CJohn Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) Next weekend is going to look a little strange. 2009 was the last time the 4th of july was on a saturday. So films will increase normally on a Friday, then drop big time on Saturday and then increase moderately on Sunday. If IO is to follow UP, it would have a 56% increase on Friday, drop 32% Saturday and increase by about 7% Sunday. Not sure what to compare JW to. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-07-05&track=up.htm It is gonna be a shitty weekend. Where do movies recover from that shit ass drop on Saturday? Sunday doesn't seem to correct anything but rather do what movies would normally do if they had increased on Saturday. EDIT: Transformers 2? Edited June 28, 2015 by CJohn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 With Canada Day falling on the Wednesday, films might have a bigger than normal drop that day as well. We celebrate in the same way the Yanks do, bbq, beer and family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 It seems like a shit weekend to open a movie tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 It is gonna be a shitty weekend. EDIT: Transformers 2? Yep, but it will be made up the weekend after. I hope someone bookmarks this post so they will see that I'm saying, if JW or IO falls hard next weekend, it's not due to bad anything, it's just the weekend and the 4th falling on a Saturday. The weekend after will have some truly insane holds. Hangover, for example, fell 11% the weekend after the 4th. In fact, look at the drops, all were very small. Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 N Bruno Uni. $30,619,130 - 2,756 - $11,110 $30,619,130 - 1 2 2 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs Fox $27,607,497 -33.8% 4,102 +3 $6,730 $119,680,193 $90 2 3 1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $24,213,875 -42.8% 4,293 +59 $5,640 $339,221,800 $200 3 4 3 Public Enemies Uni. $13,794,240 -45.4% 3,336 +2 $4,135 $66,221,110 $100 2 5 4 The Proposal BV $10,603,884 -17.5% 3,158 +59 $3,358 $113,861,076 $40 4 6 5 The Hangover WB $9,933,238 -11.8% 3,002 -68 $3,309 $222,444,906 $35 6 7 N I Love You Beth Cooper Fox $4,919,433 - 1,858 - $2,648 $4,919,433 $18 1 8 6 Up BV $4,715,746 -27.7% 2,201 -455 $2,143 $273,834,761 $175 7 9 7 My Sister's Keeper WB $4,294,382 -25.8% 2,444 -162 $1,757 $35,915,782 $30 3 10 8 The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 Sony $1,543,516 -39.1% 1,116 -792 $1,383 $61,437,955 $100 5 11 10 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian Fox $1,452,662 -28.9% 854 -565 $1,701 $170,485,184 $150 8 12 11 Star Trek Par. $1,164,416 -34.2% 763 -385 $1,526 $251,970,795 $150 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) IO won't have that luck on the weekend after. It will drop hard anyway Edited June 28, 2015 by CJohn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 It seems like a shit weekend to open a movie tbh. That's why they open it on Canada Day. Then they get 5 days to start and small drops the weekend after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Unless you open a disaster/worldending type action film. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 IO won't have that luck on the weekend after. It will drop hard anyway Yep, Minions is going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 Taking of Pelham 123 had a 100 million dollar budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) I guess we can now pretty much ignore JP4's weekday numbers when it comes to predicting the weekends. It is clearly a weekend movie. Hopefully Universal has the guts to declare $500m total this morning. Edited June 28, 2015 by redfirebird2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) Taking of Pelham 123 had a 100 million dollar budget. Denzel's movies in the past had pretty high budgets. Unstoppable also cost 100M. EDIT: Safe House cost 85M, Deja Vu cost 75M and The Book of Eli cost 80M. Edited June 28, 2015 by CJohn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JennaJ Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think by this time last week we had studio estimates. Is it too close to call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think by this time last week we had studio estimates. Is it too close to call? No, still around an hour from normal Sunday morning reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JennaJ Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 No, still around an hour from normal Sunday morning reports. Oh OK, I'll be patient than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 IO won't have that luck on the weekend after. It will drop hard anyway What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 I guess we can now pretty much ignore JP4's weekday numbers. It is clearly a weekend movie. Hopefully Universal has the guts to declare $500m total this morning. Really? It made 42.8 mill between Monday and Thursday. It'll do 55 this weekend. Other June films: MOS did 17.6 during the same week and made 20 mill on the weekend. Mojo is kind of fucked up right now, but the point is it's weekdays are hardly irrelevant. It did about 77% of the weekend business during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 What? Minions opens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Vision Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Glad Ted flopped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Really? It made 42.8 mill between Monday and Thursday. It'll do 55 this weekend. Other June films: MOS did 17.6 during the same week and made 20 mill on the weekend. Mojo is kind of fucked up right now, but the point is it's weekdays are hardly irrelevant. It did about 77% of the weekend business during the week. Just saying we can't rely on them to figure out the weekend. Seemed it might go under 50 but now it's going to be more like 54-55. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Glad Ted flopped You don't like the Ted movies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
