Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[cannastop]

Alright, put a fork in it. Zootopia is getting the Oscar.

 

http://blog.afi.com/here-are-the-afi-awards-2016-official-selections/

 

Every animated feature that was on the AFI's annual list also won the Oscar in this category.

[NCsoft]

That is great development for Zootopia indeed.

[Jason]

Well, I do think Zootopia has this in the bag, but I've been compiling a list of the winners of Best Animated Feature Awards from various local critic associations (ten in total), as well as the NBR, OFCS, CCMAs, Golden Globes, Annies, and BAFTA. I wanted to see if there are any predictive patterns among "precursor awards", since this is the first year I've actually been paying attention. The local critic associations I have data for are the ones with existing Wikipedia tables for Best Animated Feature (for my convenience), the list wasn't intended to be exhaustive.

 

Here's a table showing how many of each of the awards matched the Oscar for that year. Some of the awards were introduced more recently than 2001, so the total number of awards for each organization is also shown ("N"). I noticed that most of the critic associations were less likely than the Academy to award Disney films, so the table also shows the number of winning Disney films ("Dis.N", at far right) and the number of those that also won the Oscar ("D.Oscar"). I included all Disney-distributed films as "Disney", including Spirited Away, Howl's Moving Castle, and Frankenweenie. 

 

Quote

Award	Oscars	N	D.Oscar	Dis.N
NBR	10	15	8	11
NYFCC	5	14	4	8
LAFCA	8*	15	4*	4
WAFCA	11	14	8	9
SFFCC	3	7	2	2
DFWFCA	13	15	9	9
SDFCS	5	13	5	8
TFCA	5	13	3	4
CFCA	6	9	5	6
SLFCA	7	12	7	9
FFCC	11	15	9	10
CCMA	12	15	9	11
OFCS	11	15	8	9
Golden Globes	7	10	7	8
Annies	10	15	7	9
BAFTA	9	10	7	7

*This includes Ratatouille, which was co-awarded along with Persepolis.

 

Most notable of the above list is the Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association, which has awarded the eventual Oscar winner 13 out of 15 times, with the exceptions being 2012 and 2014. In 2012 only two of the above organizations awarded Brave, and in 2014 none awarded Big Hero 6. The DFWFCA awards for this year will be on December 13. I'm expecting them to award Zootopia, of course.

 

Here's a table showing each Oscar winner and the number of the above organizations that awarded it as well. The total number of organizations granting the Animated Feature award in each year is shown as "N".

 

Quote

Year	Winner	Awards	N
2001	Shrek	7	8
2002	Spirited Away	8	9
2003	Finding Nemo	8	11
2004	The Incredibles	11	12
2005	Wallace & Gromit	8	11
2006	Happy Feet	6	14
2007	Ratatouille	14*	15
2008	WALL-E	13	15
2009	Up	12	16
2010	Toy Story 3	13	16
2011	Rango	10	15
2012	Brave	2	16
2013	Frozen	9	16
2014	Big Hero 6	0	16
2015	Inside Out	12	16

*This includes the LAFCA Award, which was co-awarded with Persepolis.

 

Brave and Big Hero 6 are the only Oscar winners where other films were awarded by a greater number of the above organizations. In 2012 ParaNorman received seven awards and Wreck-It Ralph received four. In 2014, The Lego Movie received ten awards, HTTYD2 received three, The Tale of Princess Kayuga received two, and Boxtrolls received one.

 

A total of 43 different films have been awarded by the above organizations since 2001. Only five of them did not receive at least an Oscar nomination, and only two that received more than one award were not nominated (The Adventures of Tintin and The Lego Movie).

Edited December 9, 2016 by Jason

[cannastop]

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

Brave and Big Hero 6 are the only Oscar winners where other films were awarded by a greater number of the above organizations. In 2012 ParaNorman received seven awards and Wreck-It Ralph received four. In 2014, The Lego Movie received ten awards, HTTY2 received three, The Tale of Princess Kayuga received two, and Boxtrolls received one.

This might happen again in 2016. Kubo and the Two Strings is popular with the critics.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

This might happen again in 2016. Kubo and the Two Strings is popular with the critics.

 

It might, but I'm guessing that Zootopia will end up with a total number of around 7-9 awards from the above list. Around 2-4 more from the eight remaining local critic associations, plus the CCMAs, Golden Globes, Annies, and BAFTA (which all tend to be more populist). My guess for Kubo is a total of around 4-7 awards, with 2-5 more from the local critic associations.

 

The upcoming awards from the above list that I'm aware of are the SFFCC and CCMAs this Sunday, and the DFWFCA on Tuesday. I'm predicting that the SFFCC will choose Kubo but the others will go for Zootopia.

[yjs]

yeah, think Zootopia pretty much locked this with that AFI win. Its PGA win will be just nail on the coffin for other contenders.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I'm not sure Kubo is out of the running yet, especially if it gets more critical support. But yeah, Zootopia is definitely the front runner. 

[cannastop]

45 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

I'm not sure Kubo is out of the running yet, especially if it gets more critical support. But yeah, Zootopia is definitely the front runner. 

If Kubo does win the Oscar, the awards plunder was split this year like no other.

 

But I wouldn't bet on it, given the Disney bias, and knowing that voters aren't required to watch all of the movies they vote on.

[Jason]

Given the past history of Oscar voting, I think a surprise Moana win is still more likely than Kubo. That's not a knock on Kubo, it's just that the strength of ParaNorman's support among critics in 2012 (it won among a majority of local critic associations) wasn't enough to get it past Brave.

[cannastop]

Just now, Jason said:

Given the past history of Oscar voting, I think a surprise Moana win is still more likely than Kubo. That's not a knock on Kubo, it's just that the strength of ParaNorman's support among critics in 2012 (it won among a majority of local critic associations) wasn't enough to get it past Brave.

I was about to disagree, but then you pointed out Brave.

 

As a separate note, I don't think anyone in the Academy outside of one branch gives a fuck if an animation studio is overdue for an Oscar.

[The Panda]

Kubo, Zootopia and Moana would all be deserving winners.

[BadAtGender]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

I was about to disagree, but then you pointed out Brave.

 

As a separate note, I don't think anyone in the Academy outside of one branch gives a fuck if an animation studio is overdue for an Oscar.

 

There would need to be some hardcore championing from prominent people in the industry in order for an effort from a smaller studio to win, I think. But it seems like the animation branch has collectively taken the view that so long as they're nominating these smaller films, that's good enough.

 

And, really, it might just be. We may want to adjust our view that the more important thing for a film is getting a nomination, not the win, just because the apparent criteria for each are so different. 

 

Nomination: needs extremely high technical achievement and (probably) critical praise.

Win: needs to be something the voter has heard of.

 

 

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Nomination: needs extremely high technical achievement and (probably) critical praise.

Needs to be a well-recieved American production or from a "credible" independent or foreign source.

I think one of the reasons why The Lego Movie got snubbed was because few people in the Branch knew someone who worked on it.

[CelestialFairyIX]

To be placed on the AFI's list of "Movies of the Year" is a great honor for Zootopia.  Only 11 animated features since 2000 have been placed on the list!  

[BadAtGender]

52 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Needs to be a well-recieved American production or from a "credible" independent or foreign source.

I think one of the reasons why The Lego Movie got snubbed was because few people in the Branch knew someone who worked on it.

Boy and the World getting a nom would disagree. 

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Boy and the World getting a nom would disagree. 

That movie was independent and foreign. Held to a different standard than a blockbuster.

[cannastop]

24 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

To be placed on the AFI's list of "Movies of the Year" is a great honor for Zootopia.  Only 11 animated features since 2000 have been placed on the list!  

Oh shit. You just got me to look hard at all of the lists.

 

I didn't realize that there were two animated movies awarded in 2009. Coraline and Up.

 

I've been posting misinformation.

Edited December 10, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

My Life as a Zucchini beats out The Red Turtle for this award.

[SLAM!]

26 minutes ago, cannastop said:

My Life as a Zucchini beats out The Red Turtle for this award.

 

Well, that's legitimately interesting. This race is getting tighter; it'll be a photo finish.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, slambros said:

 

Well, that's legitimately interesting. This race is getting tighter; it'll be a photo finish.

I think it's just an interesting factoid. The European film awards probably have 0 effect on the Oscars.