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BOT User Tracking 1/8-10 The Forest, The Masked Saint, The Revenant

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Hopefully I'll get everything back up to date tomorrow, but today's just been too busy. I think other predictors will start coming back around as well now that TFA's totals are slowly falling from absurdly good down merely superlative.


Please provide your 1/8 - 10 Opening Weekend predicts for:


The Forest

The Masked Saint

The Revenant (wide)



Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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Looks like Masked Saint is *not* opening wide, so I'm cutting it out the list. Otherwise, nice to have a more or less "normal" weekend to predict after the last few weeks of insanity. We're shooting low for Forest and I suppose about in the middle for The Revenant.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (13 for The Forest, 14 for The Revenant) and here's what we ended up with:


The Forest

Mean: 8.0M

Median: 8.0M

StnDev: 3.87M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 48.37%

High: 18.2M

Low: 3M


BO.com 8.5M

Deadline 12M

ScreenRant.com 8M  

Variety 10M

Entertainment Weekly


The Revenant

Mean: 24.8M

Median: 24.55M

StnDev: 6.32M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 25.45%

High: 35.7M

Low: 12M


BO.com 30M

Deadline 22M


Variety 20M

Entertainment Weekly

Edited by Wrath
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The Forest

Prediction: 8.0M +/- 3.87M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 12.7M (off by 4.7M, so 1.22 stndev)

Bah. We went low and it overperformed a bit. We had a huge ratio which shepherded our bad result into a merely mediocre one. Shockingly, Deadline was the one who really nailed it. Best predict was by DamienRoc at 10M.


The Revenant

Prediction: 24.8M +/- 6.32M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 39.8M (off by 15.0M, so 2.37 stndev)

Ouch.  Boom. Another movie overperforming, though this time we went kinda in the middle instead of low, as only BO.com predicted above us. Really, though, even they were well short of the mark. That's what we all get for doubting Leo's greatness. Or, perhaps, the film appealed to all audiences: People who love Leo AND People who want to see him mauled by a bear. The Panda was our highest and most accurate predict at 35.7M


Edited by Wrath
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