Weekend Estimates: Annabelle - 37.2M | Gone Girl - 38M | Equalizer - 19M | Maze Runner - 12M | Left Behind - 6.8M

[Krissykins]

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Looking at the daily estimate for the top 2 movies, Annabelle will likely have a much harder drop once the actuals # comes in on Monday.

 

 

Why? It's 45% Sunday is reasonable.....Gone Girls 36.6% however, not so much.

[CJohn]

Gone Girl will repeat at number 1. Dracula will do Hansel & Gretel numbers and Alexander will do Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 numbers. And honestly The Judge won't be as big as many people claim it will be (around the high-teens range.)

Hansel & Gretel numbers would put a smile in my face. I am honestly afraid it does only 12-13M. 

[CJohn]

Gone Girl's Sunday drop... that doesn't seem legit at all. It will drop close to 40%, IMO. 

[baumer]

U guys arent high on The Judge?

[baumer]

I think they are using Gravitys Sunday drop for GG.

[CJohn]

U guys arent high on The Judge?

You really think it is gonna do well? Reviews aren't very good, and it seems like the type of movie that will do 12-14M OW.

Edited October 5, 2014 by CJohn

[The Panda]

Next week will probably end the 30m opener streak.

However Fury and Ouiji both have great chances.

[mahnamahna]

Gone Girl will repeat at number 1. Dracula will do Hansel & Gretel numbers and Alexander will do Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 numbers. And honestly The Judge won't be as big as many people claim it will be (around the high-teens range.)

Think you're overestimating Dracula and underestimating Alexander. Annabelle and Maze Runner have the teen horror/action crowd covered. Gone Girl and The Judge will get all of the adults. So Dracula Untold doesn't really have much of an audience.

 

Meanwhile, Alexander is getting relatively solid reviews and has the advantage of no kids films breaking out since HTTYD2. Boxtrolls will finish with $55-60 million. Dolphin Tale 2 with $40-45 million. Book of Life also looks pretty rough lol. 

 

I'm expecting $25-30 million OW for it... probably neck in neck with GG for 1st place. 

 

With a $38 million OW in October, I'd say GG might have a $26-27 million 2nd weekend. $22-23 million seems way too harsh a drop for a critically acclaimed Oscar contender. 

[baumer]

GGs Sunday drop looks reasonable to me.

[The Panda]

You really think it is gonna do well? Reviews aren't very good, and it seems like the type of movie that will do 12-14M OW.

RDJ will push it over a 20m opening, but it's not getting 30+ with those reviews and boring subject.

[mahnamahna]

U guys arent high on The Judge?

Until the bad reviews, I was. Gone Girl breaking out and Fury the following week will hurt it. I expect $14-16 million OW

[baumer]

You really think it is gonna do well? Reviews aren't very good, and it seems like the type of movie that will do 12-14M OW.

It looks more like a 20 mill movie to me.

[Krissykins]

Dracula Untold made $21m from 25 markets.

[CJohn]

I think they are using Gravitys Sunday drop for GG.

So they are comparing themselves to a freak of box office? Good luck with that.

[CoolioD1]

U guys arent high on The Judge?

I guess it's a test of how strong RDJ's draw is, considering it's his first starring vehicle post-avengers that isn't marvel branded. but idk, beyond that it doesn't look like much.

[CJohn]

Dracula Untold made $21m from 25 markets.

I think that includes most of the big markets. Only Brazil, Italy and Spain (and China if it gets released there) are left, so the over performance in Portugal was a fluke. 

[baumer]

So they are comparing themselves to a freak of box office? Good luck with that.

No. They are comparing it to an early October film aimed at adults.

Makes sense to me.

[Ethan Hunt]

I think The Judge will open 19-21M

[The Panda]

This October is looking especially strong, I find that funny after people saying it would be barren.

[sfran43]

Why? It's 45% Sunday is reasonable.....Gone Girls 36.6% however, not so much.

I'm looking at Saturday's estimates, not Sunday. I think Saturday's actual will be much less than what the estimate indicates. I could be very wrong, or i could be right. JMHO.