grey ghost Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 (edited) My latest prediction: 1) Finding Dory 460 2) Civil War 405 3) Secret Life of Pets 340 4) Suicide Squad 275 5) X-men Apocalypse 155 6) Jason Bourne 150 7) Star Trek 140 8) Central Intelligence 130 9) Legend of Tarzan 125 10) Angry Birds 105 11) The Conjuring 2 100 12) Independence Day 100 13) Ghostbusters 90 14) Ninja Turtles 2 80 15) Purge 80 Unless Sausage Party and/or Pete's Dragon surprise and make over 80 m by Labor Day. Edited July 31, 2016 by grey ghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 (edited) Dunno if this has been pointed out but it's gonna be the first year when a pre-summer release will technically have made enough money during the summer to qualify for the top 15. The Jungle Book has made $99m starting from May 6. Edited July 31, 2016 by Jake Gittes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 We could actually end up with the entire top 15 over 100 after all in the game. 13 are locked now, and I'd say Pete has a pretty good shot. That leaves Bad Moms or Sausage Party to have to get there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 9 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: We could actually end up with the entire top 15 over 100 after all in the game. 13 are locked now, and I'd say Pete has a pretty good shot. That leaves Bad Moms or Sausage Party to have to get there. Bad Moms? You think it still has chance at 100 after a 23.5m OW? I cant see it going over 70m Sausage Party seems to silly an original film to breakout. I doubt it reaches even close to a 100m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, Infernus said: Bad Moms? You think it still has chance at 100 after a 23.5m OW? I cant see it going over 70m Sausage Party seems to silly an original film to breakout. I doubt it reaches even close to a 100m I totally agree on Bad Moms. It had some hype and a nice Friday (and Mrs Wrath saw it and thought it was great), but after that Saturday drop its pretty unlikely to hit 100M. On the other hand, Sausage Party is definitely *not* a 4-quadrant film, but its got some good buzz. I wouldn't say its likely to break 100M, but I would say its got a shot. However, its working with a handicap of releasing so late. Sure, its first couple weekends will make the most money, but the end of the competition isn't that far away. I wouldn't be surprised if 10-15% of Sausage Party's total domestic BO comes after the end of the competition. It could end up making 115-120M but still fall short of 100M for the purposes of the game. Edited August 1, 2016 by Wrath 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 Yeah BM has like a 5% chance realistically, but Sausage Party is a total wildcard. Could be bigger than the biggest of predictions or tank or something in the middle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Yeah BM has like a 5% chance realistically, but Sausage Party is a total wildcard. Could be bigger than the biggest of predictions or tank or something in the middle. Totally agree. Personally I'm on the 100m bandwagon. It's why it made my top 15 as crap as my 15 is of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 1, 2016 Author Share Posted August 1, 2016 Finally got the weekly and SOTM up: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 1, 2016 Author Share Posted August 1, 2016 On 7/31/2016 at 9:32 PM, Infernus said: Most probably last time at the top for me, seeing how I missed another weekly. I hope the SOTMs continue supporting me. Is there any big points SOTM left to be scored? A lot of people ended up participating in SOTM 10 (the horrible one with -25k for abstain). That might shuffle up the standings quite a bit. THe Fantasy SOTM will bring big points for some players, the lowballing one also can have big swings. THere is a fair amount of swing potential left. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 Gonna try a scrappy marking of Week 11: 1. Will Ghostbusters open below $60M? YES 2. Will Ghostbusters open below $50M? 2000 YES 3. Will Ghostbusters open below $40M? 3000 NO 4. Will Ghostbusters open below $30M? NO 5. Will the Infiltrator reach $6M by the end of the weekend? YES 6. Will the Infiltrator reach $9M by the end of the weekend? NO 7. Will the Infiltrator reach $12M by the end of the weekend? NO 8. Will Secret Life of pets make more than $50M this weekend? YES 9. Will SLOP's weekend gross make more than both openers combined Sunday cumulative totals? 3000 NO 10. Will Purge stay above Central Intelligence? 2000 YES 11. Will Tarzan pass $100M by Saturday? NO 12. Will BFG finish above Independence Day? YES 13. Will The Shallows cross $50M domestic total? YES 14. Will Tarzan overtake Conjuring 2's Domestic total by the end of the weekend? YES 15. Will the Hilary Clinton documentary thing have a PTA above $4,500? YES 16. Will Our Kind of Traitor finish in the top 12? NO 17. Will Sultan drop more than 55% this weekend? NO 18. Will NYSM2 have a PTA above $1,000? YES 19. Will Mike and Dave have a larger percentage drop than Free State of Jones NO 20. How many shits is Bill Murray going to give I his Ghostbusters cameo? I HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE OF WEEKS STILL TO FIND OUT 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 4000 16/20 - 6000 17/20 - 8000 18/20 - 10000 19/20 - 15000 20-20 - 20000 Part 2 1. What will Ghostbusters OW be? 5000 $46.02M 2. What will SLOP percentage drop be? 51.3% 3. What will be the PTA of BFG? $1,737 Part 3 3. TARZAN 6. PURGE 8. INFILTRATOR 10. IDR 13. CONJURING 16. JUNGLE BOOK 3/6 - 2000 4/6 - 5000 5/6 - 8000 6/6 - 12000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 THATONEGUY - 19000 + 0 + 18000 = 37000 TELE - 15000 + 0 + 0 = 15000 WRATHOFHAN - 17000 + 0 + 8000 = 25000 BLANKMENTS - 19000 + 0 + 4000 = 23000 DAJK - 24000 + 0 + 4000 = 28000 MOVIEMAN - 26000 + 0 + 2000 = 28000 KAYU - 19000 + 0 + 13000 = 32000 SIMIONSKI - 20000 + 5000 + 8000 = 33000 JJ99 - 27000 + 0 + 13000 = 40000 JAKEGITTES - 22000 + 6000 + 13000 = 41000 GREYGHOST - 21000 + 0 + 2000 = 23000 DARKELF - 28000 + 0 + 2000 = 30000 BCF - 19000 + 0 + 8000 = 27000 GLASSFAIRY - 21000 + 0 + 0 = 21000 EXXDEE - 26000 + 5000 + 8000 = 39000 CHASMMI - 31000 + 0 + 4000 = 35000 24LOST - 29000 + 0 + 13000 = 42000 WRATH - 25000 + 0 + 13000 = 38000 LAGUY - 20000 + 0 + 4000 = 24000 JJ8 - 21000 + 0 + 4000 = 25000 CHEWY - 14000 + 0 + 8000 = 22000 DAMIENROC - 33000 + 0 + 8000 = 41000 BAUMER - 24000 + 0 + 4000 = 28000 (Fun Fact, JJ8 missed the BFG bonus by 3 dollars ) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 It's impossible for me to mark Week 12 with my holiday computer set up and I worry it will confuse poor JJ to jump to week 13 now, so I will try to get a couple of SOTM's marked if I can (I am using a pen and paper with a laptop for this ). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 The Final scores for SOTM3: Thought I would update how the scores for SOTM3 are looking with just 8 players left in the mix Current points scored for SOTM 3: Exxdee 66000 24lost 44000 Infernus 32000 Dajk 28000 Darkelf 27000 Wrath 25000 Chasmmi 22000 Chewy 21000 JJ99 14000 Narniadis 14000 Simionski 14000 Movieman 13000 JJ8 11000 HeyitsMoses 11000 kayumanggi 11000 Damienroc 10000 Glassfairy 8000 Tele 7000 The Panda 7000 Ed 6000 Cmasterclay 6000 bcf 6000 Wrathofhan 5000 That One Guy 5000 greyghost 5000 Jakegittes 5000 Blank Panther 3000 Maxmoser 0 Mikehunt 0 Films 0 Baumer 0 Jayhawk 0 Dexter 0 Tree trunk 0 Firedeep 0 LAGUy 0 Alpha 0 Kalo 0 Empire 0 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 Current totals for each film on SOTM5 Finding Dory - 93000 Suicide Squad - 0 Jason Bourne - 12000 Independence Day - 20000 Life of Pets - 59000 Star Trek Beyond - 21000 Ghostbusters - 21000 Warcraft - 9000 Central Intelligence - 25000 Ice Age - 8000 BFG - 10000 Pete's Dragon - 0 The Conjuring 2 - 20000 Tarzan - 24000 Bad Moms - 5000 Free State of Jones - 4000 Sausage Party - 0 Purge - 15000 Now You See Me 2 - 12000 Lights Out - 8000 Mike and Dave 8000 Shallows - 10000 The Infiltrator - 2000 Nine Lives - 0 I think right now the best choice is: SLOP Central Intelligence Conjuring Tarzan Purge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 My choices were SLOP, Star Trek, Conjuring, and Sausage Party; the first three combined are ahead of Dory's total Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 For SOTM7, Independence Day is definitely not passing Daisy, as for Dory, it will pass Phantom Menace for Superman looks too far at another 23M after a $4.3M weekend. So I will mark as if it will pass TPM but not Superman with a caveat that the scores might change if Dory's late legs keep chugging along, I'll also bolt on the bonus score after the weekend (I will write Yes/No after each score to show what each player predicted) : Tele - Minus 22,000 NO wrathofhan - 28,000 YES Thatoneguy - Minus 22,000 YES Blank - Minus 6000 YES Movieman - Minus 22,000 YES JakeGittes - 28000 YES Infernus - 28000 YES Panda - 28000 YES Narnia - 32,000 NO Baumer - 28,000 NO JJ8 - 17,000 NO Simionski - 25,000 YES Chasmmi - 20,000 NO Kayu - 28,000 YES Exxdee - 24,000 YES Glassfairy - 24,000 NO Darkelf - 28,000 YES Wrath - 24,000 YES Damienroc - 17,000 NO 24Lost - 13,000 YES BCF - 17,000 NO Laguy - 24,000 NO Chewy - 28,000 YES JJ99 - 24,000 YES 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: My choices were SLOP, Star Trek, Conjuring, and Sausage Party; the first three combined are ahead of Dory's total You chose well... although potentially not as well as: Life of Pets - 8000 Central Intelligence - 4000 The Conjuring 2 - 3000 Sausage Party - 2000 Purge - 2000 Shallows - 1000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 None of the other SOTMs are markable I believe. If anyone is brave enough to mark the week 11 weekly questions, then I can move on to 12 and 13 soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 (edited) Ugh, I legit hate my SOTMs this year. Killing me. Edited August 3, 2016 by MovieMan89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...