Prediction: All upcoming summer movies barring Minions and Antman will flop/disappointt

[SchumacherFTW]

Pixels needs strong WOM to pass 200M, no Adam Sandler movie has ever crossed 165M. If a Sandler movie crosses that mark this year, it's probably HT2. His movies simply don't have strong legs. Ant-Man is highly likely to earn 200M at this point and has a chance at surpassing TWS with the way early WOM is.

Sandler movies always have great legs! Even jack and jill got close to a 3 multi!

[Asyulus]

Minions > Rogue Nation > Antman > Pixels >> F4

[DAJK]

Pixels will do more than 150DOM, as well as Rogue Nation. July looks pretty strong in my opinion, I hope August just doesn't suck. Rogue Nation will carry into August and F4 I think will do 125+. Paper Towns will be a hit and I think Vacation has enough as to make it to 100M.

[Asyulus]

This prediction won't happen, as there were some which will be successfull.

[mahnamahna]

Pixels needs strong WOM to pass 200M, no Adam Sandler movie has ever crossed 165M. If a Sandler movie crosses that mark this year, it's probably HT2. His movies simply don't have strong legs. Ant-Man is highly likely to earn 200M at this point and has a chance at surpassing TWS with the way early WOM is.

Waterboy and Big Daddy - $260 to 265 million (adjusted for inflation) 

 

Chris Columbus (all adjusted for inflation) 

Home Alone 1 - $550 million 

Harry Potter 1 - $450 million 

Mrs. Doubtfire - $425 million 

Harry Potter 2 - $365 million

Home Alone 2 - $340 million

NATM 1 - $295-300 million (producer) 

NATM 2 - $190-195 million (producer) 

Stepmom - $150 million 

Nine Months - $130 million 

 

Sandler has never done a film with Chris Columbus, who has a little-known Midas touch when it comes to family-friendly tentpoles.

 

Ant-Man has F4 and MI5 directly targeting its demo, while Pixels has the kid-friendly demo mostly to itself. And unlike Ant-Man, no one is expecting anything from it, so it has a far better chance of breaking out. 

 

Best-case scenario for July 2015 

Minions - $375 million 

Pixels - $250 million 

Ant-Man - $235 million 

Mission Impossible 5 - $215 million 

Trainwreck/Vacation (one of the two) - $145 million 

 

July 2015 is looking to have an epic top 5, with 6-8 also looking solid (Trainwreck/Vacation, Terminator, Paper Towns) enough. MMXXL okay at 9 ($55-65 million DOM) 

Edited July 4, 2015 by mahnamahna

[WrathOfHan]

Waterboy and Big Daddy - $260 to 265 million (adjusted for inflation) 

 

Chris Columbus (all adjusted for inflation) 

Home Alone 1 - $550 million 

Harry Potter 1 - $450 million 

Mrs. Doubtfire - $425 million 

Harry Potter 2 - $365 million

Home Alone 2 - $340 million

NATM 1 - $295-300 million (producer) 

NATM 2 - $190-195 million (producer) 

Stepmom - $150 million 

Nine Months - $130 million 

 

Sandler has never done a film with Chris Columbus, who has a little-known Midas touch when it comes to family-friendly tentpoles.

 

Ant-Man has F4 and MI5 directly targeting its demo, while Pixels has the kid-friendly demo mostly to itself. And unlike Ant-Man, no one is expecting anything from it, so it has a far better chance of breaking out. 

 

Best-case scenario for July 2015 

Minions - $375 million 

Pixels - $250 million 

Ant-Man - $235 million 

Mission Impossible 5 - $215 million 

Trainwreck/Vacation (one of the two) - $145 million 

 

July 2015 is looking to have an epic top 5, with 6-8 also looking solid (Trainwreck/Vacation, Terminator, Paper Towns) enough. MMXXL okay at 9 ($55-65 million DOM) 

 

Fair enough, but I'm still not seeing it earning more than 200M. Also, it's about as kid friendly as Ant-Man given both are PG-13.

[Asyulus]

Pixels could either fall short of $200m, but given that number, still looks incredible.

[Maxmoser3]

Really all that I can see flopping is Self/Less looks interesting but it's expected to be a dud.

Edited July 7, 2015 by Maxmoser3

[Fanboy]

Trainwreck will be a big success. 100M+
Pixels will be a success but I don't see it reaching 150M.
Paper Towns won't be at FIOS level but it should still do okay. 
Southpaw I'm not sure. 
I don't think Rogue Nation will outgross Protocol but it will be close.  
Vacation I think might disappoint, but it could also surprise a la We're The Millers. 
I'm not sure how much Fantastic Four will make, but it will definitely be over 100M. 
The rest are too early to call, however I can see Compton doing well. 

Edited July 9, 2015 by Fanboy

[lilmac]

I keep forgetting about Fantastic Four.

[lilmac]

I don't think Rogue Nation will outgross Protocol but it will be close.  

 

 

I like Protocol's run.  Look at that!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=mi4.htm

[Asyulus]

Rogue Nation will increase from Ghost Protocol, since it increased from M:I-III

[department store basement]

I like Protocol's run.  Look at that!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=mi4.htm

 

Ghost Protocol had such a good run because it was released in December. I imagine Rogue Nation will have worse legs since it is released in July.

[Asyulus]

Ghost Protocol had such a good run because it was released in December. I imagine Rogue Nation will have worse legs since it is released in July.

Worse legs, really no.

Edited July 24, 2015 by DynamiX