Chas' Box Office Summer Game | We Have a Winner: Congratulations to DamienRoc on a game well Played. Special mention to darkelf as the runner up and Chewy into 3rd (had a fantastic pre-season score!) | Ya all come for the winter game ya here!

[JJ-8]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really hard to figure out what the heck is gonna make the top 15 this year. It looks like we still only have 4 movies released that will cross 100 (maybe 6 with Central Intelligence and Conjuring 2 if the holds are great after this terrible drop). BFG, Tarzan, and Ice Age all seem highly unlikely to hit the 100 mark, and not even ID4 and Ghostbusters are guaranteed right now. This would be my very revised new top 15 predictions atm:

 

1. Finding Dory - $465m

2. Suicide Squad - $425m

3. Civil War - $410m

4. Pets - $305m

5. Jason Bourne - $195m

6. Apocalypse - $160m

7. Star Trek Beyond - $150m

8. Ghostbusters - $135m

9. Independence Day: $115m

10. Central Intelligence - $110m

11. Angry Birds - $108m

12. Pete's Dragon - $105m

13. The Conjuring 2 - $100m

14. The BFG/TMNT 2/Tarzan/Sausage Party - $80-90m

15. The BFG/TMNT 2/Tarzan/Sausage Party - $80-90m

Agree with most of that. Though I think dory can stretch higher. I'm not convinced suicide squad is going that high.  Closer to 250m is my thoughts. I still think ID4 2 will do a lot better than that but my faith in that film is shaken of late....

[chasmmi]

17 hours ago, Infernus said:

 

@chasmmiJust in case I gave the wrong impression - I am being serious here. The answer to Part 2 Q 2 really is 86.955 and not 86.55. And I did answer 87.

 

i'll double check it tomorrow  

[WrathOfHan]

I've colored in the Dory OWs, and let me just say that the closest predictor could get a Gold score if Disney wasn't lowballing the Sunday drop. Actuals will also determine if some users get points in Pink or no points at all.

 

EDIT: Nile is saying that actuals will be right at or below the estimate, congrats USERNAME REDACTED  

Edited June 20, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[MovieMan89]

Pretty sure I put 128 for it in the game, so close but no cigar. 

[BadAtGender]

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS.

 

1) Will Finding Dory open to more than $90M? YES

2) Will Finding Dory open to more than $105M? 2000 YES

3) Will Finding Dory open to more than $120M? YES

4) Will Finding Dory break the animated OW record? YES

5) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $30M? YES

6) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $40M? NO

7) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $50M? NO

8) How many of Dory's day's will gross more than Central Intelligence's total OW (choose from 0-3)? 3000 2

9) Will Dory Outgross the rest of the top 7 combined over the weekend?  YES

 

10) Will Warcraft finish above NYSM2? NO

11) Will Conjuring have a better percentage drop than XMen? 2000 NO

12) Will Clown have a PTA above $2,200? NO

13) What day will Civil War pass $400m?  YES

14) Will Jungle Book have a PTA above $1,400? YES

15) Will Angry Birds stay above Alice 2? NO

16) Will Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles have the lowest Weekend drop out of last weekend's top 5 films? 3000 NO

17) Will Neighbours 2 stay above Love and Friendship? NO

 

18) Will Te3n increase? Not Listed

19) Will Popstar drop more than 72.5%? 3000 YES

20) Will Warcraft WW overtake Civil War Domestic by the end of the weekend? Currently no, but intl. might not have been updated yet

21) Will Nice Guys increase more than 85% on Friday? NO

22) Will any film in the top 10 drop less than 22% on Sunday? 2000 YES

23) Will Neighbours 2 pass $55m domestic by the end of the weekend? NO

24) We me before You gross double Civil War this weekend? NO

25) Are people going to Blindly like Finding Dory the same way they inexplicably to Nemo? I guess

 

Bonuses

 

18/25 - 2000

19/25 - 4000

20/25 - 6000

21/25 - 9000

22/25 - 12000

23/25 - 15000

24/25 - 20000

25/25 - 25000

 

Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS

 

1. What will be the difference in gross between Finding Dory's OW and Shrek 2's OW? $27,022,395

2. What will Conjuring's percentage drop be? 63.2%

3. What will Warcraft's WW total be by the end of the WW? Currently $378,412,014, but unsure if intl is fully updated.

 

 

Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given.  (2000 per film)

 

3. The Conjuring 2

5. Warcraft

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

10. Captain America: Civil War

13. Zootopia

15. Love & Friendship

 

Bonuses:

 

3/6 ~ 2000 points

4/6 ~ 5000 points

5/6 ~ 9000 points

6/6 ~ 15000 points 

[WrathOfHan]

In a twist turn of events, the closest predictor has changed from Jayhawk to DamienRoc!

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

A look at some preseasons and SOTMs:
 

11. Yes

13. Yes. Warcraft might not cross 50M

18. Decent chance this is a Yes due to Warcraft but nothing certain yet.

 

Dory:

 

1. Yes

2. Yes

3. Yes

4. Yes (unless it has really bad legs which it won't)

5. Yes (again, unless legs suck)

 

CBM:

 

5. No. It's practically impossible to beat IM3 now.

 

SOTM 2: Me Before You is Higher. NYSM will be very close.

 

[chasmmi]

SOTM3  will continue next weekend not this one, just to give the semi finalists a break. 

 

WIll try to get some marking done again over the weekend if not before.

 

Gives some of you time to enter a song list

[Infernus]

On 6/23/2016 at 6:30 AM, chasmmi said:

SOTM3  will continue next weekend not this one, just to give the semi finalists a break. 

 

WIll try to get some marking done again over the weekend if not before.

 

Gives some of you time to enter a song list

 

But who are they and what are the bouts for the semi finals?

[chasmmi]

Very good questions, the answer in for most cases probably the same as they are for the provisional scores and the bracket is as shown.

 

I will confirm it all by Sunday though, I promise  

[Infernus]

Btw, looking at the Independence day SOTM, I tried to give the correct answer for all the questions, wanted to play it safe. Didnt realize the buzz in america was nonexistent and that there had been no critic screenings since I did it hastily at the last moment. Anyways if things do go on as they seem to be and a even slightly similar performance follows in other nations I might as well be able to get every single one of my answers wrong. Which would be downright embarrassing but oh so good! of course if even one of them ends up correct I'll be totally doomed.

 

Still can't believe the sequel to a film that made 300m Dom and 800m WW in frickin' '96 may not even pass 150m Dom and 600 WW. Espcially after what JW achieved last year. I never expected an improvement like that but it should have atleast matched what its predecessor did 20 years ago!

Edited June 24, 2016 by Infernus

[WrathOfHan]

Estimated answers:

 

1) Will IDR open to more than $40M? Yes

2) Will IDR open to more than $50M? 2000 No

3) Will IDR open to more than $60M? No

4) Will Dory make more than $57.5M? Yes

5) Will Dory make more than $65M? Yes

6) Will Dory make more than $72.5M? Yes

7) Will IDR finish above Dory? 3000

 

8) Will Free State of Jones Finish above The Shallows? No

9) Will Neon Demon open in the top 7?  2000 No

10) Will Central Intelligence drop more than 50%? No

11) Will Warcraft stay above XMen? No

12) Will Turtles stay above Alice? Yes

13) Will Me Before You have a PTA above $1150? 3000 Yes

14) Will Swiss Army Man have a PTA above $3,500? Yes

 

15) Will Angry Birds stay above Zootopia? 2000 Yes

16) Will NYSM2 stay in the top 8? Yes

17) Will The Conjuring finish above Neon Demon? Yes

18) Will Jungle Book Remain in the top 15? Yes

19) Will 3 new entries be in the top 4? 3000 No

20) Is Will Smith going to save the world this weekend? The fish did, sorry CJohn

 

Bonuses

 

15/20 - 2000

16/20 - 4000

17/20 - 6000

18/20 - 9000

19/20 - 12000

20/20 - 15000

 

Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS

 

1. What will Free State of Jones' OW be? $7,772,000

2. What will be the difference between IDR and FD's weekend totals? $31,634,746

3. What will Warcraft's percentage drop be? 70.6%

 

 

Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given.  (2000 per film)

 

1. Finding Dory

4. The Shallows

7. Now You See Me

10. Alice

13. Captain America

15. The Neon Demon 

 

Bonuses:

 

3/6 ~ 2000 points

4/6 ~ 5000 points

5/6 ~ 9000 points

6/6 ~ 15000 points 

[MovieMan89]

Damn, screwed up that Swiss Army PTA for some dumb reason, otherwise would be perfect week if nothing changes. Only missed Neon Demon on part 3. 

[chasmmi]

SOTM and Weekly questions up.

 

Sorry for the lack of marking, blame Euro 2016

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

 

 

[narniadis]

well we just wont talk about that....

[chasmmi]

SOTM 3 Semi-final draw

 

Semi-Finals

 

Exdee vs Dajk

Infernus vs 24Lost

 

Questions

 

1. BFG OW

2. Shallow percentage Change

3. Warcraft PTA

4. Xmen Sunday Gross

5. Dory Saturday percentage change

[WrathOfHan]

Estimated answers:

 

1. Will Dory Threepeat this weekend? 2000 Yes

2. Will Independence Day hold on to 2nd place? 3000 No

3. Will BFG make more than $21.5M? No

4. Will BFG make more than $27.5M? No

5. Will BFG make more than $35M? No

6. Will Legend of Tarzan open above Purge? Yes

7. Will at least two out of the three main new entries make more than $20M? Yes

 

8. Will The Purge have a higher PTA than Independence Day? 2000 Yes

9. Will Free State of Jones finish above The Conjuring? Yes

10. Will Alice have a larger Percentage drop than ME Before You? Yes

11. Will Finding DOry Overtake Jungle Book's Domestic total by the end of the weekend? Yes

12. Will Swiss Army Man enter the top 18 this weekend? Yes

13. Will Xmen finish above TMNT2? 3000 Yes

14. Will NYSM2 have the best percentage drop in the top 12? No

 

15. Will Warcraft fall below Civil War this weekend? Yes

16. Will Central Intelligence have a Saturday increase above 25%? No

17. Will at least 8 of the top 12 increase on Sunday? 3000 No

18. Will any film increase 100% on Friday? Yes

19. How many different films will win a day this weekend? 2000 2

20. IF there was a Purge in the Pixar multiverse, who or what would be the first on your hitlist? EVERYONNNNEEE!

 

14/20 - 2000

15/20 - 3000

16/20 - 5000

17/20 - 7000

18/20 - 9000

19/20 - 12000

20/20 - 15000

 

Part 2

 

1. What will Independence Day's percentage drop be this weekend? 5000 59.8%

2. How many films increase on Sunday this weekend (out of every film in release)? 5000 3

3. How much will BFG make on Sunday? 5000 $6,371,014

 

Part 3

 

2. Tarzan

4. The BFG

8. Free State of Jones

11. Swiss Army Man

14. Me Before You

16. TMNT

 

3/6 - 2000

4/6 - 5000

5/6 - 9000

6/6 - 13000

[WrathOfHan]

A general look at where the preseasons are (some are repeats from the past):

 

6. Can't say for certain although this looks like Yes. Four movies will need to get over 72M on OW for this to be No.

10. Yes. Really, what hasn't dropped more than 33% from their predecessor?  

11. Yes. Warcraft and CW both made over 150M.

12. Yes. Three different animated movies winning a weekend hasn't happened yet but we all know SLOP will win next weekend.

13. Yes. Warcraft had a 160M budget and won't cross 60M let alone 50M.

17. Yes. X-Men dropped 65.3% which surpasses the 64% the question needed.

19. 1 (CW, Dory, Mike and Dave, Popstar). It's impossible for any of the other options to beat the 900M+ of that one:

 

2. X-Men and Alice combine to around 230M right now. Star Trek and Sausage Party cannot make 670M combined.

3. Assuming a 100M finish for Tarzan, the total of this one would be 290M (55M on Neighbors, 50M on Warcraft, 85M for TMNT)

4. Bourne and Pets would need to make 335M+ EACH because The Conjuring will finish slightly above 100M and CI will finish somewhere between 120-140M.

 

20. Anyone who answered Option 3 will get Abstain points as Space Between Us got moved to December.

 

JJ's:

 

Dory:

 

1. Yes. SLOP cannot break that new record.

2. Yes.

3. Yes.

4. Yes. It'll cross 400M on Friday most likely.

5. Yes. 

7. No. It's performing too poorly overseas to beat Frozen's WW total.

 

 

SOTM 2 can probably be scored next weekend, we just need to see if The Shallows can end up as double. NYSM will end up Higher unless it collapses immediately and The Purge will end up as Higher with no chance at being Double. 

 

SOTM 6 can most likely be scored next weekend; we're just waiting for Japan.

[Wrath]

I was pretty sure my Top 15 was dead and buried. But Tarzan and, if Im dreaming big, BFG, making the top 15 would seriously save it.

 

Go, you lovable giant and ape-man duo, GO!