Wednesday The Force Awakens Estimates - 28M (Rth) | 27.2 - 27.9 (DHD)

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, tokila said:

Also at what point do we stop looking at JW and TA for any guidance on how TFA trends. TFA has not been behaving like them at all... 

Only the messenger, ... in this case trying to explain what I think BOM meant and I think maybe Marek wasn't sure about.

See me as the Swiss, I do not follow the 'team theory whatever', my passion is the afterwards analyzis (often means 3 years+ later, till the datas for my interest is even available), as in ww and as far financial details meant = all-including: Advertising, merchandising, budget, tax-rebates, accounting-tricks, forgot the word = placement of things, hotel/parks,..., different laws in countries and it's influence on certain movies..... additional costs for which reasons, changes in movies per studio based on who sits in high (usually non-filmmaking) positions,... and  and  and

 

As already pointed out repeatedly:

I think we will see the real pattern earliest next Thursday (next week), at least in a way to see if it will behave like a very big December movie, a summer movie or something in the middle or.... something unseen in total

I am only pretty sure it won't be similar ti Titanic on the long run, as digital / disc purchases/sales/sells (? term) are already 15 march and 8 or 9 (?) April 2016 (discs)

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS update: Domestic ($629M) Int'l ($664M) Worldwide ($1.293B)

 

not sure if a change?

[rustyspoons89]

What is really incredibly about SW's run so far is that even the most pessimistic of estimates... The absolute FLOOR is an incredible number. An 83M 3rd weekend!? That's the FLOOR? The floor of SW is so amazing already, anything over it is just incredible.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wileECoyote]

Walking around Disney World Magic Kingdom.  No surprise but there's a ton of people walking around with Star Wars related stuff like t-shirts, caps, backpacks etc.. 

 

And 5 more days until I get to see it again in the Metreon IMAX!

[POTUS 2020]

29 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

Avengers 3rd weekend drop was -46%, JW had a drop of -48.8%

= I think he meant that as a worst case see $82m

 

He seem to think it will be a better one, see his forecast of $89.82m. That is actually pretty near to what I have thought, but I put a higher one at the third weekend prediction threat for the reason of missing the milestone (but added a comment about it)

A-typical for here it is a betting thread for donations to help to bring up the needed money to run the forum

Not to push, but for to look into what ammounts who wrote down there

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20841-eds-bot-the-force-awakens-3rd-weekend-pool-star-wars-blu-ray-giveaway/?page=1

 

-39.8% was SW 7's 2nd weekend drop... but based on the OW incl. pre-views

He said (bom) 178 last weekend and some of his other predictions have been a bit too far off. I wouldn't put any stock into it

[terrestrial]

15 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

I know, that they were using weekend number with previews, but how can they use same % on weekend withou previews ??

and yes I am aware about JW and Avengers drops.... but well, we are in DECEMBER right ?  why using those?

 

I think out of missing alternatives = beside Avatar the only other extreme blockbuster was Titanic = too far in the past, too many changes in the movie going patterns (including running days)...

 

One of our members here (I try since hours to remember the name, have not the time to seek for it, sear for news for you all, answer... at once especially as my dog is rather very afraid about the fire works...)

found out how near the patterns of SW 7 is to the patterns of LotR TWO (2) as in around x3 (or slightly above)

 

But if that pattern will hold till after the school is on again???? 

It has small discrepancies per day, via other week-days, but seem to be good in the overall pattern.

 

I have major respect for him/her for finding out that one, I looked into LotR 3,... how he/she got the idea to try LotR 2 too... wow.

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, rustyspoons89 said:

What is really incredibly about SW's run so far is that even the most pessimistic of estimates... The absolute FLOOR is an incredible number. An 83M 3rd weekend!? That's the FLOOR? The floor of SW is so amazing already, anything over it is just incredible.

 

Depending on the used calculation model $75m would be the floor, but there are reasons that that might be a tad bit too deep too.

Not saying I think it gets down that deep, but even if, it would still beat the 3rd weekend record... with spares. But it's also fun to follow, guess,... because it is not THAT clear, or?

 

ank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$68,490,688	9.1%	3,461	$19,789	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$55,644,102	8.9%	4,249	$13,096	$623,357,910	5/4/12
3	Jurassic World	Uni.	$54,532,615	8.4%	4,198	$12,990	$652,270,625	6/12/15
4	Spider-Man	Sony	$45,036,912	11.2%	3,615	$12,458	$403,706,375	5/3/02
5	The Dark Knight	WB	$42,664,219	8.0%	4,266	$10,001	$533,345,358	7/18/08

 

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

He said (bom) 178 last weekend and some of his other predictions have been a bit too far off. I wouldn't put any stock into it

 

Everyone makes mistakes in predictions, including to forget details about calendars, weather, sports,... or ... Only bcs of that I wouldn't dismiss him entirely.

Plus BOM and BO.com tend, like we probably all, to be a bit more cautious after overestimating something before.

Too few compareable datas.... tons of fun, as no 'it's all clear and simple' situation. Rollercoaster are seeked for the thrill in RL too, or?

[POTUS 2020]

Just looked at 09 again. The week does play a bit differently when the 1st is on a friday. 

SH had the worst wed to weekend multiplier,

3.6, as it was having burn off. That puts SW7 at 101m.

Avatar had a 3.7

[terrestrial]

Only in case I miss a quote with a question:

I get notifications about people quoting me, as a list of names ~ 'member y, a ,x.... quoted you..'. , but if I click on 'quote' (~ bring me to the post with the quote) the system brings me only to the first named quoter.

No idea what I can do to still find the other quotes beside 'shoveling' through the thread = not meaning to ignore

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Just looked at 09 again. The week does play a bit differently when the 1st is on a friday. 

SH had the worst wed to weekend multiplier,

3.6, as it was having burn off. That puts SW7 at 101m.

Avatar had a 3.7

See, that are too possibilities, but if you mean Sherlock Holmes with SH = that one opened at X-Mas itself (see also chart for opening at X-Mas), means ~ 1 week shorter in relation to drops... not a perfect match

[hasanahmad]

This movie is making 24-26 million on Thursday. @Rth back me up here 

[terrestrial]

Boxoffice.com addition to comment to the Wednesday chart:

Please note that some studios are closed for the holidays and are only reporting estimated grosses. Actuals will be reported on Monday, January 4.

[Dementeleus]

22 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Only in case I miss a quote with a question:

I get notifications about people quoting me, as a list of names ~ 'member y, a ,x.... quoted you..'. , but if I click on 'quote' (~ bring me to the post with the quote) the system brings me only to the first named quoter.

No idea what I can do to still find the other quotes beside 'shoveling' through the thread = not meaning to ignore

 

The system notification will only take you to that direct quote. To make sure you work through the whole thread, just click on the "go to first unread post" dot (or star) to the left of the thread title in forum view, and work your way through. 

[FTF]

14 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

This movie is making 24-26 million on Thursday. @Rth back me up here 

 

Too high, thinking 21-23.

[POTUS 2020]

24 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

See, that are too possibilities, but if you mean Sherlock Holmes with SH = that one opened at X-Mas itself (see also chart for opening at X-Mas), means ~ 1 week shorter in relation to drops... not a perfect match

Yes it opened later, but it was burning off faster than other Xmas openers and holdovers. The point was all movies were 3.6 to 4+ x wed before NYweekend. This multiplier is close to 3x when looking at the average of Monday and Tuesday in 08 and 15 when NYD fell on thursday. It looks like many of the movies skewing older like TBS, sisters, and others will do 4x like 09. I don't see why SW7 doesn't do 3.7 or 3.6 like avatar and SHolmes 

[The Panda]

So in order for TFA to be the highest grossing movie IN 2015, it needs at least 23.3m today.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

The system notification will only take you to that direct quote. To make sure you work through the whole thread, just click on the "go to first unread post" dot (or star) to the left of the thread title in forum view, and work your way through. 

 

doesn't work always

 

after writing a post I have since the forums update to refresh at least twice to even get to see post written between my last one and the next one, especially if there are more than a few.

Tried your method too, can work, but not for sure.

Sometimes it works nearly, but I am ending 1-3 pages wrong.

Might be a hick-up during other posting lengthy lists posts at the same time. Seems also happen more often, if big pictures /.... got posted whilst I was writing.

My biggest problem was I could not edit / shorten quotes since the big upgrade of the forum, have now the newest version of Mozilla, now that works (but I have to 'go over' Mozilla again)

lots of little changes ~ daily, today was better, but lost at least 2 posts and one quote I wanted to do myself

 

no problem, I am guessing in a few days all will be back to normal

 

The-Numbers.com December 30th, 2015:

Two surprising events happened today. Firstly, it was announced that Star Wars: The Force Awakens topped $600 million at the domestic box office yesterday. I wasn't expecting that to happen. I thought it would miss the $600 million mark and cross that milestone today. Secondly, I was surprised that The Force Awakens could still surprise me after every record it has broken so far.

...

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/210670830-Force-Awakens-Destroys-Fastest-to-600-million-Record-The

 

 

Have a great New Years Eve and Day! I have to catch my dog... again. I start to hate fire works

[POTUS 2020]

27 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

This movie is making 24-26 million on Thursday. @Rth back me up here 

With so many so certain that it will be 20 or lower I wouldn't be surprised that it comes in at 24m down 15%.

 

[Dementeleus]

@terrestrial, the best way to quickly delete quotes is to click on the upper-left edge of the quote (you'll see a little square with a + in the middle). The system tends to treat the whole quote as its own discrete entity, not as individual words. 

 

(You may have already figured this out; if so, sorry for the redundancy).

[POTUS 2020]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

doesn't work always

 

after writing a post I have since the forums update to refresh at least twice to even get to see post written between my last one and the next one, especially if there are more than a few.

Tried your method too, can work, but not for sure.

Sometimes it works nearly, but I am ending 1-3 pages wrong.

Might be a hick-up during other posting lengthy lists posts at the same time. Seems also happen more often, if big pictures /.... got posted whilst I was writing.

My biggest problem was I could not edit / shorten quotes since the big upgrade of the forum, have now the newest version of Mozilla, now that works (but I have to 'go over' Mozilla again)

lots of little changes ~ daily, today was better, but lost at least 2 posts and one quote I wanted to do myself

 

no problem, I am guessing in a few days all will be back to normal

 

The-Numbers.com December 30th, 2015:

Two surprising events happened today. Firstly, it was announced that Star Wars: The Force Awakens topped $600 million at the domestic box office yesterday. I wasn't expecting that to happen. I thought it would miss the $600 million mark and cross that milestone today. Secondly, I was surprised that The Force Awakens could still surprise me after every record it has broken so far.

...

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/210670830-Force-Awakens-Destroys-Fastest-to-600-million-Record-The

 

 

Have a great New Years Eve and Day! I have to catch my dog... again. I start to hate fire works

It also says

At this pace, the film is practically guaranteed to reach $700 million over the weekend, breaking the record for fastest to $700 million with ease. This won't be the last record The Force Awakens will break.

Practically guaranteed? Must be a 10-20% chance of an asteroid hitting.