Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[MinaTakla]

I think this will be between ZOO and THE RED TURLE.

Sony Classics is behind the latter and I think it has a great shot at a WIN not just a nom.

If not, the  ZOO (or Moana) will take this.

[keysersoze123]

Zoo will win. it has great reception and BO.

[AniNate]

It does look like Dory's on its way to "also-ran" status. Moana and Kubo remain possible obstacles.

[cannastop]

I have to say, Moana, Kubo or The Red Turtle are going to have to get really, really good reviews on rotten tomatoes before I'd bet against Zootopia's Oscar.

[CelestialFairyIX]

Certainties: 

- Zootopia: amazing film with an exceptionally timely theme to boot, will definitely receive a nomination and has the highest chances of it winning the award

- Finding Dory: receiving great critical reception, but not on the level of Zootopia and will surely receive a nomination due to its reception, exposure and publicity 

- The Red Turtle: critics from Cannes were RAVING about the film and how spectacular it was and this could fill the usually Ghibli or foreign animated feature spot 

 

Possibilities:

- Kubo and the Two Strings: the Academy LOVES stop-motion and Kubo seems to be one of, if not the most beautiful and thematic of all stop-motion animated features to date

- Moana: Disney is on FIRE after a string of hits beginning with Bolt and have yet to had a rotten apple in their Resurgence Era pantheon, so hopefully Moana will follow suit 

- Kung-Fu Panda 3: overall a solid film and one that truly resonates with the rest of the trilogy

- The Secret Life of Pets: looks to be a solid and great pop-corn film, but may fall short due to how competitive the year is, but no one can judge until the film is actually out

- Sing: I have a feeling this film could surprise many of us... but my gut feelings usually turn out to be wrong

 

And finally...

- The indie flicks nobody sadly cares for 

Edited June 11, 2016 by CelestialFairyIX

[MinaTakla]

On 6/10/2016 at 6:53 PM, cannastop said:

I have to say, Moana, Kubo or The Red Turtle are going to have to get really, really good reviews on rotten tomatoes before I'd bet against Zootopia's Oscar.

THE RED TURTLE won't get under 96% on RT. It's the best animated film I've seen this year, in terms of ambitions and scope and artistry. It can win the Oscar.

MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE is also IO-level amazing

[Jason]

8 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

THE RED TURTLE won't get under 96% on RT. It's the best animated film I've seen this year, in terms of ambitions and scope and artistry. It can win the Oscar.

MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE is also IO-level amazing

There may be a case to be made that The Red Turtle should win the Oscar, but I'm very doubtful that it will. There have been a number of films from smaller/foreign studios that have had >95% on RT, and the only year one of them has won is 2002. Spirited Away is very deserving of that win, but even so I'm not sure it would have if it was up against a domestic competitor that was >95% on RT. (Best of its competitors was Lilo & Stitch at 86%.)

[Kalo]

Zootopia is winning, it just is, Finding Dory; it's only competition is already below it on RT, unless Moana is something unbelievable I can't see anything topping it's chances. those indie/art house animations may be great, maybe even better. but when was the last time any one of them won? they are not excisable enough to win (not with the academy's mindset at the moment anyways) Spirited Away is the only one to win, and even that had a lot of awareness in the states, as well as being distributed by Disney here as well.

[movieboner]

Yup, it's Zootopia vs Finding Dory for the best animated Oscar. They currently have the same reviews on RT and Metacritic, but Zootopia is rated a tiny big higher.

[yjs]

19 hours ago, Kalo said:

Zootopia is winning, it just is, Finding Dory; it's only competition is already below it on RT, unless Moana is something unbelievable I can't see anything topping it's chances. those indie/art house animations may be great, maybe even better. but when was the last time any one of them won? they are not excisable enough to win (not with the academy's mindset at the moment anyways) Spirited Away is the only one to win, and even that had a lot of awareness in the states, as well as being distributed by Disney here as well.

 

This. Not many Oscar voters actually care to even watch most of the screeners..

[yjs]

I'm more curious about the possibility of split votes happening. it's probably the most studio-driven category at the Oscars so while Disney supporters are split between Zoo and Moana all Pixar supporters could unite for Dory's win. After Disney's resurrection Tangled couldn't get a nod in a three-nominees year and would have had no chance against TS3 even if it had gotten one. Brave won over WIR and Frozen won while MU didn't even get a nod and then BH6 and IO took turn. So this would be the two studio's first legitimate big match with both studios having at least one 95% RT movie or even two in their hands.

 

one thing that plays in favor of Disney is that both of its entries are originals while Dory is a sequel. 

but then again, the only sequel that won the same category in history was TS3, from Pixar.

Edited June 17, 2016 by yjs

[Jason]

1 hour ago, yjs said:

I'm more curious about the possibility of split votes happening. it's probably the most studio-driven category at the Oscars so while Disney supporters are split between Zoo and Moana all Pixar supporters could unite for Dory's win.

The Academy should really use instant runoff voting for Best Animated Feature like they do for Best Picture.

[yjs]

3 hours ago, Jason said:

The Academy should really use instant runoff voting for Best Animated Feature like they do for Best Picture.

I didn't know they did preferential balloting only for Best Picture! yeah if that's the case then they should do it for all categories they award a picture, not a person. Especially Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Language Film. 

[Kalo]

13 hours ago, yjs said:

I'm more curious about the possibility of split votes happening. it's probably the most studio-driven category at the Oscars so while Disney supporters are split between Zoo and Moana all Pixar supporters could unite for Dory's win. After Disney's resurrection Tangled couldn't get a nod in a three-nominees year and would have had no chance against TS3 even if it had gotten one. Brave won over WIR and Frozen won while MU didn't even get a nod and then BH6 and IO took turn. So this would be the two studio's first legitimate big match with both studios having at least one 95% RT movie or even two in their hands.

 

one thing that plays in favor of Disney is that both of its entries are originals while Dory is a sequel. 

but then again, the only sequel that won the same category in history was TS3, from Pixar.

 

Tangled not getting nominated was such a massive snub. 

[yjs]

18 minutes ago, Kalo said:

Tangled not getting nominated was such a massive snub. 

 

Yeah, I think Disney's value was still deflated around that time. While the Illusionist was a good movie and I'm glad it got its well-deserving attention and appreciation, it kinda felt like they had to include one novelty arthouse choice at cost of Tangled when there were only very limited three slots to fill.. Stupid nomination rules..! ? could have expanded it to four. 

[Kalo]

33 minutes ago, yjs said:

 

Yeah, I think Disney's value was still deflated around that time. While the Illusionist was a good movie and I'm glad it got its well-deserving attention and appreciation, it kinda felt like they had to include one novelty arthouse choice at cost of Tangled when there were only very limited three slots to fill.. Stupid nomination rules..! ? could have expanded it to four. 

 

They should just do 5 every year. but considering Tangled was my favorite animated film that year, and I liked Despicable Me and How to Train Your Dragon better than Toy Story 3 that year. 

[Gabriel Sales]

I think it unlikely Disney / Pixar name three films to the best animation Oscar, even Zootopia and Finding Dory deserve (The LEGO Movie deserved and was not named). It is most likely that one of the three stand out.

 

I would love that "The Little Prince" received a nomination, I think he deserves for all involved the film, especially after the slutty that Paramount made the film, but apparently the Oscar 2017 will be one of the most disputed of all the times .

[yjs]

21 hours ago, Gabriel Sales said:

I think it unlikely Disney / Pixar name three films to the best animation Oscar, even Zootopia and Finding Dory deserve (The LEGO Movie deserved and was not named). It is most likely that one of the three stand out.

heard that The LEGO Movie not getting the nod is related to it having a 10-min long live-action sequence at the end of the movie, altho it was still not disqualified by that. could call-it a semi-disqualification in the form of not nominating. Technically Disney and Pixar are totally different two studios and it happened commonly that one studio have two nominees in the category so Disney having two and Pixar having one title in the category is still a possibility, but I'm not sure how the fact that the two brands are affiliated would affect their chances.

 

 

Anyways, Dory, with its 95% RT ratings, might stand the best chance it becomes the year's biggest commercial hit and thus stays relevant till February.

Zoo has already..umm..faded a little it seems and it'll be more forgotten by then, especially with Moana's arrival, if that one's also good. 

Nevertheless, Zoo's 98% RT/$340M BO vs. Dory's 95% RT/$450M BO race would be one of the closest ones, if not the closest one ever.

 

Here are some other notable rivalries from the past.

 

(winners in bold)

2001: Shrek 88% RT/$267M BO vs. Monster's Inc 96% RT/$256M BO

2002: Spirited Away 97% RT/$10M BO vs. Lilo & Stitch 86% RT/$146M BO

2004: The Incredibles 97% RT/$261M BO vs. Shrek 2  88% RT/$441M BO

2006: Happy Feet 75% RT/ $198M BO vs. Cars 74% RT/$244M BO

2008: Wall-E 96% RT/$224M BO vs. Kung Fu Panda 86% RT/$215M BO

2011: Rango 87% RT/$123M BO vs. Kung Fu Panda 2 81% RT/$165M BO vs. Puss in Boots 84% RT/$149M BO

2012: Brave 78% RT/$237M BO vs. Wreck-It Ralph 87% RT/$189M BO

2014: Big Hero 6 89% RT/$223M BO vs. How to Train Your Dragon 2 91% RT/$177M BO.

 

So there've been some obvious wins like Ratatouille, Up, Toy Story 3, Frozen and Inside Out. 

Almost every year people suspect that there will be an indie/ghibli rebel situation happening (predicting the wrong indie winners such as Fantastic Mr. Fox or Coraline in Up's year, The Wind Rises in Frozen's year and Anomalisa in Inside Out's year, for example) which actually very rarely happens. Spirited Away is like the sole exception actually, to win over a major studio's well-received hit (Lilo), but while Lilo was still more of a cute, well-made family film SA already had a Berlin Golden Bear. 

 

When it gets tricky is when there are more than two or even three of those impactful nominees from the major studios (2001, 2004, and maybe 2008 and 2014), or when all the nominees both from major and indie studios are just meh to OK mediocrities. (2006, 2011, 2012).

 

This year is definitely in realm of 2001 and 2004. 

For now I'll still give Zoo a slight edge, similarly following the 2004's scenario. 

 

 

 

[yjs]

haven't seen Dory yet but want Zoo to win. Its social themes would help its chances.

[MinaTakla]

Dory doesnt deserve a nom over ZOO, TURTLE or MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE or even PHANTOM BOY.

These 4 other films are way better imo.