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[grey ghost]

My latest prediction:

 

1) Finding Dory 460
2) Civil War 405
3) Secret Life of Pets 340
4) Suicide Squad 275
5) X-men Apocalypse 155
6) Jason Bourne 150
7) Star Trek 140 
8) Central Intelligence 130
9) Legend of Tarzan 125
10) Angry Birds 105
11) The Conjuring 2 100
12) Independence Day 100
13) Ghostbusters 90
14) Ninja Turtles 2  80
15) Purge 80

Unless Sausage Party and/or Pete's Dragon surprise and make over 80 m by Labor Day.

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2016 by grey ghost

[Jake Gittes]

Dunno if this has been pointed out but it's gonna be the first year when a pre-summer release will technically have made enough money during the summer to qualify for the top 15. The Jungle Book has made $99m starting from May 6.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Jake Gittes

[MovieMan89]

We could actually end up with the entire top 15 over 100 after all in the game. 13 are locked now, and I'd say Pete has a pretty good shot. That leaves Bad Moms or Sausage Party to have to get there. 

[Infernus]

9 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

We could actually end up with the entire top 15 over 100 after all in the game. 13 are locked now, and I'd say Pete has a pretty good shot. That leaves Bad Moms or Sausage Party to have to get there. 

 

Bad Moms? You think it still has chance at 100 after a 23.5m OW? I cant see it going over 70m

 

Sausage Party seems to silly an original film to breakout. I doubt it reaches even close to a 100m

[Wrath]

4 hours ago, Infernus said:

 

Bad Moms? You think it still has chance at 100 after a 23.5m OW? I cant see it going over 70m

 

Sausage Party seems to silly an original film to breakout. I doubt it reaches even close to a 100m

I totally agree on Bad Moms. It had some hype and a nice Friday (and Mrs Wrath saw it and thought it was great), but after that Saturday drop its pretty unlikely to hit 100M.

 

On the other hand, Sausage Party is definitely *not* a 4-quadrant film, but its got some good buzz. I wouldn't say its likely to break 100M, but I would say its got a shot. However, its working with a handicap of releasing so late. Sure, its first couple weekends will make the most money, but the end of the competition isn't that far away. I wouldn't be surprised if 10-15% of Sausage Party's total domestic BO comes after the end of the competition. It could end up making 115-120M but still fall short of 100M for the purposes of the game.

Edited August 1, 2016 by Wrath

[MovieMan89]

Yeah BM has like a 5% chance realistically, but Sausage Party is a total wildcard. Could be bigger than the biggest of predictions or tank or something in the middle. 

[JJ-8]

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah BM has like a 5% chance realistically, but Sausage Party is a total wildcard. Could be bigger than the biggest of predictions or tank or something in the middle. 

Totally agree. Personally I'm on the 100m bandwagon. It's why it made my top 15 as crap as my 15 is of course

[chasmmi]

Finally got the weekly and SOTM up:

 

 

[chasmmi]

On 7/31/2016 at 9:32 PM, Infernus said:

Most probably last time at the top for me, seeing how I missed another weekly. I hope the SOTMs continue supporting me. Is there any big points SOTM left to be scored? A lot of people ended up participating in SOTM 10 (the horrible one with -25k for abstain). That might shuffle up the standings quite a bit.

 

THe Fantasy SOTM will bring big points for some players, the lowballing one also can have big swings. THere is a fair amount of swing potential left. 

[chasmmi]

Gonna try a scrappy marking of Week 11:

 

1. Will Ghostbusters open below $60M? YES

2. Will Ghostbusters open below $50M? 2000 YES

3. Will Ghostbusters open below $40M? 3000 NO

4. Will Ghostbusters open below $30M? NO

5. Will the Infiltrator reach $6M by the end of the weekend? YES

6. Will the Infiltrator reach $9M by the end of the weekend? NO

7. Will the Infiltrator reach $12M by the end of the weekend? NO

 

8. Will Secret Life of pets make more than $50M this weekend? YES

9. Will SLOP's weekend gross make more than both openers combined Sunday cumulative totals? 3000 NO

10. Will Purge stay above Central Intelligence? 2000 YES

11. Will Tarzan pass $100M by Saturday? NO

12. Will BFG finish above Independence Day? YES

13. Will The Shallows cross $50M domestic total? YES

14. Will Tarzan overtake Conjuring 2's Domestic total by the end of the weekend? YES

 

15. Will the Hilary Clinton documentary thing have a PTA above $4,500? YES

16. Will Our Kind of Traitor finish in the top 12?  NO

17. Will Sultan drop more than 55% this weekend? NO

18. Will NYSM2 have a PTA above $1,000? YES

19. Will Mike and Dave have a larger percentage drop than Free State of Jones NO

20. How many shits is Bill Murray going to give I his Ghostbusters cameo? I HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE OF WEEKS STILL TO FIND OUT

 

14/20 - 2000

15/20 - 4000

16/20 - 6000

17/20 - 8000

18/20 - 10000

19/20 - 15000

20-20 - 20000

 

Part 2

 

1. What will Ghostbusters OW be? 5000  $46.02M

2. What will SLOP percentage drop be? 51.3% 

3. What will be the PTA of BFG? $1,737

 

Part 3

 

3. TARZAN

6. PURGE

8. INFILTRATOR

10. IDR

13. CONJURING

16.  JUNGLE BOOK

 

3/6 - 2000

4/6 - 5000

5/6 - 8000

6/6 - 12000

 

[chasmmi]

THATONEGUY - 19000 + 0 + 18000 = 37000

TELE - 15000 + 0 + 0 = 15000

WRATHOFHAN - 17000 + 0 + 8000 = 25000

BLANKMENTS - 19000 + 0 + 4000 = 23000

DAJK - 24000 + 0 + 4000 = 28000

MOVIEMAN - 26000 + 0 + 2000 = 28000

 

KAYU - 19000 + 0 + 13000 = 32000

SIMIONSKI - 20000 + 5000 + 8000 = 33000

JJ99 - 27000 + 0 + 13000 = 40000

JAKEGITTES - 22000 + 6000 + 13000 = 41000

GREYGHOST - 21000 + 0 + 2000 = 23000

DARKELF - 28000 + 0 + 2000 = 30000

 

BCF - 19000 + 0 + 8000 = 27000

GLASSFAIRY - 21000 + 0 + 0 = 21000

EXXDEE - 26000 + 5000 + 8000 = 39000

CHASMMI - 31000 + 0 + 4000 = 35000

24LOST - 29000 + 0 + 13000 = 42000

WRATH - 25000 + 0 + 13000 = 38000

 

LAGUY - 20000 + 0 + 4000 = 24000

JJ8 - 21000 + 0 + 4000 = 25000

CHEWY - 14000 + 0 + 8000 = 22000

DAMIENROC - 33000 + 0 + 8000 = 41000

BAUMER - 24000 + 0 + 4000 = 28000

 

(Fun Fact, JJ8 missed the BFG bonus by 3 dollars  )

 

 

[chasmmi]

It's impossible for me to mark Week 12 with my holiday computer set up and I worry it will confuse poor JJ to jump to week 13 now, so I will try to get a couple of SOTM's marked if I can (I am using a pen and paper with a laptop for this  ).

[chasmmi]

The Final scores for SOTM3:

 

Thought I would update how the scores for SOTM3 are looking with just 8 players left in the mix 

 

Current points scored for SOTM 3:

 

Exxdee 66000

24lost 44000

Infernus 32000

Dajk 28000

 

Darkelf 27000

Wrath 25000

Chasmmi 22000

Chewy 21000

 

JJ99 14000

Narniadis 14000

Simionski 14000

Movieman 13000

 

JJ8 11000

HeyitsMoses 11000

kayumanggi 11000

Damienroc 10000

 

Glassfairy 8000

Tele 7000

The Panda 7000

Ed 6000

 

Cmasterclay 6000

bcf 6000

Wrathofhan 5000

That One Guy 5000

 

greyghost 5000

Jakegittes 5000

Blank Panther 3000

 

Maxmoser 0

Mikehunt 0

Films 0

Baumer 0

Jayhawk 0

Dexter 0

 

Tree trunk 0

Firedeep 0

LAGUy 0

Alpha 0

Kalo 0

Empire 0

 

[chasmmi]

Current totals for each film on SOTM5

 

Finding Dory - 93000

Suicide Squad - 0 

Jason Bourne - 12000

Independence Day - 20000

Life of Pets - 59000

Star Trek Beyond - 21000

 

Ghostbusters - 21000

Warcraft - 9000

Central Intelligence - 25000

Ice Age - 8000

BFG - 10000

Pete's Dragon - 0

 

The Conjuring 2 - 20000

Tarzan - 24000

Bad Moms - 5000

Free State of Jones - 4000

Sausage Party - 0

Purge - 15000

 

Now You See Me 2 - 12000

Lights Out - 8000

Mike and Dave 8000

Shallows - 10000

The Infiltrator - 2000

Nine Lives - 0

 

I think right now the best choice is:

 

SLOP

Central Intelligence

Conjuring

Tarzan

Purge

[WrathOfHan]

My choices were SLOP, Star Trek, Conjuring, and Sausage Party; the first three combined are ahead of Dory's total  

[chasmmi]

For SOTM7, Independence Day is definitely not passing Daisy, as for Dory, it will pass Phantom Menace for Superman looks too far at another 23M after a $4.3M weekend. 

 

So I will mark as if it will pass TPM but not Superman with a caveat that the scores might change if Dory's late legs keep chugging along, I'll also bolt on the bonus score after the weekend (I will write Yes/No after each score to show what each player predicted) :

 

Tele - Minus 22,000 NO

wrathofhan - 28,000 YES

Thatoneguy - Minus 22,000 YES

Blank - Minus 6000 YES

Movieman - Minus 22,000 YES

 

JakeGittes - 28000 YES

Infernus - 28000 YES

Panda - 28000 YES

Narnia - 32,000 NO

Baumer - 28,000 NO

 

JJ8 - 17,000 NO

Simionski - 25,000 YES

Chasmmi - 20,000 NO

Kayu - 28,000 YES

Exxdee - 24,000 YES

 

Glassfairy - 24,000 NO

Darkelf - 28,000 YES

Wrath - 24,000 YES

Damienroc - 17,000 NO

24Lost - 13,000 YES

 

BCF - 17,000 NO

Laguy - 24,000 NO

Chewy - 28,000  YES

JJ99 - 24,000 YES

 

 

[chasmmi]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

My choices were SLOP, Star Trek, Conjuring, and Sausage Party; the first three combined are ahead of Dory's total  

 

You chose well... although potentially not as well as:

 

Life of Pets - 8000

Central Intelligence - 4000

The Conjuring 2 - 3000

Sausage Party - 2000

Purge - 2000

Shallows - 1000

 

 

[chasmmi]

None of the other SOTMs are markable I believe. 

 

If anyone is brave enough to mark the week 11 weekly questions, then I can move on to 12 and 13 soon  

[MovieMan89]

Ugh, I legit hate my SOTMs this year. Killing me. 

Edited August 3, 2016 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]