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Best director predictions! 2015!

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Mid-October Pre-AFI picks:

1. David O. Russell, Joy

2. Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant

3. Todd Haynes, Carol

4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

5. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

6. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

7. László Nemes, Son of Saul

8. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

9. Quentin Tarntino, The Hateful Eight

10. John Crowley, Brooklyn OR Cary Fukunga, Beasts of No Nation

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Mid-October Pre-AFI picks:

1. David O. Russell, Joy

2. Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant

3. Todd Haynes, Carol

4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

5. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

6. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

7. László Nemes, Son of Saul

8. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

9. Quentin Tarntino, The Hateful Eight

10. John Crowley, Brooklyn OR Cary Fukunga, Beasts of No Nation

Is Son of Saul really going to be that big of a contender? 

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Is Son of Saul really going to be that big of a contender?

I still think it is SPC #1 and a secret weapon.

It got great response at Telluride, Toronto, NYFF and has a good release date. Usually the foreign films to break out big do it sneakily.

That all being said,my confidence is faltering. It isn't in any of my above the mom predictions. Right now I'd have it in cinematography, sound mixing, and foreign language.

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I can see it pulling an Amour. Even though the director is the opposite of Haneke in terms of where he is in his career, the movie is by all accounts extremely impressive and the Holocaust theme will help.

 

Right now I have DOR, McCarthy, Miller and Haynes as my top 4 and the #5 spot is between Inarritu, Nemes, Spielberg and maybe Boyle, but like I said on the last page, who the hell knows really. I still remember how WTF this category ended up being three years ago. 

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I can see it pulling an Amour. Even though the director is the opposite of Haneke in terms of where he is in his career, the movie is by all accounts extremely impressive and the Holocaust theme will help.

 

It happened with City of God in 03 which also had a young unknown director, so who knows.

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Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

 

Alternates:

1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

2. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

3. Adam McKay, The Big Short

4. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

5. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

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Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby:

 

Tom McCarthy: 7/20

David O Russell: 7/17

Ridley Scott: 4/13

Alejandro G Inarritu: 2/18

Todd Haynes: 2/11

Danny Boyle: 0/11

Steven Spielberg: 0/7

George Miller: 0/5

Lenny Abrahamson: 0/3

Scott Cooper: 0/1

John Crowley: 0/1

Tom Hooper: 0/1

Cary Fukunaga: 0/1

Quentin Tarantino: 0/1

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Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby:

 

 

Tom McCarthy: 7/20 (flat)

David O Russell: 6/16 (down 1 win, down 1 nom)

Ridley Scott: 4/16 (up 3 noms)

Alejandro G Inarritu: 2/18 (flat)

Todd Haynes: 2/11 (flat)

Steven Spielberg: 0/7 (flat)

Danny Boyle: 0/6 (down 5 noms)

George Miller: 0/4 (down 1 nom)

Lenny Abrahamson: 0/3 (flat)

John Crowley: 0/2 (up 1 nom)

Cary Fukunaga: 0/1 (flat)

Quentin Tarantino: 0/1 (flat)

 

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Current:

 

Todd Haynes for Carol

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant

Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

Adam McKay for The Big Short

Ridley Scott for The Martian

 

Alt: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road

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1. Ridley Scott

2. Tom McCarthy

3. Alejandro Inarritu

---------------------------

4. George Miller

---------------------------

5. Adam McKay

6. Todd Haynes

7. Steven Spielberg

8. JJ Abrams

 

This is more or less a matter of who gets the final spot now. The first three are locked and Miller is very likely.

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