definitely aren't ridiculous. I do agree that 2nd weekend is more like 55-60%, but 40-45% in the 3rd and 10-15% over Labor Day is definitely reasonable.  

 

F4 should open to $40 million... assuming a CBM typical 50-55% 2nd weekend drop... by the third weekend of August, F4 will barely be above $10 million.

 

Rogue Nation is also tracking at $40 million, so by the 3rd weekend of August, it should pretty much be sub-$10 million. 

 

Pixels' kid appeal gives it the best chance at staying power until Labor Day. I wouldn't be shocked by a $30-35 million OW on its way to a 4x-4.5x. 

 

Many families will not associate Sandler with family-friendly fares. But older teens would be drawn to this but then again, Rogue Nation & F4, being PG13, will be bigger draws than Pixels. Then again, I don't know, Pixels looks very different from other alien invasion movies. The playful tone will surely be a refreshing change for audience who are tired of spies, superheroes, and nefarious plotting.

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Drive-in is Minions and Inside Out again.

Self/Less and Spy are gone. Drive-in is Pixels and Minions.
 
Ant-Man - 22/13/6 (2D/3D/IMAX 3D) total 41 (down 7)
Minions - 26/8 (2D/3D) total 34 (down 20)
Pixels - 14/3/7/3 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX) total 28 (debut)
Jurassic World - 16 (no change)
Paper Towns - 16 (debut)
Southpaw - 16 (debut)
Trainwreck - 16 (down 5)
Inside Out - 15 (down 1)
Mr. Holmes - 10 (debut)
Terminator Genisys - 7 (down 6)
The Gallows - 6 (down 6)
Ted 2 - 5 (down 3)
Magic Mike XXL - 4 (down 9)
Max - 3 (down 2)
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Love you to death man but you've become the male version of Shay.

i told folks furious 7 could be a billion dollar plus force and that jp world might beat everything because of nostalgia. So im no shay bishop. Me n baumets and others have been making some gut felt calls and statement why films are a winner and come out ontop for quite sometime now
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