Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[POTUS 2020]

41 minutes ago, abra said:

And some big local movies are coming out ? 

The last two years a couple of midsized movies came out. Don't what is coming this year. @Olivemight know what is releasing May Day weekend 

[Lihongkim]

1 hour ago, abra said:

And some big local movies are coming out ? 

2017 BIFF's opening film "This Is Not What I Expected"

Huang Bo's "Battle of Memories"

Andy Lau's "Shocked Wave"

 

Huang Bo's movie will be a winner. 

Edited April 5, 2017 by Lihongkim

[POTUS 2020]

On Tuesday, April 04, 2017 at 9:23 AM, POTUS said:

No. Slowing down to 15-25% daily after the first few days is what WC BATB and Kong did. Was up 35% on Monday. Looking for it to hug 20% thru next Monday.  Thinking it's daily % increases  will fall between Kong and WC

                               Revised 

Tonight 13.5            14.5 +27%

W   16 +20%             19.5 +27%

Th  19 +20%             24.0 +22%

F    23.7 +20%          29.2 +22%

S    27.4  +20            35.2 +22%

S    32.8  +20            42.9 +22%

M   41  +25%            53.6 +25%

T    53  +30%            71.6 +30%

W   70  +40%         100.0 +40%

Th 119 +70%         160.0 +60%

 

 

160m? Really?  480m OD? Possible?

I'm trying to be conservative. It's not slowing down. FF7 did 347m on a sunday with half the seats.

OD 350-480m keeping the low end of the range in place in case of big slow down

OW 1.1B - the sky

 

SW7 all time record weekend ¥1711m 

Just sayin'

 

 

Edited April 5, 2017 by POTUS

[peludo]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

160m? Really?  480m OD? Possible?

I'm trying to be conservative. It's not slowing down. FF7 did 347m on a sunday with half the seats.

OD 350-480m keeping the low end of the range in place in case of big slow down

OW 1.1B - the sky

 

SW7 all time record weekend ¥1711m 

Just sayin'

 

 

Am I wrong or those OD projections do not include midnights ??

[druv10]

21 minutes ago, peludo said:

Am I wrong or those OD projections do not include midnights ??

They don't. Add in those Total OD could be 500M-600M.

Edited April 5, 2017 by druv10

[peludo]

34 minutes ago, druv10 said:

They don't. Add in those Total OD could be 500M-600M.

[keysersoze123]

I think presales multi will be lower than norm for sure. It would have sold out many peak time shows and so growth would be limited. Its similar to SW7 making 250m OW from 100m+ presales while normal movies only have 1/3 presales and still have humongous OW.

 

@Olive can answer as to how big the screens are. I remember Furious 7 having 110 tickets sold per show for its OD. How big F8 can be. If it has 150K shows and 110 tickets per show sold, it will sell 16.5m tickets for friday and that will translate to about 700m+ yuan based on usual ticket rates !!!!!!!! But realistically it will be around half that number.

Edited April 5, 2017 by keysersoze123

[Olive]

23 hours ago, abra said:

[9 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 4.94m
Fri: 14.20m
Sat: 5.64m

 

Gewara - 26462

[8 days+ 1 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 6.3m
Fri: 19.02m
Sat: 7.47m

OW 36.46m

[7 days+ 23 hours]
Warcraft

Midnight: 22.52m
Fri: 27.78m

[Olive]

25 hours

Ghost in the Shell

Midnight: 0.8m
Fri: 6.98m

OD should target 40-45M yuan

[abra]

48 minutes ago, Olive said:

[8 days+ 1 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 6.3m
Fri: 19.02m
Sat: 7.47m

OW 36.46m

[7 days+ 23 hours]
Warcraft

Midnight: 22.52m
Fri: 27.78m

[8 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 6.38m
Fri: 19.24m
Sat: 7.57m

[8 days+ 0 hours]
Warcraft

Midnight: 22.51m
Fri: 27.78m

Sat: 9.77m

[POTUS 2020]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think presales multi will be lower than norm for sure. It would have sold out many peak time shows and so growth would be limited. Its similar to SW7 making 250m OW from 100m+ presales while normal movies only have 1/3 presales and still have humongous OW.

 

@Olive can answer as to how big the screens are. I remember Furious 7 having 110 tickets sold per show for its OD. How big F8 can be. If it has 150K shows and 110 tickets per show sold, it will sell 16.5m tickets for friday and that will translate to about 700m+ yuan based on usual ticket rates !!!!!!!! But realistically it will be around half that number.

The OD PS multies are increasing though. I'm sure both Mermaid and JTTW were selling out peak shows. They were Mer 2.0 then a year later JT 2.5x. Locals usually have low multies especially for holidays.  WC was 2.6 and RE6 was 2.9 all other HLWD have been over 3 for months now.  JTTW had 107k shows and did 356m. I assume FF8 175k+ shows.  It will have a smaller matinee attendance since it's not a holiday but it can gain with 70% more evening shows. 

Another proof that it isn't frontloaded like WC is MN which is just 1/3(the final should beat WC) while OD will be even as of tonight.  I think at least 3x will happen. It looks like it's going add 6m+ today for another 30%+ gain. 400m+ 

400m - ???? Is the range.

 

Note. Needs 540m OD(+MN) to beat SW7 OW. Food for thought.

75mn/540od/640sat/470sun

1725m/$250m

 

 

Edited April 6, 2017 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

I set up a chart. PS heading to 25.5-26 1am tonight.  JttW2 and WC were very similar. Being a local/holiday and Gamer/Holiday they were both frontloaded.  FF8 is neither. Averaging 30% for 3 days after it cooled down shows that.  Dropping it down to a daily average of 20% starting tomorrow, which I doubt happens as it will take at least another 6m +24% WCS(% may drop but the revenue always holds or increases) , and a similar ramp up at the end with RE6's OD multi comes to 408.  Being a little more optimistic yet still plausible in the second chart and it threaten SW7 Dom OW. 

XR is currently $1=6.9yuan. 

1711m to beat SW7. FF7s first 3 days(Sun,Mon,Tue) 753m/$121m including MN. Shows/Screens have doubled since FF7. Holdovers will likely make just 130m. 1.38B/$200m is looking good. A 9+ rating on Maoyan will be needed.

CBO 3 day record, 1960m/$284m, Jan 28,29,30 2017 Chinese New Year. An SW7 beat and holdovers would still be under the record making it plausable but it would be remarkable since it's not a holiday and not 4 quadrant. 

They may have added 5% screens since CNY. Screen build has been at +2.5% per month for years.

If it bumps 25-30% for the next 3 days this thread will blow up!

 

 

 

	JttW2					WC					FF8
PS 1am	MN PS	% gain	OD PS	% gain		MN PS	% gain	OD PS	% gain		MN PS	% gain	OD PS	% gain
Sa			12.7					8.8					2.5
Su			16.9	32.7%		11.0		12.0	37.1%				5.4	116.0%
Mo			19.4	14.9%		13.0		14.8	23.3%				8.3	53.7%
Tu			22.1	14.2%		14.9		17.0	14.9%				11.4	37.3%
We			25.5	15.3%		16.0		20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	27.2%
Th			29.1	14.1%		18.1	0.0%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	34.5%
Fr			33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.3	29.7%	25.5	30.8%	proj
Sa			38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%				31.0	21.6%	proj
Su			44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%				37.0	19.4%	proj
Mo			51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%				44.3	19.7%	proj
Tu			57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%				53.2	20.1%	proj
We			72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%				66.5	25.0%	proj
Th			88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%				88.0	32.3%	proj
Fr(OD)	11.9		140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%				141.0	60.2%	proj
OD			356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%				408.9	190.0%	proj
Multi				2.54					2.62					2.9
						FF8
						MN PS	% gain	OD PS	% gain
								2.5
								5.4	116.0%
								8.3	53.7%
								11.4	37.3%
						5.0		14.5	27.2%
						6.4	28.0%	19.5	34.5%
						8.3	29.7%	25.5	30.8%
								32.0	25.5%		proj
								40.0	25.0%		proj
								50.0	25.0%		proj
								62.5	25.0%		proj
								81.5	30.4%		proj
								110.0	35.0%		proj
								176.0	60.0%		proj
								528.0	200.0%		proj
									3.00

Edited April 6, 2017 by POTUS

[Olive]

one week to go witnessing history

[keysersoze123]

I dont think it will go that high. 350-400m is the range IMO.

 

Today presales will finish lower than Potus extapolation. I am thinking 23-24m which is slightly less than yesterday.

[POTUS 2020]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think it will go that high. 350-400m is the range IMO.

 

Today presales will finish lower than Potus extapolation. I am thinking 23-24m which is slightly less than yesterday.

It's running 300-350k per hour. Was 400k per hour when I posted, could pick up again later. I carry it out to 1-130 am when PS stop tallying for the night. Should clear 25m.

I think it beats JTTW handily. Let's see if passes in PS in a few days, that the higher multi locks 400m

 

So FF and TF are SW and TA of China 

[KP1025]

The fact that we are even considering (however likely) an opening weekend higher than TFA is crazy. I remember people saying that record would be safe for a very long time, but it looks like it's only a matter of time before China takes it. If not F8 this time, then maybe F9 in 2 years. Or the wildcard Avatar 2 whenever it's released. 

[keysersoze123]

True. With screen expansion it matter of time before some movie breaks SW7 OW record.

[FantasticBeasts]

Let's unite and kill data force.

[POTUS 2020]

GitS PS are ramping up 100% on its last day. Will get over 14m. Could reach the high 50s with 4x PS. 

180m/$26m OW possible

[abra]

23 hours ago, abra said:

[8 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 6.38m
Fri: 19.24m
Sat: 7.57m

[8 days+ 0 hours]
Warcraft

Midnight: 22.51m
Fri: 27.78m

Sat: 9.77m

[7 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 7.88m
Fri: 24.40m
Sat: 9.67m